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Sunday, January 20, 2008

Weekly Technicals - Jan 21 2008


MARKET MOVES :

We had a very bearish move for the Nifty on Friday, as the markets lost 208 points in a day. Hence, for the rest of this week we made some bearish moves for our markets, including the bearish moves on Tuesday and Wednesday. The markets, thus closed at 5705 levels, (-7.98 %) below its previous week''s close. Hence, we have now consecutively closed negative for the past two weeks. The market breadth was also slightly negative throughout the week. We had the BSE REALTY, BSE OIL & GAS and BSE BANKEX Indices making bearish moves for the last week.

MARKETS AHEAD :

We can observe for the Nifty on the daily charts, that the markets have broken below its strong support at 5750 levels. We can also notice that the markets have continuously fallen from the highs at 6357 levels to the lows of 5677 levels last week and a small bounce back can be expected next week. The markets also have a strong support at 5600 levels ,which should hold in the short term, as we have bounced back from these levels on past two occasions. Therefore, we can expect our markets to trade in a broad range between 5600-5900 levels in the short term.

SECTORAL INDICES:

BSE REALTY (12021)

The BSE REALTY Sector has closed at 12021 levels last week, which is (-10.84%) below its previous week''s close. We can also notice on the daily charts that we have a strong support at 11500 levels, which is likely to be tested in the short term. Hence, we expect this sector to move slightly lower to 11400 levels in the short term. We recommend a sell in Omaxe Ltd. and Ansal Infra in this sector.

BSE OIL & GAS (12594)

The BSE OIL & GAS index has closed at 12594 levels last week, which is (-8.95%) below its previous weeks close. We can also notice on the daily charts that we have a strong support at 12000 levels, which seems likely to be tested in the short term. Hence, we can now expect this index to move slightly lower to 11800 levels in the short term. We recommend a sell in Aban Lloyd and GAIL in this sector.