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Tuesday, January 29, 2008

RBI Monetary Policy will dictate the markets


The market may advance tracking firm global markets. However all eyes are the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s quarterly monetary policy review by today, 29 January 2008. As per media reports, a sharp cut in US interest rates last week has increased the possibility of a 25 basis points repo rate cut by Reserve Bank of India.

Meanwhile, as per reports, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday, 28 January 2008, warned of inflationary pressures and said that inflation in India was artificially suppressed as higher international oil prices have not been passed on to domestic consumers. He added that rise in retail prices of fuels could raise inflation from below 4%.

Third quarter December 2007 results so far have been decent. A total of 1052 companies reported 34.80% rise in net profit on 22.90% rise in net sales for Q3 December 2007 over Q3 December 2006.

However market may see high volatility ahead of the expiry of derivative contracts on January 2008 series on Thursday, 31 January 2008. As per reports,

Most Asian markets were trading firm today, 29 January 2008. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (up 2.84% at 24,736.80), Japan's Nikkei (up 1.84% at 13,329.07), China’s Shanghai Composite (up 1.14% to 4,469.50), Singapore's Straits Times (up 1.11% at 3,074.71) and South Korea’s Seoul Composite (up 0.57% at 1,636.51) advanced.

However Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted declined 0.04% at 7,483

US markets surged from lower levels on Monday, 28 January 2008, on broad based buying. Financials showed significant strength, leading a late-day surge after odds increased that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in an effort to support a slowing economy. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 176.72 points, or 1.45%, to 12,383.89. The Standard & Poor's 500 index shot up 23.36 points or 1.76%, to 1,353.97, while the Nasdaq Composite index advanced 23.71 points, or 1.02%, to 2,349.91.

Back home, the BSE Sensex declined 208.88 points or 1.14% at 18,152.78, on Monday 28 January 2008. The broader CNX S&P Nifty declined 109.25 points or 2.03% at 5,274.10 on Monday, 28 January 2008.

As per provisional data, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 1038.45 crore on Monday, 28 January 2008. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of shares worth Rs 597.44 crore

FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 23.05 crore in the futures & options segment on Monday, 28 January 2008. They were net sellers of index futures to the tune of Rs 557.07 crore and bought index options worth Rs 84.04 crore. They were net buyers of stock futures to the tune of Rs 487.65 crore and bought stock options worth Rs 8.43 crore.

Crude oil prices rose today, 29 January 2008 on concerns that crude demand may be hit by fears of a US-led economic slowdown. New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in March, rose 12 cents to $91.11 per barrel.