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Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Global gloom, buy and boom


To improve the golden moment of opportunity, and catch the good that is within our reach, is the great art of life.

The global dip which we have been expecting for some time has finally arrived. Suddenly, optimistic voices so far will sing a different tune and conclude by adding that in the long run, the worries are less. Use these jolts to sit up and take a closer look at your portfolio. The handy cash which you have hopefully kept ready could be put in use more fruitfully today.

The main indices could crumble under the pressure coming from weak global markets. US stocks plunged yesterday amid nagging concerns about the downturn in the housing market and its impact on the American economy, especially consumer spending. A few disappointing earnings too led to the sell-off on Wall Street. As a result, equity markets across the world have fallen sharply.

We expect a weak opening in India too, purely because of the global meltdown. Otherwise, the trend here remains positive given the upsurge in foreign capital inflows as well as good results and benign interest rate scenario. A lot of stock-centric action will continue based on the type of news - negative or positive. Also, the intra-day volatility will escalate ahead of tomorrow's F&O expiry. Don't be surprised if sentiment actually turns around and the key indices may end in the green. If not today, there is a tomorrow.

Cement companies will be under pressure amid news that trade practices regulator MRTPC has ordered an investigation into an alleged price cartelisation by top 14 cement manufacturers. IT stocks will also be under the hammer as forward contracts in the foreign exchange market has turned into discounts from premium. The rupee yesterday hit a new nine-year peak of 40.27 per dollar. Having said that Infosys and Wipro could attract some attention amid media speculation about possible acquisitions by the two software giants.

Lanco Infratech and Reliance Energy will surely be in focus as the Government has rejected the former's bid for the 4000 MW Sasan Ultra Mega Power Project. REL was the second highest bidder for the Sasan project. Paper major BILT will be in action following the announcement of a restructuring, a stock split and share buyback. Hindustan Unilever is likely to gain amid reports that the FMCG major is planning to sell its properties in Mumbai and Bangalore. Allied Digital Services Ltd. will make its debut on the stock market. Spurred by the strong subscription, and going by the grey market indications, the stock is likely to double.

Worries about subprime mortgages and its fallout on the US economy resurfaced on Wall Street after Countrywide Financial, America's biggest mortgage lender, warned that credit problems are spreading beyond the already troubled subprime sector.

Disappointing earnings news from several blue chips contributed to the selloff. DuPont, the third-biggest US chemical maker, posted its steepest decline in two years after sliding home sales cut demand for paint and countertops.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 30.53 points, or 2%, to 1511.04, its steepest retreat since March 13. The Dow decreased 226.47 points, or 1.6%, to 13,716.95. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 50.72 points, or 1.9%, to 2639.86.

Famed bond fund manager Bill Gross added to credit market worries after he warned that the recent woes in the subprime mortgage market were spilling over to junk bonds and said that credit markets are facing a sudden liquidity crisis.

Treasury prices climbed as investors sought safe places for their money, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 4.91% from 4.95% late on Monday. The dollar fell against the euro and the yen.

European shares too closed sharply down. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index slid 1.3% to 390.01. The UK's FTSE 100 closed down 1.9% at 6,498.70, while the German DAX 30 slipped 1.7% to 7,806.79 and the French CAC-40 was down 1.7% at 5,907.47.

Latin American stocks dropped sharply as well. Mexico's IPC equity index slumped 706 points, or 2.2%, to end at 31,462.15. Brazil's Bovespa tumbled 2,242 points, or 3.4%, to shut shop at 55,794.57. The IPSA index in Chile lost 14 points, or 0.4%, to 3,378.29. The RTS index in Russia slid nearly 2% to 2050.

Most Asian markets, barring China, were down sharply this morning on the back of the overnight fall in US stocks. Lower-than-expected earnings from Countrywide Financial, the largest US mortgage provider, fueled concern that a housing slump is worsening in the world's largest economy.

Toyota Motor and Samsung Electronics led declines among companies with US exposure. BHP Billiton dropped in tandem with prices of metals and crude oil.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia Pacific Index lost 0.7% to 160.27 as of 9:55 a.m. in Tokyo, after rising 0.9% to a record yesterday. All 10 industry groups included in the index declined, with materials stocks such as BHP posting the steepest drop.

The Nikkei in Tokyo slid 199 points to 17,802, set for its biggest drop since June 8. Nissan Motor led exporters lower after the automaker reported its third consecutive drop in quarterly profit. Strength in the yen also hurt the sentiment. Markets open for trading elsewhere in the region declined.

The Hang Seng in Hong Kong was down 149 points to 23,323 while the Kospi in Seoul fell by 12 points to 1980 and the Straits Times in Singapore dropped 40 points to 3824.

An index of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME), including copper and nickel, lost 0.7% yesterday. Copper fell 0.8%, while nickel dropped 3.6%.

Meanwhile, crude oil for September delivery fell as much as 0.6% in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange on speculation that US gasoline production will be sufficient to meet late summer demand. Futures were recently at $73.17, after a three-day, 3.1% loss.

Strong cues from the International markets and positive momentum from previous trading session boosted the key indices at open. After opening with a gap markets turned choppy ahead of F&O expiry as bulls faced stiff resistance at higher levels. Benchmark Sensex pared its gains as profit booking in the index heavyweights like Bharti, Tata Motors and Hindustan Unilever dragged the markets lower. However key indices managed to end on a flat note led by Capital Good and IT bellwethers Infosys and Satyam Computers.

BSE Capital Good and IT indexes were the major gainers. On the other hand Auto and Pharma stocks disappointed. Even the Mid-Cap and the Small Ca indexes finished a tad lower. Finally, BSE 30-share Sensex added 62 points to close at 15794. NSE-50 Nifty added 1 point to close at 4620.

HDIL opened at Rs538 on the National stocks Exchange today. The scrip was up by 11% to Rs559 hitting an intra-day high of Rs575 and a low of Rs535 and recorded volumes of over 2,00,00,000 shares on NSE. The IPO came in with a price band of Rs.430-500/share, and was priced at Rs.500/share, face value Rs.10.

Reliance Energy surged by over 7.5% to Rs769 after the company declared dividend of Rs5.3 per share. The scrip touched intra-day high of Rs783 and a low of Rs718 and recorded volumes of over 49,00,000 shares on NSE.

ONGC advanced by 1% to Rs916 after the company plans a venture with Gail, for sale of Gas. The company also announced that it expects gas output from East Coast fields from 2012. The scrip touched intra-day high of Rs925 and a low of Rs911 and recorded volumes of over 8,00,000 shares on NSE.

Reliance Industries ended flat at Rs1910. The company announced that it submitted its proposal to build the greenfield fertilizer plant in the country. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1931 and a low of Rs1908 and recorded volumes of over 23,00,000 shares on NSE.

RPG Cables lost by 2.6% to Rs51. The company announced that it secured order worth Rs330mn from MTNL. The scrip touched intra-day high of Rs56 and a low of Rs51 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.

NTPC surged over 3.5% to Rs163 after the company announced that it has signed a MoU with Asian Development Bank (ADB), a multilateral Development Financial Institution to establish a Private Ltd Company in joint venture initially among the Company and other strategic investors with equity shareholding of upto 50% by the Company. The scrip touched intra-day high of Rs166 and a low of Rs158 and recorded volumes of over 94,00,00,000 shares on NSE.

ABG Shipyard jumped by over 6.5% to Rs487 after the company declared that it has secured $350mn order from Shipping PSL, Thailand. The scrip touched intra-day high of Rs510 and a low of Rs455 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.

Capital Good stocks continued its upward trend led by gains in BHEL as the scrip was up by over 3.5% to Rs1831, L&T surged by 2% to Rs2670, ABB gained 1% to Rs1148. However, Gammon India lost 1.2% to Rs492.

Metal stocks gained momentum on back of high commodity prices. Jindal Stainless rallied by over 6% to Rs164, SAIL surged nearly by 3% to Rs160, Hindalco gained by 1% to Rs186, Tata Steel added 0.2% to Rs721 and JSW Steel marginally gains 0.6% to Rs735 after the company announced its Q1 result with net profit at Rs4.2bn (up 151%) and net sales at Rs21.91bn (up 37%).

Auto stocks were in reverse gear. M&M dropped by over 3.5% to Rs795, Hero Honda was down by 1.6% to Rs697 after the company’s Q1 net income fell 20% at Rs1.9bn and sales at Rs24.48bn (up 3.5%), Tata Motors slipped 2.5% to Rs747 and TVS motors edged lower by 0.7% to Rs62.

Realty stocks also witnessed selling pressure. DLF declined by 2.2% to Rs656 and Sobha was down by 1.2% to Rs928. On the other hand Unitech added 2% to Rs588.

Pharma stocks were a mixed bag. Aurobindo Pharma was down by 2.5% to Rs686, Cipla slipped 1.6% to Rs188 and Sun Pharma dropped 1.6% to Rs971. However, Dr Reddy’s lab gained 1% to Rs672 and Sterling Biotech added 1.4% to Rs202.

Results Today:

3i Infotech, ABG Shipyard, Alstom Projects, Bank of India, Bombay Dyeing, Canara Bank, CONCOR, Essar Oil, Euro Ceramics, Global Vectra, Hindustan Motors, HDFC, IndusInd Bank, IDFC, Marico, Matrix Labs, Nicholas Piramal, ONGC, Patel Engineering, Patni, PNB, RCF, Reliance Capital, Shringar Cinemas, SAIL, Sterlite Industries, Suzlon, Thermax, Thomas Cook, Usha Martin, Welspun India, Wockhardt and Yes Bank.

Fund Activity:

FIIs were net buyers of Rs10.71bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Tuesday. On the other hand, local institutions were net sellers at Rs3.11bn. In the F&O segment, FIIs were net sellers at Rs1.06bn.

On Monday, FIIs poured in Rs10.96bn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds were net sellers of Rs485mn.

Major bulk Deals:

Kotak Mahindra has picked up Balasore Alloys; Goldman Sachs has purchased Eastern Silk; Goldman Sachs has bought Fedders Lloyd; Bear Stearns has sold Karuturi Networks; Kotak has bought Pioneer Embroideries while Merrill Lynch has sold the stock.

Insider Trades:

Oil Country Tubular Ltd: ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd has purchased from open market 6599100 equity shares of the company on 20th July, 2007.

Wockhardt Limited: Life Insurance Corporation of India has purchased from open market 124624 equity shares of the company on 16th July, 2007.

Lower Circuit:

Kothari Products, Prism Cement, IID Forgings and Empire industries.

Upper Circuit:

GVK Power, Amara Raja, Ganesh Forgings, Jaybharat Textile, TCI Industries, Bank of Rajasthan and BF Utilities.

Delivery Delight (Rising Price & Rising Delivery):

Apollo Tyres, Dabur India, Dr. Reddy's, Federal Bank, Infosys, Jaiprakash Associates and Nagarjuna Construction.

Abnormal Delivery:

Bombay Dyeing, Reliance Comunications, 3M India, Amtek Auto, Neyveli Lignite, BL Kashyap, PTC, MRPL, Voltas, Sterlite and VSNL.

Major News & Announcements:

S&P revises Infosys outlook to positive from stable

Kotak Mahindra Bank Q1 profit at Rs1.46bn (up 40%)

Kotak Bank plans to raise $300mn from fresh equity issue

Britannia Q1 profit at Rs361mn (up 19%), sales at Rs5.88bn (up 18.5%)

Gail, ONGC plans JV for sale of gas

ABG Shipyard secures $350mn order from Thai firm

Simplex Infrastructure to consider fund raising plan on 31st July

Castrol India Q2 net profit at Rs659.3mn up (31%), sales at Rs5.4bn (up 13.4%)

Hero Honda Q1 sales at Rs24.48bn (up 3.5%), net income (down 20%) at Rs1.9bn

JSW Steel Q1 net profit at Rs4.2bn (up 151%), net sales at Rs21.91bn (up 37%)

REL declares dividend of Rs5.3 per share

BILT to split each share into five and buy back 40% of its stock