Weekly Close: Crucial week ahead !

This was yet another good week for Indian markets. This was on the back of sanguine global markets. The Fed rate cut is being discounted. US Government seems to be worried about the credit market. The Housing sector is in bad shape and that is really getting bad. The Government is really making efforts to save the economy. Someone will have to pay the price and it seems it will be the lenders there. Thats bad news for the Markets but they seemed to have ignored the same. May be the devil is in the detail and we should know more over time.

Indian Markets rallied and again it was a week of the mid caps. Mid caps were flaring one after another and there was regular churn. IT stocks as a sector rallied on the last day and it was quite a sharp run up. They have been underowned and valuations is what everyone talked about. We are still not convinced here and this may only be a trading bet. Another sector seeing strength was pharma. This was out of action for some time and this one saw some interest.

Nifty made a new high this week and had the highest weekly close. It ended up by 3.7%. Sensex up 3.6% for the week.. Almost all Nifty stocks gained except three. ACC (-2%), GRASIM (-4%) and Hero Honda (-4%)were the losers. Oil and gas counter has done well. BPCL up 9.2%, HPCL up 10%, GAIL up 9.9%, ONGC up 1.9%, RPL up 3%.

Telecom stocks too gained despite the policy issue. VSNL +2.9%; RCOM +8.6%; MTNL +3%; BHARTI +2.4%. Capital goods were bouyant with ABB +3%, BHEL +2%, L&T +3% Siemens +6.5%, Suzlon +2.4%. Among power stocks. TATA POWER +13.7%, REL +11.47%, NTPC +3.95%. Auto's M&M +7.2%, Maruti +2.37%, Tata motors +4.48%. Metals stocks were not cooling off despite metals being down. Sterlite +6.5%; Sail +5.76%; Nalco +3.6%; Hindalco +1.67%; ICICI +5.7%, PNB +4.7%, SBI +5.8%. IT bounced from there bottom. Infosys +6.7%, Satayam +1%, WIPRO +9%; TCS +5.7%.

This week we had research on Bharat Fertilisers where the real estate story has started to pan out with the company having begun the booking for the Majiwada property. Do read the note for the potential upsides.

We reran notes on Moldtek. This is one company into the plastic barrels and to add to that is the structural design division.

We had a note on TTK Prestige where the run up happened. The company is expected to do quite well and the fruits of its restructuring and investing into systems. The company's land deal is probably what excited.. but we reran that research.

We had more research on Shringar this week and really the results are not as entertaining as the theatres may be. But its all about risk and that you should read our views on the stock.

We had research on Lok housing where we were surprised with the run up. What puts us off is that the Management stake increased to 51% from 5% when it merged a promoter owned company. Such transactions are hardly above board. Leaves you with a poor taste in the mouth. The deal for the salt Pan lands could also get resolved and thats whati could be the wild card here.. The stock was flaring this week. Do read for more details.. if you really want to know what could be in store here. The money raising proposition is what could excite some..

There was more research on Solar, LG Balkrishna and many more as always a very researchful week.

Technicals: Sensex is finding it tough to close above the big 20k mark. We see some good profit booking happening in the Midcap and Smallcap segment. Traders are advised to take caution in those segments and move their money out back to Largecaps for the rest of the month. Sensex support seen at 19500 and 19330.

Next week will be the big event which is the Fed rate cut. Thats expected. Do read our US Special on Economy : Taking stock ! There is something quite different which the US Government is attempting this time. US markets have reacted positively and that surprises us. The details of that probably are yet to be revealed. In any case, its still going to be tough for the US and we believe that next week the markets will react to these proposals. Its unlikely to be positive.

The question to be answered is "what after the Fed cut?. "Our view is that a its going to be only a 25 basis point cut. In case it is a 50 basis point cut markets would give a flare up but then there is nothing much beyond that. The news will continue to be negative.. and scope for cuts will be reduced in the US markets. Indian Markets will remain a story of valuations and new stocks and themes. It will be a wait and watch. We suggest that its best to have higher levels of cash and look for investments only after the rate cut news gets at least a week behind us.