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Monday, November 12, 2007

Market Close: Is Diwali over for markets ?


Festive mood for market seems to be over. So far India markets rallied really high irrespective of global woes. But now once again global cues shows the direction for the Indian Markets. US is bleeding on financial crises. Indian markets started off with gap down and but recovery was not as fast as it used to be. Rally so far was very strong but post P-notes issue the fund flow has slowed down and fresh entrant would wait for lower levels to get in. Any high may be used as opportunity to book profits. Overall weakness prevailed across the board except power stocks especially mid caps and FMCG. Some stock specific action was seen in mid caps.

Sensex ended down by 170 points at 18737. Weighing on the Sensex are losses in Bharti (8375, -4 percent), HDFC Bk (1478,-4 percent), Satyam (413.1,-5 percent), ONGC (1173,-5 percent) and Infosys (1644,-3.48 percent). Losses are restricted by gains in NTPC (257,+5 percent), ITC (177.85,+5 percent), Cipla (182,+3 percent), SBI (2240,+3.5 percent).

FMCG showed some sign's of revival in weak markets. This counter normally assumed to defensive in weak market. Britannia is our pick in FMCG counter. The company was bleeding badly in high raw material scenario and intense competition. However, the company has managed well to get out of all the odds and perform well. Numbers for this quarter was extremely good. Only worry is tag of war between the promoter's (Wadias vs Danon). However company is doing well in spite of all odds and that gives us some confidence. Do read our note on this one to get more insights.

Solar Explosives is the one which has been exploding in last few months. The company is into explosive which goes for mining. Explosive sector was extremely fragmented among small players earlier. Making money was really tough and small player were wiped out which brought in consolidation and changed the business dynamics. Company performance was good..but there is lot more here to come. The coal mine allocation is key here. With new mining areas being allocated Solar stands to be biggest beneficiary. Today the company announced acquisition of 74% stake in Navbharat Coalfields. Navabharat has applied for coal mines and Solar expects to bank on that. For now its really difficult to comment on this. We will update you more on this one soon.

Technically Speaking: The indices opened with a negative bias in morning managed to erase some of the losses. From the lows the Sensex has recovered close to 400 points and the Nifty over 145 points. These points to some support kicking in although the only sectoral indices that registered some gains were the FMCG. If there can further help from the Global picture, we can see some pull back upto 5800 on the Nifty. The markets are not out of the woods yet, traders are advised to wait for further evidence of strength in the following sessions. Nifty 5800 ~ 19600 on Sensex.