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Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Fear will make you lose


Train yourself to let go of the things you fear to lose.

As gloom and even more gloom continues all around (phew, what was the mood a few weeks ago!), its time to stay firm on sound stocks. Stop taking a day’s or week’s view and losing sleep. Any change in sentiment and you can hope for a good bounce on your counters. The local bulls managed to survive the global carnage yesterday though it was on lower volume. The market breadth was also negative. Still, things are pretty okay this morning, with no great fall in any particular market. In fact, markets in Hong Kong and Taiwan are in the green while that in Tokyo is down slightly.

But, US shares ended down yet again, with the Dow Jones closing under 13,000 for the first time in nearly three months amid mounting worries over the credit market crisis. Most Indian ADRs ended in the red. What is also of some concern for the local bulls is that FII inflows have slowed down considerably. Monday’s provisional data shows net sales worth about Rs12bn in the cash segment and around Rs13bn in the F&O segment. The steep fall in industrial production growth in September is also a worry, though one will have to wait for more data to arrive at a firm conclusion about a slowdown in economic activity. It looks as though interest rates have peaked out in India but what the market and India Inc. are craving for is a reduction in borrowing costs. Whether the RBI will oblige in January only time will tell. Coming to today's session, we expect an improved start than yesterday, but trade will remain rangebound and choppy.

IL&FS Investsmart may be under some pressure after E*Trade shares plunged overnight in the US. The American online brokerage giant is apparently facing write-offs owing to the correction in the housing sector. Unitech is likely to be in action as the RBI has approved the plan to hike the investment ceiling for FIIs. Fortis Healthcare might rise as it is looking at expanding its footprint in South India through another acquisition in Chennai.

Satra Properties India has announced a 2:1 bonus share issue. The company's Board has decided to diversify the business of the company in Retail, Merchandising and Power Generation. Royal Orchid Hotels' subsidiary Icon Hospitality has acquired Bangalore-based Hotel Royal Orchid Central for Rs820mn. The acquired property has 130 deluxe category rooms with two fine dining restaurants includes bar and other facilities.

Nucleus Software Exports has won a contract from Bank M (Tanzania) Ltd. for implementing its Cash@will solution. HCL Technologies has been added as one of Artesia Digital Media Group's select consulting partners and will serve as a systems integrator for the latter's products.

Jindal Steel intends to split each equity share of Rs5 each into five shares of Re1 each. Gati could attract some attention as the Hyderabad-based logistics service provider has entered into air cargo segment. Jyoti Ltd. might gain amid reports that it could bag a large irrigation order and is also likely to sell Vadodara property for funding its expansion near Anand.

US stocks extended their losing streak on Monday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing below 13,000 for the first time in about three minths despite some strength in the financial sector and lower crude oil prices.

After dropping at the start and then rebounding to a 100-point gain, the Dow closed down 55 points, or 0.4%, at 12,987.50, down 175 points from its high for the day. Aug. 16 was the last time the blue-chip index closed under 13,000.

The broader S&P 500 index slipped 15 points, or 1%, to 1,439.18, while the Nasdaq Composite index declined 44 points, or 1.7%, to 2,584.13.

Fresh concerns emerged over the sub-prime turmoil following reports by both The Wall Street Journal and The Times of London that warned of possible writedowns from British banking giant HSBC.

In addition, shares of the online brokerage E-Trade plunged 59% after the company warned last week that the deteriorating value of its mortgage-backed securities may force it to take significant writedowns in the fourth quarter.

Some battered financials, however, bucked the trend including Citigroup, whose shares gained 1.5% and Goldman Sachs which ended 1.6% higher.

Crude oil fell more than $2 per barrel on reports that OPEC would discuss increasing its output at an upcoming meeting. Light, sweet crude for December fell $1.70 to settle at $94.62 a barrel in afternoon trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Treasury market was closed for the Veterans Day holiday.

Private equity major Blackstone posted a net loss in the most recent quarter, hurt by compensation charges. Blackstone shares slipped over 8% on the news, even though it reported higher revenue in its core private equity business, helped by higher fees.

IBM announced that it would purchase the business software maker Cognos for about $5bn.

Gold prices tumbled after last week's big run-up, as COMEX gold for December fell $27 to $807.70 an ounce. The dollar rebounded against the euro but was lower versus the yen.

Another volatile day

Weak cues from the International markets, selling pressure in the index heavyweights and yen-carry trade unwinding again coming in the limelight dragged the benchmark Sensex to slip over 3% and NSE Nifty dropped over 2.5% in early trades on Monday.

However, buying momentum in the late afternoon trades in the FMCG and select PSU stocks lifted the benchmark Sensex from its low of 18,333 to finally close at 18,737 losing merely 170 points and Nifty closed 46 points lower to close at 5,617.

Among the 30-scrips of Sensex 18 stocks ended lower and only 11 scrips finished in positive terrain.

Among BSE sectoral indices, BSE Realty index was the top loser, (down 3.08%), followed by BSE Oil & gas index (2.28%) and BSE IT index (down 2.78%)

Aurionpro Solutions ended flat at Rs399. The company announced that it has entered into an all cash deal to acquire 100% control in Integro Technologies Pte. Ltd. (Integro) a leading Banking products company headquartered in Singapore.

Integro's product portfolio includes products in the areas of Loan origination, Collateral Management for Basel II Compliance and Internet banking. The scrip has touched an intra-day high of Rs399 and a low of Rs388.

Sterlite optical edged higher by 0.3% to Rs282. The company announced that they expanded Optical fiber capacity to 12m km. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs285 and a low of Rs269 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.

Suryachakra Power was locked at 20% upper circuit to Rs33.4 after the company announced that they would set up 1200MW Coal-Based power project. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs33.4 and a low of Rs26.5 and recorded volumes of over 68,00,000 shares on NSE.

United Spirits fell 1.6% to Rs1816. According to reports, Diageo Plc is in talks to buy as much as 13% of the company. Diageo may buy the stake in the company for as much as $600mn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1878 and a low of Rs1800 and recorded volumes of over 38,000 shares on NSE.

Bihar Tubes declined 1% to Rs138. The company announced that they have entered into Contract with BHEL. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs138 and a low of Rs129 and recorded volumes of over 54,000 shares on NSE.

After plunging over 7% Jindal Steel recovered over 2% to close at Rs10,714 after reports stated that the Indian steel and power producer's planned iron-ore mine in Bolivia may be delayed as opposition senators seek to change legislation that would create a joint venture between the company and government. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs10,878 and a low of Rs9,600 and recorded volumes of over 2,00,000 shares on NSE.

Reliance Industries has slipped 3.6% to Rs2633. According to reports India's most valuable company may partner Jet Airways (India) to develop airports in the western state of Maharashtra The scrip has touched an intra-day high of Rs2675 and a low of Rs2602 and has recorded volumes of over 7,00,000 shares on NSE.

SBI surged over 3.7% to Rs2245 after reports stated India's Cabinet may consider by November 22 the nation's second-biggest lender's plan to raise as much as Rs180bn by selling shares through a rights offer. The Cabinet may consider the share-sale plan either on November 15 or November 22 The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs2255 and a low of Rs2080 and recorded volumes of over 18,00,000 shares on NSE.

Stocks in News:

Reliance Industries has signed a production sharing agreement for a second block in Oman.

Shortage of rigs is likely to delay development of ONGC’s KG basin block by a year.

RCom is in race for acquiring 51% stake in Telkcom Kenya.

Tata Power, Reliance Power and Lanco Infratech among the 13 bidders for the fourth UMPP project at Tilaiya, Jharkhand.

GAIL has appealed to the Government to exempt it from the subsidy sharing mechanism.

IOC is planning to set up its third petrochemical unit at Haldia.

Reliance Energy has planned a capex of Rs40.6bn in Orissa.

Aditya Birla Group’s retail arm is in talks with Parsvnath Developers to setup a hyper market and a super market in Delhi.

Fortis is looking to buy 450-bed Lifeline Hospital chain in Chennai.

Dr Reddy's is planning to launch 200 generic products in US over the next five years.

JSPL’s project to develop iron ore reserves and set up a steel plant in Bolivia is expected to be delayed.

JSPL is considering to split its equity shares from Rs5 to Re1.

IVRCL has acquired Hyderabad based Alkor Petroo which has 5 exploration blocks in Yemen and Egypt along with GSPC.

Lanco Infratech has bagged Rs730mn contract to build a hospital in Andhra Pradesh.

UB Group owned Bouvet-Ladubay to invest €10mn to more than double its capacity.

East India Hotels is planning to buy a 30% stake in a soon to be formed hotel subsidiary of Puravankara Projects.

NHPC plans to add 25,000MW capacity in next 20 years.

Gulf Oil International has bought Petromin, a Saudi Arabia based lubricant maker.

Havells India has forayed into healthcare business with an acquisition of a 140 bed hospital in Faridabad.

Apollo Group of hospitals plans to double the number of clinics and pharmacy chain in next two years.

Ashok Leyland is eyeing JV’s in Europe and US for manufacturing of buses.

Yes Bank has signed a foreign currency loan of US$35mn agreement with Wachovia Bank.

IIP for September grew at 6.4% compared to 12% in September 2006.

Government has announced to introduce number portability in phases from 2008.

Government is likely to change excise duty structure on diesel and petrol from a mix of advalorem and specific to only specific.

Government has announced that all radio frequencies offering 3G services would be offered via an auction.

TDSAT has directed the Government not to allocate any spectrum till December 12.

The Government may not allow one bidder to operate more than two UMPPs.

RBI has given in an in-principle nod to invest US$5bn of forex reserves annually to fund infrastructure projects.

Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka are set to directly or indirectly guarantee property titles in urban areas.

FII Investment Trend:

FIIs were net sellers of Rs11.94bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Monday while the local institutions were net buyers of Rs659.9mn.

In the F&O segment, FIIs were net sellers of Rs12.72bn. Foreign funds net sold Indian equities worth Rs2.87bn on Thursday.