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Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Wednesday woes...Bears check in


The lofty pine is oftenest shaken by the winds; High towers fall with a heavier crash; And the lightning strikes the highest mountain. And the lightning strikes the highest mountain

It’s set to be One Fine Day for the bears who have all it takes for things to go their way. Liquidity may see a pipe burst as SEBI’s paper suggests foreign institutional investors may not be allowed to issue or renew offshore derivative instruments. In fact they may be required to extinguish existing participatory notes in 18 months. The regulator has sought a response to proposals by Oct. 20.

The rupee is set to fall from near a 9 1/2-year high. Who knows, the optimists may look at some IT counters at lower levels.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned in a speech that weakness in the housing market would likely drag on growth through early next year. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank's rate cut in September has shown signs of success, but cautioned that lenders and investors must bear responsibility for financial decisions that caused the subprime mortgage meltdown.

The Nasdaq and Dow are down less than a percent.

Among the Indian ADR’s, HDFC Bank was the major loser, it fell by over 10%. Others like ICICI Bank, Satyam Computer, Sterlite Industtries and Patni Computers declined over 5% each.

Japanese stocks slipped after Wells Fargo & Co. said it lost almost $900 million on home equity and consumer loans, renewing concern the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis will reduce earnings at financial companies.

Volatility to continue!

Volatility was back on the bourses as markets closed on a flat note. Alternate bouts of buying and selling often tossed the key indices in positive and negative terrain. However, after hitting a low of 18,777, benchmark Sensex recovered over 250 points to end almost unchanged.

Among the BSE sectoral indices, BSE IT index (down 1.77%), BSE FMCG index (down 0.96%) and BSE Auto index (down 0.26%). However, BSE Bank index held firm (up 2.7%). Even the Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap indexes added 0.5% higher each.

Finally, BSE 30-share benchmark Sensex ended 6 points lower to close at 19,051. NSE Nifty ended flat at close at 5,668.

IDBI slipped by 4% to Rs141. The company announced its Q2 net profit at Rs1.56bn (up 12.2%) and revenue at Rs23.6bn (up 43.9%). The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs149 and a low of Rs141 and recorded volumes of over 17,00,000 shares on NSE.

HDIL gave up its gains as the scrip lost 1% to close at Rs757. Reports stated that the company won the bid for developing 276 acres of slum land near Mumbai International Airport. The scrip has touched an intra-day high of Rs825 and a low of Rs735 and has recorded volumes of over 36,00,000 shares on NSE.

IFCI slipped 2% to Rs86. According to reports the company decided to offer 30-odd banks and financial institutions, which helped in restructuring its liabilities, the option to convert a part of their debt worth Rs14.8bn into equity. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs92 and a low of Rs85 and recorded volumes of over 4,00,00,000 shares on NSE.

Patel Engineering rallied by over 16% to Rs764 after reports stated that the company has entered into a MoU with Arunachal Pradesh government for setting up 100MW Gongri Hydel project in West Kameng district. The scrip has touched an intra-day high of Rs777 and a low of Rs660 and has recorded volumes of over 10,00,000 shares on NSE.

ONGC dropped 1.2% to Rs1175. Media reports stated that the company has tied up with Ocean Rig (a Norwegian company) for supply of two rigs on a nomination basis for a sum of Rs81.8bn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1220 and a low of Rs1150 and recorded volumes of over 22,00,000 shares on NSE.

IT stocks continued its down run as rupee continues to strengthen against the USD. Infosys slipped 3% to Rs1866, Wipro was down 1.3% to Rs485 and TCS slipped 0.6% to Rs1068.

Banking stocks were in demand led by gains in the index heavyweights like ICICI Bank, the scrip was up by over 5.5% to Rs1159, PNB advanced 2.6% to Rs539 and HDFC Bank added 0.6% to Rs1507.

Realty stocks were also among the major gainers. Akruti Nirman rose over 3.5% to Rs1013, DLF advanced 2.5% to Rs918, Parsvnath gained 1.8% to Rs392, Unitech was up 1.8% to Rs353 and Sobha added 5.3% to Rs1050.

Volatile session ended on a flat note. After opening with strong gains, key indices witnessed wild intra-day gyrations. Alternate bouts of buying and selling often tossed the key indices in positive and negative terrain. However, after hitting a low of 18,777, benchmark Sensex recovered over 250 points to end almost unchanged.

As was evident on Tuesday, the market is likely to experience some jitters in the near term after the recent rally. One must be prepared for some moderation. Sticking to a stock centric approach is the right move in most cases, especially in the current scenario. One should always lock in some gains and keep some cash handy for investments in frontline counters later when the market softens. We expect the market to open on a cautious note.

Stocks in News:

Petronet LNG is diversifying into power sector by setting up a gas based power plant to generate 1,100 MW of power.

ONGC has tied up with Ocean Rig (a Norwegian company) for supply of two rigs on a nomination basis for a sum of Rs81.8bn.

RIL is in discussions with four global players for partnerships to explore new regions in the US, South America and West Asia.

TCS is targeting 20 large deals which are above $50mn.

Apollo Tyres is likely to be the after-sales partner for Tata’s 1 lakh car.

Wockhardt is set to acquire US drug maker Morton Grove Pharmaceuticals Inc for $70mn.

UCO Bank is planning to raise Rs4.5bn via FPO during Q4 FY08.

Future Group is planning a 50:50 JV with Mauritius based Aeoterm Logistics.

HDIL has won the bid for developing 276 acres of slum land near Mumbai International Airport.

IFCI has decided to offer 30-odd banks and financial institutions, which helped in restructuring its liabilities, the option to convert a part of their debt worth Rs14.8bn into equity.

JSW Steel has received a permit to mine iron ore for its planned 10mn ton plant in Jharkhand.

Kinetic Motors plans to issue 8.71 lakh preferential shares to San Yang Motors, post which the latter’s holding in the company will increase to 16%.

Ashok Leyland is planning a 49:51 JV with a Black Economic Empowerment Partner to introduce products like 4x4s and luxury buses in South Africa.

HDFC is likely to finalize Ergo, the insurance arm of Munich Re, as its 26% foreign partner for the general insurance business.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has formally conveyed to US President George Bush about difficulties to push through the nuclear deal.

The Government is planning to keep the equity raised from ADRs and GDRs out of the FDI cap for select sectors.

The Delhi Government has slashed electricity rates by one rupee for domestic consumption up to 150 units a month.

The DoT is planning to freeze the amount of spectrum per operator. Also, operators might be asked to pay for more than 10Mhz capacity.

Sugar production in India is estimated to increase by 3.9% yoy to 29.3mn tons in 2007-08.

Fund Activity:

FIIs were net buyers of Rs28.69bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Monday while the local institutions pulled out Rs2.81bn. In the F&O segment, foreign funds were net buyers at Rs5.79bn.

FIIs were net buyers of Rs7.81bn in the cash segment on Friday. With this, their net investment in the month has crossed US$4.5bn and year-to-date the same is US$16.74bn.

Major Bulk Deals:

Abn Amro has bought Bank of Rajasthan; Lehman Brothers has sold Genus Powers; Morgan Stanly has purchased Hindustan Construction; Goldman Sachs has picked up Lok Housing; Reliance Capital has sold Trent Ltd.

Upper Circuit:

RIIL, Rei Agro, McNally Bharat, Marathon Nextgen, IID Forgings, Prakash Industries, Jai Corp, Rap Media, Assam Company, BF Utilities and Vakran Software.

Lower Circuit:

Victoria Mills