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Friday, October 19, 2007

Bhool bhulaiya…Bulls and bears lost in a maze


Just think how happy you would be if you lost everything you have right now, and then got it back again.

Yesterday’s losers may well be today’s gainers. The strong set of results announced by blue chip giants Reliance and Wipro could come to the rescue of bulls who got hunted or temporarily haunted by the bears. We also have other large cap companies like ICICI Bank, Bajaj Auto, Ambuja Cements and Tech Mahindra declaring their results today. Barring Bajaj Auto, which will be affected by lower sales volume, others should be able to meet market expectations. Against this background, the market should open better.
Weakness in Asian and other global markets could check the advance of the local bulls though.

We don’t want to reproduce the rumors but more or less all of them have been laid to rest. Having said that we still have the sword of P-Notes hanging over our heads. There is still a lot of uncertainty, confusion and nervousness with regard to the SEBI's proposal. This will take time to play itself out over the next few months. Hence, the market will remain volatile with intermittent bouts of buying and selling.

The global cues could also act as a spoil sport. The market movements may be a thriller. Comic for those who watch from outside and psychic for those in it.

The Finance Minister has said he may ask SEBI to consider extending the 18-month period for the unwinding of the outstanding investments in P-Notes. Any easing in the SEBI proposal could lead to a rebound. But we will have to wait and see if that actually happens. The overall outlook on the Indian economy and the market remains strong as ever. Outflows from FIIs are the biggest risk as of now. Plus, we have to take into account global factors like crude oil at $90 per barrel and concerns over the US economy.

Shares of Saamya Biotech Ltd. will get listed on the bourses today.

Key Results Today: Ambuja Cements, Asian Paints, Bajaj Auto, Emco, Geometric Software, GE Shipping, Greaves Cotton, Grindwell Norton, GTL Infra, ICICI Bank, Kirloskar Bros., Tech Mahindra, Uttam Galva and Welspun India.

Disappointing results from Bank of America and Washington Mutual, coupled with oil hitting the $90 per barrel mark weighed on Wall Street on Thursday. At the same time, bond prices rose for a fourth straight day amid renewed concerns that the credit-market trouble may deepen, threatening economic growth.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index finished almost flat at 1,540.08. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4 points to 13,888.96. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 7 points, or 0.2%, to 2,799.31, helped by a 1% gain in Google.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers and winners were narrowly mixed on volume of almost 1.27 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by a slim margin on volume of 2.03 billion shares.

A government report showed initial jobless claims rose more than expected last week. The dollar fell to a record low against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again. Interest-rate futures show a 70% chance that the Fed will cut its target rate for overnight loans by 25 bps to 4.5%.

A jump in oil prices helped boost an index of S&P 500 energy shares by 0.4%. Crude for November delivery increased 2.4% to $89.47 per barrel in New York after the dollar's drop enhanced the appeal of commodities as an investment.

The front-month crude contract reached $90.02 a barrel in extended trading in Asia, the highest price since trading began in 1983. It was at $89.54 at 9:58 a.m. Singapore time.

Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 4.49% from 4.55% late on Wednesday. In currency news, the dollar fell to another all-time low versus the euro and also dipped versus the yen. Dollar-traded commodities including gold rallied on the weak dollar. COMEX gold for December delivery rose $6.40 to settle at $768.70 an ounce.

After the close of trade, Google reported higher quarterly sales and earnings that topped estimates. Shares were volatile in extended-hours trading. AMD reported a lower-than-expected quarterly loss.

Friday is also the 20th anniversary of Black Monday, one of the biggest market crashes in history, when the Dow lost 22.6% in a single day.

European shares closed lower, pressured by weakness in the banking sector, as investors considered mixed earnings from Nokia, SAP and Nestle. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index declined 0.84% to 383.37. The UK's FTSE 100 slipped 1% to 6,609.40, the German DAX 30 declined 0.8% to 7,921.40, and the French CAC-40 lost 0.9% to 5,767.24.

In the emerging markets, the Bovespa in Brazil was up 0.1% at 63,261 while the IPC index in Mexico gained 0.35% to 32,836. Russia's RTS index fell 1% to 2136 and the ISE National-30 index in Turkey slumped 3.3% to 71,446.

Most Asian stock benchmarks were down this morning, after Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said that problems stemming from US subprime mortgage losses persist and have increased uncertainty in financial markets.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index slipped 0.7% to 166.19 at 10:38 a.m. in Tokyo. Financial stocks were the index's biggest drags. The benchmark has lost 1.2% this week, set to decline for the first time since the five days ended Sept. 14.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 1.7% to 16,811.50, set for its biggest drop since Sept. 18. Markets also fell in Australia, South Korea and Singapore. Hong Kong is shut for a holiday today.

In a highly volatile trading session benchmark Sensex plummeted over 700 points and NSE Nifty fell over 200 points with sensitive index registering its biggest ever single day fall.

Key indices witnessed wild gyrations as most of the key sectoral indices were in momentum for major part of the trading session and then fell sharply in afternoon trading erasing all their early gains on back of heavy selling pressure all over the bourses.

After hitting all time high of 19,198.6, Sensex hit a low of 17,771.1 finally closing below the 18k mark at 17,998.3. NSE Nifty also lost 208 points to close at 5,351.

ACC dropped the most in 17 months after India's biggest cement maker, reported third-quarter profit missing analyst estimates. The company reported Q3 net profit at Rs2.92bn (up 29.7%) and sales at Rs16.79bn (up 22.19%). The scrip fell over 13% to Rs1038 touching an intra-day high of Rs1244 and a low of Rs1000 and has recorded volumes of over 21,00,000 shares on NSE.

Shasun Chemical rallied by over 10% to Rs78 amid reports that Reliance, Ranbaxy and Mylan Labs are vying for the company's API business. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs85 and a low of Rs74 and recorded volumes of over 11,00,000 shares on NSE.

L&T lost by 3.5% to Rs3178. The company announced that they have secured won worth Rs4.62bn in Andhra Pradesh. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs3447 and a low of Rs3041 and recorded volumes of over 18,00,000 shares on NSE.

Hindustan Zinc slipped 5% to Rs894. The company announced that they have cut lead prices by 1.8% per ton and has kept zinc prices unchanged. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs968 and a low of Rs861 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.

Reliance Communication dropped 3.6% to Rs711. The company announced that they added 1.5mn users in September. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs797 and a low of Rs689 and recorded volumes of over 18,00,000 shares on NSE.

Biocon slipped 1.7% to Rs506. The company announced that they received GDGI marketing approval to sell Abraxane and also would consider Key acquisition opportunities. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs544 and a low of Rs480 and recorded volumes of over 8,00,000 shares on NSE.

REL lost 10% to Rs1591. Reports stated that the company has bagged Rs1,000cr hydro power project. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1843 and a low of Rs1541 and recorded volumes of over 71,00,000 shares on NSE.

Orchid Chemicals lost 4% to Rs223. The company announced its Q2 net profit at Rs632.7mn (up 114%) and sales at Rs2.95bn (up 19%). The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs247 and a low of Rs219 and recorded volumes of over 9,00,000 shares on NSE.

Petronet LNG lost 1.7% to Rs73. The company’s Q2 net profit rose 75% to Rs1.16bn and sales at Rs16.71bn (up 21.4%). The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs82 and a low of Rs70 and recorded volumes of over 99,00,000 shares on NSE.

Gail lost 3.5% to Rs402. The company announced that they would form Joint venture for Vadodara city gas. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs438 and a low of Rs395 and recorded volumes of over 12,00,000 shares on NSE.

Stocks in News:

The DoT has granted GSM technology to three CDMA players, RCom, HFCL and Shyam Telelink in their existing license areas.

ONGC plans to invest $5bn to produce 25 mmscmd of gas from eastern offshore fields by 2013.

In July-Sept 2008, Kingfisher (12.4% v/s 8.8%) and SpiceJet (8.3% v/s 6.9%) gained market share while Jet Airways (22.5% v/s 30.4%) and Air Deccan (16.5 v/s 19.3%) lost market share on yoy basis.

HPCL has teamed up with Lakshmi Mittal to set up a refinery-cum-petrochemicals project in Vishakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh.

Parsvnath to launch Rs8bn residential township project in Indore.

Reliance Industries is in talks with Volvo for a JV to manufacture trucks specifically to be used by Reliance Retail.

Nalco may put up a 0.5mn tons a year plant in South Africa.

A clutch of private equity players are planning to pick stake in GTL Infra for Rs12bn.

Bhushan Steel receives shareholders' approval for raising $300mn.

Thermax has signed a technical know how transfer with Backle-Durr GmbH, Germany for manufacture of dry and wet electrostatic precipitators - air pollution control equipment.

Biocon gets Govt approval to market breast cancer drug, Abraxane.

Rico Auto and Canadian based Magna Powertrain have form 50:50 JV to set up a new facility in Gurgaon.

Tata Motors has entered into a strategic partnership with Jamna Auto as per which the latter would buy one of the Tata Motor's shut units in Jamshedpur to make critical parts for CVs and SUVs.

JSW Energy has achieved financial closure for its proposed 1000 MW thermal power plant at Barmer in Rajasthan.

Bombay Rayon has bought a garment manufacturing unit of Rajasthan Spinning and Weaving Mills for Rs255mn.

Direct Tax collection jumps 40% yoy in April-October 2008 to Rs1220bn.

Government is planning to allow hydro-electric projects to undertake merchant sales of up to 40% of their saleable power output at spot market prices.

Government may extend 30% support from present 20% for metro rail projects.

Existing GSM operators seek PMO’s intervention on spectrum and demanded additional spectrum of 15MHz.

KPMG-FICCI report expects food processing and agri business sectors to grow by 9-12%.

Fund Activity:

FIIs were net sellers of Rs11.3bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Thursday and the local institutions pumped in Rs960.2mn. In the F&O segment, foreign funds were net sellers of Rs27.85bn.

FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs17.78bn on Wednesday. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs221mn on the same day.

Major Bulk Deals:

Bear Stearns has sold Bihar Tubes; HSBC has sold Deep Industries; Merrill Lynch has picked up Infotech Enterprise while Morgan Stanley has sold it; Prudential ICICI MF has bought ION Exchange but UBS has sold the stock; Merrill Lynch has purchased Zee News while Morgan Stanley has sold it.

Upper Circuit:

RIIL, Jai Corp, TCI Industries and IID Forgings.

Lower Circuit:

Swan Mills, Karutari Networks, Marathon Nextgen, Goldstone Tele, Tanla, Shree Precoated and McNally Bharat.