Bias remains positive

The Sensex came very close to its all-time peak last week, but eventually the rally fizzled out and the index ended on a flat note at 15,604, up by 14 points. The index had begun the week on a sour note and dropped to a low of 15,364. A recovery thereafter saw the index rallying to a high of 15,825, up by 461 points from the day’s low — just 44 points shy of its all-time high of 15,869.

Following the recent upmove, the index has now formed a higher base around the 15,300 level. Tuesday’s Fed meet outcome is likely to weigh on the market sentiment and play a major role in determining the future trend.

Bias continues to remain positive and if the Sensex is able to surpass its recent high of 15,869, the index could very well rally up to 16,050 level. Above this, the index may target 16,400-16,500 in the short term.

This week, the index may face resistance around 15,780-15,835-15,890, while in case of a downmove, the index is likely to find support around 15,430-15,370-15,315. A break of 15,300 could see the Sensex testing its crucial support zone of 14,935-14,650. The Nifty moved in a range of 130-odd points last week. From a low of 4,453, the index surged to a high of 4,583, and finally finished with a gain of 9 points at 4,518.

This week, the Nifty may face resistance around 4,565-4,580-4,600, while on the downside, the index is likely to find support around 4,470-4,450-4,435.

The Nifty is likely to find considerable support around 4,450, below which the index may drop to 4,320.

The mid-term (50-day) moving average for the Nifty is currently at 4,415 and the short-term (20-day) moving average is at 4,380. The long-term (200-day) moving average is at 4,121.