Bharti Airtel: Buy

The sharp decline in the broad markets over the past week offers a good opportunity to take exposures to the stock of Bharti Airtel – the market leader in the Indian mobile telephony market. Strong subscriber additions, substantial investments in capex and possible new revenue streams from overseas forays and businesses such as broadband and IPTV, suggest strong earnings growth prospects for the company over the next few years. The stock trades at about 32 times twelve months earnings, after declines linked to broad market weakness and lower-than-expected first quarter results. Investors can accumulate the stock at current levels as well as at any further declines.

Bharti Airtel continues to dominate the mobile telephony space in the country, with 1.9 million subscribers a month, at least half a million ahead of its nearest competitor. Bharti’s average revenue per user (ARPU), at Rs 390, is much higher than the national average of Rs 298, indicating a continued ability to command a premium over other operators. There also appears to be scope for offsetting any decline in ARPUs through value added services. The recent tariff hike effected by the company for SMS and local calls, may also help realisations.

Over $3-billion worth of capex rollout over the next few years, including components like next generation networks (NGN) and 3G-ready networks, will enable Bharti to service a rapidly increasing subscriber base and start 3G services, as and when policy clarity emerges. International calling cards, a thrust area, may also open up revenue streams with relatively higher margins. With the company winning licenses to deliver 2G as well as 3G services in Sri Lanka and committing $200 million towards expansion, Bharti appears well placed to position itself strongly in the Sri Lankan market, which has reasonable untapped potential.

Mobile telephony apart, Bharti’s Broadband and Telephone (landline) division has also been making headway, and garnering an ARPU of Rs 1,120, much higher than the national average. The impending rollout of new services such as IPTV (Internet protocol television), DTH (direct to home) may help revenues and margins. Key risks to the earnings outlook arise from any inordinate delay in release of 2G spectrum. A delay in the 3G policy announcement could mean loss of potential opportunity. Regulatory intervention on tariff increases and heightened competition in national and international long distance services, are risks as well.