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Wednesday, July 04, 2007

Market Close: All time high?what's next ?


For last few sessions, market has followed the same trend of Firm start and then to witnessed volatility. The situation was no different today, as the indices opened strong backed by firm global cues but soon pared off gains after it touched all time high. It seems that investors are taking this high as an opportunity to book profits. However, markets recovered later on some value buying. There were some moments to cheer during the day as some sectors saw renewed buying on news. Cement, Sugar, Auto and Steel counters made the indices end in green.

Cement stocks gained on reports that cement companies have hiked prices of cement across India by Rs 3 - Rs 5 per 50 kg bag effective from today. Sugar became sweet as some recent reports said that the government may announce sops for the sugar sector. Auto saw continued buying interest as the companies hopes that interest rates are headed down. Almost 50- 70% of sales of the auto cos comes through loans by the banks and other institutions. IT stocks were hit the most as the Indian Rupee continued to trade high against the Dollar as it was traded near one month high. Asian markets ended the day on mixed note.

Sensex ended up by 74 points at 14880.24. It is helped up by gains in ACC (1022.55,+9 percent), Guj Ambuja (129.95,+4 percent), TISCO (616.4,+3 percent), Cipla (218.45,+2 percent) and NTPC (155.35,+2 percent). Restricting the gains are ONGC (874.25,-2 percent), SBI (1563.4,-1 percent), Wipro (508.95,-1 percent), TCS (1117.25,-1 percent) and HDFC (1979.65,-1 percent).

Britannia's part owner Group Danone sold off its global Biscuits to Kraft. However the deal does not include Danones's stake in the Indian Company. There are issues yet to be sorted out. We like Britannia and we expect that the company will do well in a scenario where the playing field has been made level with the unorganized sector. The brands are strong, though there is hot competition from ITC. The stock continues to see buoyancy as expectations are that growth will be maintained and margins will be back helped by lower excise. The stock could see more gains we believe as FMCG stocks are suddenly attracting attention. The stock ended the day up by more than 1%.

Tyre sector got a boost today as major stocks rallied. The run might be because of various reasons and also in anticipation of some anti dumping on Chinese tyres. Rubber prices have slipped to Rs 75 / kg which seem to be good for the manufactures. As per some report almost 85000 CV tyres and 1.25 lac radial Car tyres were imported. Of this 70% was from China. China has now discontinued to the 5% export subsidy and also increased the freight by 20%. Apparently the Govt panel has recommended to hike anti dumping duty per truck trye to $135 from $ 99 currently. This news was delivered after market hours which is very much positive for the Indian manufacturers. Please read a detailed note on the above in our Economy and also don?t forget to read the Apollo Tyre note on which we had a call and it delivered in a day.

Technically speaking: Market closed all time high at 14880. It made intraday high of 14907.Though market ended high Decliners at 1445 outnumbered advancers at 1219. Sensex is moving towards our expected target of 14960. Support lies at 14800, 14810.