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Friday, March 30, 2007

STRATEGY INPUTS FOR THE DAY


Marching ahead with less baggage!

It is the dull man who is always sure, and the sure man who is always dull.

As expected, short covering in the F&O segment on the settlement day led to a rally in the cash segment. A steep fall in the rupee against the dollar make bring some smiles to the IT counters. Volatile Asian markets and lack of conviction among the bulls could make the markets dull and choppy. The indices may manage to close in the green as fresh positions are taken.

Volume was up sharply yesterday due to the F&O expiry. The market breadth was positive. The last six reported figure by SEBI on FII inflows has been good. But, the NSE's provisional data for Thursday shows foreign funds being net sellers of Rs1.72bn in the cash segment on a day when the Sensex gained 95 points.

Another concern is the lower than usual rollover in the derivative segment and a high cost of carry. Having said that one should take these short-term indicators with a pinch of salt as they are not quite consistent and reliable. Given the fact that companies will soon come out with their latest quarterly numbers, we expect the market to remain lackluster with intra-day volatility. Watch out for the inflation data at noon as it might unnecessarily swing the mood.

US stocks managed to rebound on Thursday, with blue chips leading the pack at the end of a choppy session. A stronger-than-expected reading on fourth-quarter GDP growth offset a 3% spike in oil prices. The Dow Jones was up 48.39 at 12,348.75, and the broader S&P 500 gained 5.30 to 1,422.53. The Nasdaq Composite ended nearly unchanged, recovering after briefly dipping into negative territory for the year.

America's fourth-quarter GDP grew at a 2.5% annual rate, up from the previous estimate of 2.2% and a reading of 2% in the third quarter. Another encouraging report showed a surprise drop in the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment last week.

US light crude oil for May delivery rose $1.95 to settle at $66.03 a barrel in New York. Prices have been on the rise recently amid worries about the conflict with Iran, the world's No. 4 exporter. The front-month contract was trading 61 cents higher at $66.64 a barrel in extended trading in Asia.

COMEX gold for April delivery fell $5.30 to settle at $667.60 an ounce. Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the 10-year note to about 4.64% from 4.61% on Wednesday. In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and rose versus the yen.

European shares rose on Thursday. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index rose 1.1% to 374.29. The UK's FTSE 100 added 0.91% to 6,324.20, Germany's DAX Xetra 30 moved 1.15% higher to 6,895.27 and France's CAC-40 gained 1.42% to 5,131.53.

Stocks in Latin American finished higher, aided by a jump in international oil prices. Brazil's benchmark Ibovespa stocks index rose 871 points, or 2%, to 45,355.13. Mexican stocks rose on stronger than expected US fourth-quarter economic growth. The market's IPC index closed up 606 points, or 2.1%, at 28,704.24, breaking a three-session losing streak.

Asian markets are mixed this morning. The Nikkei in Tokyo was up 27 points at 17,291 while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 93 points to 19,728. The Straits Times in Singapore declined 7 points to 3221 and the Kospi in Seoul was almost unchanged at 1449.

HOW MARKET FARED

Bulls roll over smoothly

The markets managed to make a come back after falling for three consecutive trading sessions as short covering towards the fag end lifted the key indices to close in green terrain. The FMCG index was the major gainer and gained 2.08%, others like Capital Good, Pharma and Technology followed suit. HLL, ITC and Suzlon were at the limelight. Finally, the 30-share benchmark Sensex advanced 95 points to close at 12979. NSE Nifty rose 37 points to close at 3798.

Ranbaxy gained by 1% to Rs341 after the company declared that they would pay Rs6 per share as mid-year dividend. The scrip has touched an intra-day high of Rs343 and a low of Rs336 and has recorded volumes of over 6,00,000 shares on NSE.

ONGC continued to trade firm as crude oil prices still hovers above $64 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have been on the rise amid worries about the conflict with Iran, the No. 4 oil exporter. The scrip gained by 1% to Rs874 touching an intra-day high of Rs881 and a low of Rs858 and recorded volumes of over 18,00,000 shares on NSE.

Man Industries was the star of the day although profit booking dragged it lower, however the scrip rallied by over 8% to Rs199 after the company secured Rs10bn order for Pipes. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs220 and a low of Rs192 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.

FMCG stocks ended with smart gains. FMCG major HLL advanced over 3.5% to Rs205, ITC surged 2.5% to Rs146, Marico spurred 4.7% to Rs61, and McDowell was up 1.6% to Rs821.

Sugar stocks run was bought to an end in mid afternoon after following reports that government has stopped fresh sugar export permits under open license. Balrampur Chini dropped 2.9% to Rs64, Renuka Sugar declined 6% to Rs428, Dhampur Sugar slipped 1% to Rs71 and Bajaj Hindusthan edged lower 0.7% to Rs181. However, Sakhti Sugar rallied by over 12% to Rs88.

Pharma stocks were in the pink of health. Dr Reddy’s Lab advanced by 2.1% to Rs706, Ranbaxy was up by 1.8% to Rs345, Cipla gained by 1% to Rs236 and Sun Pharma added 1.5% to Rs1014.

Telecom stocks were a mixed bag. VSNL advanced 1.7% to Rs402 and Bharti Airtel recovered all its intra-day losses, the scrip gained 0.8% to Rs763. However, MTNL declined 1.7% to Rs146 and Reliance Communication edged lower by 0.3% to Rs418.

Select Auto stocks were in the reverse gear. Bajaj Auto declined 1.9% to Rs2421, TVS Motors declined over 3% to Rs59 and Tata Motors was down 0.5% to Rs716. However, Hero Honda advanced 2.8% to Rs676 and Maruti added 2% to Rs812