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Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Sharekhan Investor's Eye dated March 12, 2007


PULSE TRACK

  • January 2007 IIP up 10.9%


STOCK UPDATE

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,341
Current market price: Rs1,014

De-merger of the innovative R&D division
Sun Pharmaceutical Industry is finally preparing to de-merge its innovative research division, and the company is holding a management presentation on March 15, 2007 to share and discuss the information about the new chemical entity (NCE) and novel drug delivery system (NDDS) research projects. Considering the innovative research and development (R&D) as low predictable business, longer time frame for commercialisation and significantly higher spending vis-à-vis the generics R&D, the company had proposed to spin-off its innovative R&D division covering NCEs and NDDSs into a separate company. As per the earlier proposal, the de-merger would be effective from April 01, 2006.


SECTOR UPDATE

Telecom

Taking a breather
After months of exhilarating growth, the cellular service industry took a slight breather in February, with the overall subscriber base growing by only 3.9% as against a growth of over 5% in some of the previous months. The subscriber addition during the month was lower partly owing to a lesser number of days in February; higher inflation could also have had an impact on the growth though. The overall numbers were particularly affected by the lower additions reported by Reliance Communications in the CDMA space partly due to the stringent user verification norms implemented recently by the Department of Telecommunications. Moreover, the fact that Reliance Communications is planning to gradually shift away from the CDMA space could have also had an impact.


MUTUAL GAINS

Sharekhan's top equity fund picks

We have identified the best equity-oriented schemes available in the market today based on the following 3 parameters: the past performance as indicated by the returns, the Sharpe ratio and Fama (net selectivity).

The past performance is measured by the returns generated by the scheme. Sharpe indicates risk-adjusted returns, giving the returns earned in excess of the risk-free rate for each unit of the risk taken. The Sharpe ratio is also indicative of the consistency of the returns as it takes into account the volatility in the returns as measured by the standard deviation.

FAMA measures the returns generated through selectivity, ie the returns generated because of the fund manager's ability to pick the right stocks. A higher value of net selectivity is always preferred as it reflects the stock picking ability of the fund manager.

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