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Wednesday, February 07, 2007

A new high lead by select heavy weights !


Market surpassed the previous higher levels to close at an all time high yet again amid mixed Global cues. Starting apprehensively, buying was witnessed through out the trading session. Bajaj was the star of the day on rumours of stock split. Really a stock split is of no significance and value should not increase by 8% but thats a BULL market for you. The rally was supported by Banking, Pharma and FMCG stocks while Automobile, Power, and cement stocks traded mixed.

Driven by robust performance in manufacturing and financial services, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected at 9.2% during FY07, against 9% in the previous year. This is along expected lines and kind of discounted. The issue now is that interest rates are rising and whether the GDP growth can continue with the momentum that it has been growing in the current environment.

Sensex closed up 165 points at 14643 helped by gains in Bajaj Auto (3080.3,+9 percent), Hindalco (181.9,+4 percent), Infosys (2358.75,+4 percent), Grasim (2874.6001,+3 percent) and ICICI Bk (982.35,+3 percent). Restricting the gains were Tata Motors (902.05,-2 percent), ONGC (891.65,-2 percent), Guj Ambuja (141.2,-1 percent), HLL (207.5,-1 percent) and RCVL (485.75,-1 percent)

FIIs were buyers of Rs.656 cr yesterday in cash. FII interest seems to have reignited. Yesterdays data would also include about Rs 150 cr of TCS shares sold by Tatas. FII positive numbers will keep the momentum going up with the India Conference of many FII brokers bringing in interest

Bajaj stole the show today. The market talked about stock split in Bajaj Auto. The stock gained substantially on back of this. We like the company but near term competitive pressures are expected. However we believe that the interest was more to do from the fact that Uttaranchal facilities may be near completion and that would add to the margins. The news was positive with Sri Lankan courts decision in favor of Bajaj and against their Sri Lankan importer Ranatunga Motors against the sale of Ranamoto Gulsar. Ranamoto Gulsar is an Chinese version of Bajaj's Pulsar model. Company has started registering its name, design and Brands in the countries where it intends to sell and also deputed a team to track such cases in other export markets to avoid such incidents in future in its other export markets. Bajaj Auto sells 5,000-6,000 bikes per month in Sri Lanka out of which 1,000 are Pulsar 180 model. Bajaj is still a strong contender as an investment option in the two wheeler segment with 34% market share in the two wheeler industry and a strong hold in the three wheeler segment with a market share of 78%. We are positive on this one.

InsdusInd Bank rallied on back of news that Hindujas intends to sell 20 per cent stake to a MNC bank..at Rs 80 per share. It was also said that this deal mandated by RBI. We believe that, the price cannot be mandated. and by the RBI, certainly not. This pricing is probably an expectation of the Hinduja group. IndusInd bank has strengths in credit disbursal but its tough to source funds and that is key for success. The stock closed up 6%.

Technically Speaking: There were 1320 advances against 1337 declines still market ended high as rally was led by selected stocks. Market traded in the range of 14,478 and 14,493. Resistance lies around 14680 levels while support is around 14520 levels. Volume was good at Rs 4,641 cr. 14,720 level will be the next level to be watched out. Key support is now at 14320.