MARKET OUTLOOK
Setting sights on 16000
We expect the markets to reach 15500-16000 within the next twelve months. This appears a reasonable target given our expectation of a robust growth in corporate earnings, a positive Union Budget and benign global macro factors especially a possible rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in mid-CY2007. With the global growth rate likely to moderate, inflationary pressures in the USA should ease in three to four months. India would continue to grow at a robust rate though and thus attract good foreign funds in line with the other emerging markets. This would lead to strong liquidity conditions and money supply will continue to grow at 19-20%. In this issue of Market Outlook, we have analysed the various positives and risks associated with our equity markets in the coming year. Our preferred sectors are those that are driven by domestic consumer demand and capital spending, and therefore are relatively insulated from a US slowdown. Thus sectors like automobiles, banking, capital goods and cement continue to remain our preferred bets
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