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Thursday, January 18, 2007

Close: Results cheered as markets make another high !


Market started firm on the back of Japan keeping interest rates steady. It was a big results day and the start was steady with no negative global cues. Mid caps also saw buying along with index heavyweights. The momentum continued as the day progressed and market reached an all time high of 14300. A sharp selloff from those levels had markets looking for excuses but really there were none. Markets finally closed up for the day still leaving investors confused on the reason for the sharp fall. The rally was also supported by Global Indices as Asian Indices ended their day in Green, while European ones were trading in Green.

Cement Stocks have shown superb numbers. Ultra tech Net profit stood at Rs. 212 cr against Rs. 23.8 cr in the same quarter last year. Shree cement Ltd had also had a fantastic set of numbers with the top line up 150% at Rs. 363 cr against Rs. 144 cr in the previous year. Net profits at 104 cr against 28 cr same quarter last year was really good. JK Lakshmi Cement also did not disappoint as its top line grew by 50% Net Profits at Rs 55 cr vs Rs 11.3 Cr left little to be desired. However all cement stocks have been expected to deliver and the stocks have come off post the numbers. So its really a case of meeting expectations. Talks of an oil find by ONGC had the stock flaring up.. though the stock closed off its highs on profit taking.

Sensex closed up by 86 points at 14217. helped up by gains in HDFC (1596.45,+3 percent), ONGC (916.85,+2 percent), L & T (1586.1,+2 percent), ITC (171.95,+2 percent) and HLL (223.95,+1 percent). Restricting the gains are TISCO (475.55,-2 percent), ICICI Bk (971.8,-1 percent), RCVL (436.35,-1 percent), Rel Energy (528.15,-1 percent) and Tata Motors (952.75,-1 percent).

One of the big reasons for the rally was the fact that Japan has kept rates steady as an increase would have disturbed the applecart. The interest rate scenario will be given a relook Feb. The FII flow is affected by that for sure. FII numbers came in a marginal 91 crore positive for Wednesday. The markets have been rallying with not much FII activity and thats some cause for concern.
Siemens has posted a two-fold increase in net profit after tax at Rs 98.07 crore for the quarter ended December 31, from Rs 49.01 crore in the year-ago period. The total income (net of excise) of the company for the first quarter nearly doubled to Rs 1648.24 crore, as against Rs 861 crore recorded in the corresponding period in 2005. Fantastic numbers. The company had announced intention of selling off of the Communication Enterprise Network business (a part of the Information & Communications segment) and also the Siemens Public Communication Networks Ltd (SPCNL), another potential high growth 100% subsidiary. This subsidiary has a 100% export oriented R&D unit, which contributes to the development work for network management solutions for Siemens' worldwide product lines. With the businesses being divested, and Valuations at around PE of 40 for FY07 the stock came under pressure.

Exide Industries net profit at Rs 35 crore against Rs 21 crore on for the quarter was ok but really good in the face of increased lead prices. The company's net sales during the third quarter was up 34% at Rs 458.58 crore from Rs 342 crore as compared to the corresponding quarter previous year. The company announced that it has increased prices by about 5% this month and thats a positive. The stock has had a sharp run up and the near term will continue to face pressure from high lead prices. But performance indicates that it has been able to take it well.

Reliance announced bumper profits for the quarter after markets and that should really be the high point for tomorrow. Net Profit at Rs 2799 cr vs Rs 1776 cr far exceeded the most optimistic expectations. The unbelievable numbers from Reliance were topped up by Gross refining margins which came in at $11.7 / barrel. The through put was higher and exports were up over Rs 16000 cr from Rs 6000 cr. This in an appreciating rupee environment which would have been negative. Also the fact that crude hit the highest levels during the quarter. Its amazing how this company makes money.

Technically Speaking: Sensex rallied between the channels of 14327 - 14419 level. However, the breadth had been marginally in the favor of Advances as there were 1386 advances against 1293 Declines. Volumes were good at 5053 cr. Any upside will face resistance at 14,410 levels.