Thai currency control measures to have limited impact

The market plunged in a broad based decline in Asian markets after Thai central bank's currency controls heightened concern about emerging markets but market men see limited impact of the development for the domestic bourses.

The Thai situation is very localized and all the Asian markets would recover to levels that their fundamentals command individually and this shouldn’t take a long time, said Shaheena Mukadamm, head of research, IDBI Capital Market.

The Thai development came at a time when the market sentiment was cautious after the provisional data showed substantial FII sales of Rs 369 crore on Monday (18 December), the day when Sensex had risen 116 points in volatile trade.

The current fall, in fact, offers a buying opportunity for medium term and long term investors, Mukadamm reckons. Sensex plunged 349 points or 2.5% today to settle at 13,382.01. Thailand’s central bank said international investors will have to pay a 10% penalty on funds withdrawn out of the country within a year.

The near term trigger for domestic bourses is Q3 December 2006 results. Market men expect December 2006 quarter to be another strong quarter in terms of earnings growth. The Q3 results would start trickling in from about 12 January 2007.

But volatility may remain high in the next few days ahead of expiry of December 2006 derivatives contracts next Thursday (28 January). At the beginning of today’s trading session, the market wide open interest in derivatives was about Rs 52500 crore.

FII activity is likely to be muted till the end of this month, as foreign fund managers will be on vacation for Christmas and New Year.

Technical analysts feel that the Nifty has a strong support at 3,700 and Sensex at 12,800-12,900.