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Monday, December 11, 2006

STRATEGY INPUTS FOR THE DAY


Bullfight between Cairn and Able

I've found that when the market's going down and you buy funds wisely, at some point in the future you will be happy. You won't get there by reading 'Now is the time to buy.'- Peter Lynch

While most market men are talking of liquidity being sucked out for the Cairn IPO which opens today, the global cues could be able to give the bulls an upper hand at least at start. Going ahead its going to be a swing based on daily and sometimes hourly news development. Don't expect any clear trend in the coming days as markets try to digest and hype all the news that comes its way.

US stocks rose on Friday after the world's largest economy added more jobs than expected. Most Asian markets are up this morning, led by export-oriented stocks like Toyota and Hyundai, as the yen and the won weakened against the dollar.

The negative bit of development is the recent selling by FIIs. They pulled out Rs2.05bn from the cash segment on Friday. In the F&O segment, they were net sellers to the tune of Rs12.55bn. On Thursday, foreign funds were net buyers of Rs101mn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs41.9mn on the same day. The slowdown in overseas money is likely to cause some worry for the bulls notwithstanding the strong long-term fundamentals.

The market struggled to hold up last week after the Sensex crossed 14,000. Even that achievement is under a cloud with clear indications of market manipulation. We have been saying for quite a while but have no choice to repeat the same caveat. It is overtime to be cautious.

Now, we come to the most interesting part. The news. Predictably, Tata Steel has raised the offer for Corus. It has announced a revised bid of 500 pence per share for the Anglo-Dutch steel major. As if that is not enough. The Tata Group is reportedly eyeing a stake in the low-cost carrier SpiceJet. But, Zee will take a knock as it has lost the lucrative ICC cricket rights bid to arch rivals ESPN-Star combine.

ICICI Bank's Board has approved the proposal to merge the unlisted Sangli Bank with itself. However, the stock may come under some pressure as the RBI has hiked CRR by 50 basis points. Shares like L&T, BHEL and Hindustan Construction could gain as the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal is through in the Congress. President Bush is scheduled to sign on the dotted line today. A couple of other big events to watch out for will be tomorrow's Fed meeting and the OPEC meet on Dec. 14.

Three IPOs are opening today with Cairn India's mega issue being the main highlight. The other two are Pyramid Saimira and Tanla Solutions. Shares of Blue Bird will get listed on the bourses today.

Major Bulk Deals:
Merrill Lynch has bought Classic Diamonds; Franklin Templeton MF and HSBC have picked up Infotech Enterprise but Merrill Lynch has sold the stock; Morgan Stanley has sold MphasiS BFL.

Insider Trades:
Aptech Limited: Pramod Khera, Managing Director of the company has sold 17936 equity shares of Aptech Limited on 06-DEC-2006 in open market.
Mphasis Limited: Jaithirth Rao, Chairman has sold 136972 equity shares of Mphasis Limited on 05th Dec 2006.

Market Volumes:
The turnover on NSE was up 1% to Rs75.56bn. The BSE Oil & Gas index was the major loser and lost 2.21%. BSE Metal index (down 1.74%), BSE Auto index (down 1.58%), BSE FMCG index (down 1.44%) and BSE Capital Goods (down 1.27%) were among the other major losers.

Volume Toppers:
Tele Data Informatics, IFCI, Ashok Leyland, Polaris, NTPC, IDBI, SAIL, IndusInd Bank, R Com, Zee, Mphasis BFL, Gujarat Ambuja Cements, IVRCL Infra, Lanco Infratech, DCB, Yes Bank, ITC, Tata Steel and JP Associates.

Delivery Delight:
Aurobindo Pharma, Cummins India, Dr Reddys Laboratories, Era Constructions, Geometric Software, Gujarat Ambuja Cements, I-Flex Solutions, IndusInd Bank, Mphasis BFL, NTPC, Patel Engineering, Rajesh Exports, Ranbaxy, Rolta, Sonata Software, SBI and Yes Bank.

Brokers Recommendations:
Panacea Biotech - Buy from Kotak
Ceat - Buy Edelweiss

Long Term Investment:
ICICI Bank

Major News Headlines:
EID Parry in pact for sugar venture with Cargill Asia Pacific
Oracle announces revised open offer of Rs2,100 per share for i-flex
Govt considering taking over RBI stake in SBI
Mahindra unit sells cable accessories business
Parsvnath wins Delhi land bid for Rs2.3bn
GAIL acquires stake in Oil & Gas block in Myanmar