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Friday, November 24, 2006

Indiainfoline - Daily Market Strategy


Thanksgiving over...is it time for Black Friday?

Eat before shopping. If you go to the store hungry, you are likely to make unnecessary purchases.

The bears which slowly clawed back after some hibernation will hope the bulls have exhausted their shopping list. It's Black Friday on Wall Street (later in the day). And mind you Black Friday here does not mean a crash in the markets. The day after Thanksgiving is called "Black Friday." This is because retailers are said to finally move out of the red (representing losses) and into the black (indicating profits) as holiday shopping season commences ahead of Christmas. It's a day when the Wal-Marts and the rest of the retailers offer the best discount to lure larger customers.

For the bulls on Dalal Street, there are few stocks available at a discount or which are attractively valued. Most are trading at a premium. But then, if you have the money and are hungry, you may just end up buying things, even if it is expensive. Lightening of positions ahead of the F&O expiry next week could see the indices slipping into the red. A lot of outstanding positions have been built in the derivative segment. So, the near-term trend will hinge on the nature of the rollover. The market will remain volatile till then. Any bout of liquidity flow coupled with some short sellers caught in the 'wrong' counters could bring the bulls back to their feet.

The Wall Street was shut yesterday due to the Thanksgiving holiday. US shares had finished slightly higher on Wednesday. Crude oil futures were quoting nearly unchanged at $59.25 a barrel in extended trading in Asia.

Across the Atlantic, European markets closed lower. The French CAC-40 dipped 0.51% to 5,424.86. London's FTSE 100 fell 0.33% to 6,140.00. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index slipped 0.73% to 355.07, and the German DAX Xetra 30 finished flat at 6,476.12.

Asian markets were broadly lower in Friday's morning trade.

Japanese stocks fell, led by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial after Japan's government cut its forecast of the economy for the first time in almost two years. Honda and Sony dropped after the yen rose against the dollar to the highest in more than two months.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 219 points to 15,694 while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong was down 3 points to 19,261. The Kospi in Seoul shed 3 points to 1415.

Elsewhere in Asia, Australia's S&P ASX/200 was down 0.3% and Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.5%.

Among the emerging markets, the Bovespa in Brazil fell 0.4% to 42,069 while the IPC Index in Mexico added 0.2% to 24,730 and the RTS index in Russia gained 0.6% to 1712.

FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs2.95bn (provisional) in the cash segment yesterday. In the F&O segment, they were net sellers of Rs1.65bn. Mutual funds pumped in Rs1.84bn on Wednesday.

TCS could gain after Microsoft acquired a 10% stake in its China JV. There are also reports that it might win a big order from China.

Watch out for Maxwell Industries, the makers of the famous VIP brand of men's undergarments. A financial daily reports that Kishore Biyani's Future Group is in talks with the promoters to pick up a 26% stake in the company.

Insider Trades:
Mcleod Russel India Limited: Emerging Markets Growth Fund, Inc has purchased from open market 174305 equity shares of Mcleod Russel India Limited on 20th November 2006.

Mphasis BFL Limited: Anant R. Koppar, President has sold in open market 20000 equity shares of Mphasis BFL Limited on 16th November 2006.

Market Volumes:
The turnover on NSE was down by 15% to Rs88.84bn. BSE FMCG index was the major loser and lost 0.90%. BSE Technology index (down 0.57%) and BSE Oil & gas index (down 0.50%) were the other major losers. However BSE Capital Good index gained 1.17%.

Volume Toppers:
SAIL, DCB, India Cement, IVRCL Infrastructure, IDFC, Siemens, Unitech, ITC, Zee Telefilms, R Com, MTNL, Indiabulls, Mphasis BFL, Action Construction, Hindalco, Mahindra Gesco and GMR Infrastructure.

Delivery Delight:
ABB, Aftek Infosys, Bajaj Hindustan, Bank of Baroda, BHEL, BPCL, Colgate, Financial Technologies, I-Flex, India Cements, IVRCL Infrastructures, L&T, MTNL, NTPC, Suzlon Energy, Tata Power, Unitech and United Phosphorous.

Brokers Recommendation:
NTPC – Outperform from CLSA

Long Term Investment:
BHEL

Major News Headlines:

OBC signs MoU with IL & FS to provide trading facilities
Siemens Q4 net at Rs1.37bn (up 31%), revenue at Rs15.63bn (up 56%)/
Siemens to pay Rs3.8 per share dividend
Siemens to sell stake in telecom infrastructure unit to Nokia JV
Hindustan Zinc to spend Rs7.7bn to expand its Zinc and Power generation capacity
Petron Engineering bags Rs99.57mn order from Indian Oil
Microsoft buys 10% stake in TCS, China – Reports
BPCL subsidiary signs contract with Timor sea production sharing
Subex Azure wins contract from Middle-East Mobile Operator
Tantia Construction receives construction project from Bihar
Rajesh Exports launches 6 new showrooms