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Thursday, November 23, 2006

Be prepared for an opportunity


It is better to be prepared for an opportunity and not have one than to have an opportunity and not be prepared.

If we said be prepared for a correction, it would sure disappoint many. So call it opportunity for now. India's men in blue may have failed to fire in South Africa last night. But the bulls have been hitting master strokes in all directions sending the bears beyond imaginable boundary lines. The final Sensex score ended above 13,700 while the Nifty is closing in on 4,000. If the current momentum continues unabated, the Nifty may cross the landmark before the weekend break. Strong inflows from FIIs is powering the key indices higher despite repeated talk of overstretched valuations and a possible correction. The trend may continue for a few days if foreign capital inflows remain as robust as they are at present. However, some softening in the main indexes is not ruled out owing to profit booking. The F&O side of the market also looks overheated with the open interest crossing Rs550bn. Next week, we have the monthly expiry of derivative contracts. The market is bound to be volatile. The large caps are running faster than their small- and mid-cap peers. The broader market is still to catch up with their previous all-time high. Buying fresh at this juncture is fraught with a lot of risk though the long-term outlook remains bullish. Investors should keep booking small profits every time the market goes up sharply. Today, we see the market opening higher again, on the back of a positive trend in the Asian markets and overnight gains on Wall Street. Having said that we would still advise investors to remain on guard for any unexpected correction.

Siemens, Thomas Cook and BPL will announce their results for the July to September quarter.

Kinetic Motor and Kinetic Engineering could be in action due to a business restructuring.

FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs5.59bn in the cash segment yesterday on a provisional basis. In the F&O segment, they pumped in Rs6.88bn. On Tuesday, foreign funds pumped in Rs6.42bn in the cash segment. With this, their net investment in this month stands at $1.49bn after pouring in over $1bn in the previous three months. Mutual Funds were net sellers to the tune of Rs788.1mn on Tuesday.

In the US market, the Nasdaq surged to its highest level in nearly six years, after Dell's upbeat earnings helped spark a rally in technology shares. The positive momentum came as crude oil dropped.

But the blue-chip benchmarks languished before the Thanksgiving Day. Shares of GM fell on news that Billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian, who failed to push GM into an alliance with Carlos Ghosn, cut his stake in the world's largest automaker by 25%.

With trading volumes thin ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5 points to 12,326. It earlier reached an all-time intraday high of 12,361. The S&P 500 rose 3 points to close at 1,406 and the Nasdaq advanced 11 points to 2,465.

All financial markets in the US are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and close early on Friday, in what is expected to be a quiet session.

Weekly jobless claims rose by a greater-than-expected 12,000 last week to 321,000. However, the report still showed a healthy labor market. The November consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan was revised downward to 92.1 from an initial read of 92.3. Economists had forecast that it would rise to 93.

US light crude oil for January delivery slipped 93 cents to settle at $59.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, following the release of the weekly oil inventories report. The front-month contract was quoting 8 cents down at $59.32 a barrel in extended trading in Asia.

Treasury bond prices inched higher, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 4.56% from 4.57% late on Tuesday. COMEX gold rose 30 cents to settle at $629 an ounce.

Among the Indian ADRs, Infy rose 1.3%, Wipro surged by over 5%, Satyam climbed 4.7%, Tata Motors rose 1.15%, Dr. Reddy's advanced 2.1%, HDFC Bank added 1.7% and MTNL put on 3.3%.

European stock markets closed mixed. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600, which reached a six-year high early in the session, ended 0.1% lower at 359.55.

The German DAX 30 rose 0.2% at 6,476.13 while the French CAC 40 slipped 0.1% at 5,452.49. The UK's FTSE 100 lost 0.7% at 6,160.30.

In the emerging markets, the Bovespa in Brazil was up 0.8% at 41,912 while the IPC Index in Mexico added 0.4% to 24,674 and the RTS index in Russia put on 0.2% to 1703.

Asian stocks rose for a third day on Thursday, led by Australian financial companies, after Allco Finance Group said it may join Macquarie Bank and Texas Pacific Group to bid for Qantas Airways.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific excluding Japan Index gained 0.4% to 378.78 at 10:40 a.m. in Hong Kong. Markets in Japan are closed for a holiday today. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong is up 66 points to 19,316.

Singapore's Straits Times Index was set to close at a record for a second day. Stock indices rose in Asia, except in South Korea and the Philippines.

Major Bulk Deals:
Citigroup has bought Champagne Indage, Donear Industries, SpiceJet and Nitco Tiles; Bear Stearns has picked up Country Club; Merrill Lynch has purchased Donear Industries, Lloyd Electric and IFCI; Fidelity has bought Info Edge while ICICI Venture has sold it; ABN AMRO has sold Jain Irrigation; BNP Paribas AMC has picked up Milkfood; Fidelity has purchased NIIT while Deutsche Securities has sold it; Sundaram MF has bought Prithvi Info; Reliance Capital has picked up Rico Auto; Templeton MF has purchased Simplex Infra; Franklin Templeton MF has bought TRF while ACC has sold it; CLSA has picked up ICICI Bank while Crown Capital has sold it.

Market Volume:
The turnover on NSE was up by 15% to Rs104.63bn compared with yesterday’s trading session. Increase in the turnover was largely on account of huge block deal in ICICI Bank. BSE Capital Good index was the major gainer and gained 2.4%. BSE Auto index (up 1.15%), BSE Technology index (up 1.08%), BSE Pharma index (up 0.84%) and BSE PSU index (up 0.80%) were the other major gainers. However, BSE FMCG index lost 1.10%.

Volume Toppers:
IFCI, DCB, SAIL, Hindustan motors, Deccan Aviation, Satyam Computer, R Com, IVRCL Infrastructure, JP Associates, Zee Telefilms, Ashok Leyland, Bombay Dyeing, HLL, Unitech, Mahindra Gesco, Bank of India and NTPC.

Delivery Delight:
Amtek Auto, BEML, Bharti Airtel, Bombay Dyeing, BRFL, CESC, Crompton Greaves, Cummins India, D S Kulkarni, Dr Reddys Labs, Everest Kanto Cylinder, EXIDE Industries, Gujarat Ambuja Cements, Hindustan Zinc, Indian Hotels, Jaiprakash Associates, Jet Airways, Maharashtra Seamless, NDTV, Punj Lloyd, R Com, Siemens, Tata Motors, Wipro and Tata Power.

Brokers Recommendations:
Goetze India – Buy from Man Financial
Concor – Buy from Kotak

Long Term Investment:
Bharti Airtel

Major News Headlines:

Oracle defers open offer for i-flex by almost a month
Tata Steel & Tata Power agree to set up Captive Power plants
Siemens gets contract worth Rs40bn from Qatar
Engineers India bids jointly with Punj Lloyd for $1.6bn Libyan Refinery project
RIL shuts down Paraxylene unit for maintenance
Megasoft signs $1mn deal with Teletalk Bangladesh