UBS upgrade of Indian Stocks

UBS upgraded Indian stocks to “overweight” citing attractive valuations compared with growth markets in Southeast Asia and an improving trade balance that could help improve domestic liquidity conditions. Although the investment bank warned the country still faces a number of challenges, including politics and potential problems in the balance of payments, it recommended investors continue to bet on India.

UBS - Sensex - target 22,600 in 2008

Foreign brokerage UBS has raised its end-2008 target for the BSE Sensex from 19,000 to 22,600 saying economic growth, which is insulated from the global slowdown, will help companies report strong numbers.

In its India - Outlook 2008 report released here today, UBS said it has factored in higher valuations in an environment it believes will be characterised by both sustainable lower cost of capital and lower domestic political risk.

Putting aside investor concerns on excessive valuations due to the strong performance of the Indian markets in 2007, Manishi Raychaudhury of UBS's India Equity Research team said: "While a global economic slowdown and credit market dislocation could adversely affect Asian markets, the domestically-driven Indian market is relatively insulated."

The Sensex has surged nearly 42% from 13,942.2 to 19,795.87 today during this calendar year making several market watchers advice caution.
Says Raamdeo Agrawal, managing director, Motilal Oswal Securities: "There is all-round optimism across sectors, but this is built into the stock prices. Finding value at current prices is a difficult task."

Raychaudhuri sees a continuation of a strong investment cycle in infrastructure and industrial capex, the peaking of banks' lending and deposit rates - although he concedes that the central bank may not signal a peak in the cycle in the near term, and continued positive surprises in earnings and stable earnings growth as the key themes driving the market in 2008.

"Despite a mean reversion in earnings growth to between 20-22%, from between 30-35% in the last three years, price/earnings ratios of around 20 times are likely to be supported by earnings surprises from domestically-driven and interest rate-sensitive sectors as well as by a continuation of benign liquidity in the stock market," he added.

The UBS report noted that the market movement in 2007 has been narrow - driven by a small number of large stocks causing the valuation of frontline stocks in several sectors to appear steep. "We expect investors to rotate into less expensive sectors such as autos and metals as well as into cheaper stocks in those sectors that have outperformed," said Raychaudhuri.

On the downside, the report warns of the potential for an unexpected rise in inflation (possibly from global prices rising to a level that forces an upward adjustment in the cost of fuel domestically), and growth deceleration. In addition, increasing differences of opinion between the United Progressive Alliance and the Left parties has the potential to increase political uncertainty domestically and lead to an early general election though such concerns have receded recently.

UBS - Idea Cellular

UBS on Idea Cellular,

Pure-play wireless operator

Our bullish view on Idea Cellular is based on its pure-play wireless business that has the potential to perform significantly better than the past, strong brand and a solid management team led by Mr. Sanjiv Aga and Mr. Anil Jhala that is focused on execution. Industry participants view Idea as the operator that has made significant strides in execution, that bodes well for shareholder value creation.

Idea has under achieved in the past = Significant upside potential The company has been historically marred by shareholder issues - three different shareholders in AT&T, Tatas and the Birlas each with different and conflicting objectives. With the Birla firmly in control of the company, we expect the focus and execution to improve significantly.

1Q08 results preview
Idea will announce 1Q08 results on July 24, 2007. We forecast revenues of Rs14.6b (growth of 9% qoq), EBITDA of Rs5.0b (growth of 6% qoq), and net income of Rs1.3b (decline of 31% qoq).

Valuation: Reiterate Buy with Rs.175 price target We maintain our estimates and Buy rating on Idea. We have revised our target price to Rs.175 (from Rs150) as we roll forward our DCF valuation to September 2008 assuming WACC of 10.8% and terminal EV/EBITDA of 6.5x. We rate Idea as one of our top picks in Asian telcos space.

Bull’s Eye

Reliance Industries
Research: UBS Investment (June 14, ’07)
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 1,680 (Face Value Rs 10)

Based on an improved outlook for gas price realisation from KG D6 gas, UBS Investment has raised the FY09 EPS estimate by 3.6% from Rs 96.4 to Rs 99.8, while FY08 estimate remains unchanged. Media reports indicate that Reliance Industries (RIL) has received bids in the region of $4.3-4.7/mmbtu (excluding transportation charges, marketing margins and sales tax) for 25 mmscmd of gas. The contracts are likely to be for three years. UBS is upgrading its estimate for average KG D6 gas realisation from $3.55/mmbtu to $4.2/mmbtu. Recent disclosures by RIL’s partner, Hardy Oil (HOGP), indicate additional upside in new blocks D3, D9 and GS-01. HOGP has estimated gross prospective resources of 33.6 tcf of gas in D9 and 4.2 tcf of gas in D3. RIL has 90% interest in these blocks.

Dabur
Research: Macquarie (June 13, ’07)
Rating: Outperform
CMP: Rs 101 (Face Value Rs 1)

Dabur’s competitive advantage lies in its niche position as the premium player in ‘herbal’ personal care products. The company owns some of India’s most trusted brands in hair care, oral care and health supplements on an Ayurvedic platform. These factors support Dabur’s margins due to sustainable pricing power. The trend of margin expansion is unlikely to reverse. The strength of Dabur’s core business and brands, combined with the positive impact of its recent forays on the bottomline, should protect against any margin erosion due to investment in new businesses such as retail. Macquarie expects Dabur to remain among the fastest-growing FMCG players in India and report a three-year earnings CAGR of 18%. The company’s core business strength has enabled it to consistently deliver 20-50% earnings growth over the past five years. Importantly, earnings have outpaced revenues in each of these years. Dabur trades at a P/E ratio of 17x FY08E earnings, which is at a ~20% discount to its domestic consumer sector peers.

Gujarat State Petronet
Research: Citigroup (June 13, ’07)
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 55 (Face Value Rs 10)

Citigroup has raised the target price of Gujarat State Petronet as higher volumes of gas are likely to flow from Reliance Industries through GSPL’s network, as indicated by the management of both companies. The gas volumes transported through GSPL’s pipeline network are likely to increase ~2.5-fold to 38 mmscmd by FY12E. Recent speculation on the adverse impact of regulatory intervention in setting pipeline tariffs is premature and overdone. Based on the analysis, introducing regulated tariffs on the cost of service methodology may result in a net positive impact of 7-11% to Citigroup’s steady state (FY10-12E) earnings estimates. GSPL is Citigroup’s top pick in the domestic gas utilities space. A pure play gas transmission company, GSPL is highly levered to increasing consumption of gas in Gujarat, without being exposed to the vagaries of gas pricing. The stock trades at 8.8x FY09E P/CEPS, marginally higher than other gas utilities, but this is justified by its 30% EPS CAGR over FY07-10E (significantly higher than peers) and highest leverage to KG gas

Jaiprakash Associates
Research: CLSA (June 14, ’07)
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 690 (Face Value Rs 10)

Jaiprakash is well-positioned for growth in the construction, cement, hydropower and real estate sectors. Cement capacity is set to triple by FY10 and construction revenue should improve by H2 FY08 as the Taj Expressway project takes off. Jaiprakash will triple its cement capacity to 21.7 million tonnes by FY10CL. Its average cost of capacity expansion is 30-40% below benchmark replacement cost, and it will receive excise duty and sales tax exemptions at some of its new plants. The government’s strategic interest in hydropower will boost the company’s construction order flow (hydro-projects comprise 70% of the order book) and provide opportunities for investment in new projects. The company’s two existing projects earn a 22-24% return on equity. Jaiprakash’s construction business will also see a rebound in construction segment revenue in FY09CL, with a pick-up in progress of the Rs 6,000-crore Taj Expressway project. The addition of 650 acres to its existing land bank of 600 acres in Noida, over the next few months, will deliver visibility on the value-creation potential in the Taj Expressway project.

Indraprastha Gas
Research: Enam Securities (June 11, ’07)
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 120 (Face Value Rs 10)

Indraprastha Gas (IGL) is the only distributor of compressed natural gas (CNG) and piped natural gas (PNG) in the national capital territory of Delhi (NCTD). IGL offers a leveraged play on the increasing penetration of natural gas in India. During Q4 FY07, IGL continued to benefit from its aggressive marketing strategy in CNG and PNG. As a result, it experienced a 12% YoY and 2% QoQ growth in CNG, primarily driven by conversion towards CNG by private car owners. PNG sales grew 44% YoY and 14% QoQ in Q4 FY07. Overall, IGL posted a 13% volume growth in Q4 FY07. Enam expects IGL to sustain a long-term volume growth of over 10% given: (1) economic benefits of CNG (2) regulatory directives and (3) a relatively under-penetrated market. Although competition remains inevitable in the near future, Enam expects IGL’s leadership position to be maintained, given its access to gas supplies and its first mover advantage. Given IGL’s strong business franchise, superior profitability and inexpensive valuations, it’s attractively valued at 9.8x FY08E EPS.

Gateway Distriparks
Research: ASK Securities (June 13, ’07)
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 178 (Face Value Rs 10)

Gateway Distriparks (GDL) is the largest private sector logistics service provider in the container freight station (CFS/ICD) business with a market share of 18%. With India’s containerised traffic set to double to 10 million TEU over the next five years, GDL is well-positioned to capitalise on the same. Unbridled competition in the traditional CFS business has led to a price war, which is most likely to play out for a few more quarters. Hence, margins may remain range-bound at 50%. Landside infrastructure development, particularly with regard to the upcoming dedicated freight corridor, may not lock step with growth in container traffic and therefore, the shift in time lines will impact the overall throughput. GDL is in the right business at the right time. While opportunities are compelling, the near-term prospect for GDL is lukewarm. Hence, GDL is an investment proposition only for the long term. Based on ASK Securities’ DCF analysis, the fair value is Rs 251. GDL discounts its FY08 and FY09 earnings of Rs 9.8 and Rs 11.6 by 18.2x and 15.5x, respectively.

Max India
Research: Merrill Lynch (June 8, ’07)
Rating: Sell
CMP: Rs 250 (Face Value Rs 2)

Merrill Lynch has downgraded Max India to a ‘sell’ as the company continues to lose market share and its first-year premia growth (though up 72% YoY) was 17% below estimates and 30% below the sector growth of 104%. Healthcare revenues were also 16% below estimates. Merrill Lynch has assigned higher NBAP multiples of 20x FY09E NBAP (v/s 16x earlier) due to its strong growth trajectory and higher margins that Max New York Life is likely to have on higher share of traditional policies and lower costs.

ITC, Thermax, Gokaldas, IGL, Patni

UBS on ITC

ITC's FY07 cigarette growth, at 7%, was in line with our estimate, and cigarette segmental revenue growth was 13.3%, aided by an estimated 2-2.5% of weighted price increase and 3-3.5% mix improvements. Gross revenue grew 20.2%, and net revenue grew 26.3%. FY07 operating profits rose 19% YoY. PBT was up 20% but a higher tax rate caused PAT to grow by a little less (18.4%).

Our price target of Rs160 is benchmarked against 18x FY08E earnings, which is the mid-point of ITC's long-term trading band. We maintain our Neutral 2 rating.

Prabhudas Lilladher on Gokaldas Exports

Based on the revised earnings estimates of Rs 24.3 and Rs 31.0, the stock is trading at PER of 9.1x and 7.1x FY08E and FY09E respectively. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock given the attractive valuations and set a 12-month price target of Rs 291 (12.0x FY08E EPS) giving an upward return of 32%.

Man Financial on IGL

Indraprastha Gas Ltd.’s (IGL) Q4FY07 results were much ahead of our expectations with positive surprise in sales volume
• Net sales were up by 21.1% at Rs 1,643mn while net profit was up by 35.6% YoY at Rs 401mn.
• Increase in CNG and PNG volumes by 11.6% and 44.4%, respectively, boosted revenue and net profit growth
• We maintain our Buy rating on the stock and a target price of 135

Citigroup on Patni Computers

Significant outperformance — After outperforming the BSE IT index by 50% in the past 2 months, we downgrade Patni to Sell/Medium Risk. High valuations, coupled with execution risks, tilt the risk-reward profile to the downside.

Why we had upgraded the stock? — We had upgraded Patni based on thefollowing: (a) cheap valuations; and (b) it being an M&A candidate with its cheap valuations and decent size.

Target price at Rs565 — The apparent M&A premium in the current valuations,putting the stock on a par with Satyam, is difficult to justify, in our view. An upside risk remains potential M&A announcements. Our new target price is Rs565, based on a 15% discount to Satyam.

Citigroup on Thermax

Strong recurring PAT growth — Thermax reported Q407 consolidated recurring PAT of Rs668mn, up 74% YoY and 35% ahead of our expectations. Higherthan- expected revenues, EBITDA margins, other income and lower-thanexpected taxes helped boost recurring PAT growth.

Order backlog up 66% YoY, guidance positive — Thermax FY07 end order backlog was Rs36.72bn, up 66% YoY. Management has guided for more than 40% revenue growth in FY08. We await further details in the conference call to be held on May 30.

Maintain Buy (1L) — Thermax remains one of our top picks in the Electrical E quipment and Engineering space. TARGET of Rs 562

House Chitter Chatter - May 29 2007

UBS on Suzlon Energy

We estimate the payment over three years of the estimated acquisition cost of Rs52bn would enable Suzlon Energy (SUEL) to sustain its ROIC over next three years even after Suzlon's estimated capex of Rs36bn over 2008-10E. This is despite, at full acquisition cost, the acquisition could yield a 7.1% EBITDA ROIC in FY09E and 11.6% in FY10E.

We increase our price target from Rs1,100 (on 18x FY09E EPS) to Rs1,250 (which is based on 19x our 12m forward EPS), to reflect a 5% discount to BHEL's price target. We maintain our Reduce 2 rating.


SSKI on IVRCL

IVRCL's 4QFY07 net profit was above our estimates at Rs732mn (+67% yoy) primarily due to higher than estimated revenues and operating margins. The operating margins expanded by 140bps to 10.8% during the quarter led by execution of higher margin orders during the quarter. Moreover, IVRCL has provided tax during FY07 accounting for 80IA tax benefits mainly to preserve its claims with IT Tribunal. We have upgraded 8.8% and by 6.6% for FY08 and FY09 respectively (after factoring a tax rate of 34%) led by higher than estimated operating margins. Going forward, IVRCL is planning to unlock value in its real estate business by listing the real estate subsidiary (IVR Prime- IPUD) over the next 2 months. We have valued the 2300 acres land bank of IVRCL¿s 80% subsidiary IPUD at Rs168/share. The stock is currently trading at 9.9x on FY09E earnings (adjusted for BOT, real estate and HDOL value of Rs201/share). We believe the stock is attractively valued considering its strong order book, healthy balance sheet and strong earnings growth coupled with the likely trigger of value unlocking in its real estate business. We maintain our Outperformer rating on the stock.

SSKI on Nagarjuna Constructions

Nagarjuna Construction Company (NCC) reported 4QFY07 results higher than our estimates led by higher than estimated other income and lower tax rate. Revenues grew by 36% yoy to Rs8.7bn, while operating margins improved marginally by 10bps to 8.4% during the quarter led by higher margin real estate division revenues. As a
result, net profit grew by 43% yoy to Rs499mn in 4QFY07. The order backlog grew by 34% yoy to Rs73bn driven by order booking of Rs11.4bn (+4% yoy) during the quarter. However, we have downgraded our earnings estimate by 2% and 4% for FY08 and FY09 respectively led by lower than estimated operating margins. The stock is currently trading at 10.9x FY09E earnings (net of BOT and real estate valuation of Rs41/share), which we believe is attractive considering its strong order book and resultant visibility of strong earnings growth over FY07-09. We maintain our Outperformer rating on the stock.

SSKI on Unitech

Unitech reported a 308% yoy growth in Q4FY07 standalone revenues to Rs8.5bn, marginally below estimates. EBITDA increased by 766% yoy to Rs5.1bn, led by strong realisations in the company's key markets in the NCR. Consequently, EBITDA margins improved to 60.1% in the current quarter from 28.3% in Q4FY06. For FY07, Unitech reported a 168% yoy growth in consolidated revenues to Rs32.8bn, driven by strong realisations across key markets like NCR and Kolkata. The strong realisations and sale of stake in IT parks to Unitech Corporate Parks also resulted in a strong 1087% yoy growth in EBITDA to Rs20bn. We are not changing our FY08 earnings estimates and expect Unitech's profits to rise by 118%yoy to Rs27.4bn. We like Unitech's strategy of pan India presence, focus on residential development and outright sale / exit from non-residential properties, which improves its capital utilisation and enables it to grow its land bank rapidly. We maintain our Outperformer rating on the stock.

SSKI on Jain Irrigation

Taking a big leap in its pursuit to increase presence in the key MIS markets globally (India, US, Israel and Africa), Jain Irrigation has acquired majority stake (50% + 1 share) in Israel based irrigation company - NaanDan for US $ 21.5m. This is the largest acquisition by Jain Irrigation. NaanDan (a co-operative) enjoys a strong equity in the Israel market and does revenue of around US $ 75m annually. We see immense merit in the deal, as JISL gets a foothold into one of the largest MIS markets (Israel), opportunity to introduce its sprinklers systems in Israel, access to NaanDan's manufacturing and distribution network in USA, Africa, Europe, Latin America and Australia and attractive valuations of less than 0.6x revenues (Plastro, Israel was sold at 1x revenues to John Deere). We continue to maintain our positive stance on JISL, given the high growth traction in the existing operations and appetite to operate in global market through inorganic route. Reiterate Outperformer.


SSKI on HDFC

HDFC has announced a preferential allotment of 18m equity shares at Rs1,730 per share (aggregating Rs31.14bn) to the Carlyle group and Citigroup Strategic Holdings Mauritius Ltd . Post the transaction, Carlyle would own a 5.6% stake in HDFC while Citigroup's holding would be maintained at 12.3%. The capital is being raised primarily to finance the rapid expansion of HDFC Bank and HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company. To factor in the equity dilution, we are downgrading our EPS estimates for HDFC by 4.2% and 3.8% for FY08 and FY09 respectively (while upgrading profit estimates by ~ 3% for FY08 and FY09). Considering the significant infusion in the life insurance venture, we are revising our value of life insurance subsidiary from Rs273 per share for FY09 to Rs297 per share. Adjusting for the strategic investment valuation of Rs570 per share for FY09, the stock is available at 2.75x FY09E adjusted book value (diluted basis). We reiterate Outperformer with a revised price target of Rs2,200 after factoring in the impact of equity dilution.

Motilal Oswal on United Spirits

We estimate that Whyte & MacKay will contribute £0.6m (before exceptional one-time costs of £7m-£10m) and £13m to the consolidated profits after interest payments in FY08 and FY09 respectively. We expect United Spirits to pay back debt taken in the SPV up to £200m from the sale of treasury stock after the merger of Shaw Wallace which can result in profits and EPS being higher than our estimates. We maintain Buy.

Motilal Oswal on PNB

While higher delinquencies is concerning and would require higher provisions going forward, a high CASA of 46%, would result in stable margins for PNB. Growing fee income at a strong rate is commendable. Going forward, we expect consistent trend in NII coupled with a lower risk on the bond portfolio. The stock trades at 1.2x FY09E BV and 6.7x FY09E EPS. Maintain Buy.

Man Financial maintains Neutral on BPCL

Citigroup on Nifty

The index opened on a strong note but was unable to hold onto its opening trade gains. It posted an intra-day high at 4296 then drifted down through the entire trading session to end the day up 5 points.

The index has support around the 10dma at 4222 and 4200 -(62% retracement of the past two trading sessions' gains from a low of 4141 to a high of 4296. Intra-day dips should find support in the 4222- 4200 band.

The index faces resistance at 4291 (high of 23 May 07),while consolidation in the 4291 and 4200 band can be expected until it1 remains below 4291 on a closing basis.

Expect intra-day range-bound movement in the 4191-4222 band.


EQM on P&G

At the current price of Rs 760, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 18.4 times its trailing 12-month earnings. Capitalizing on the opportunity existing in the hygiene segment, PGHH is likely to benefit from the same going forward. It is now a focused two-product company, with both these brands in the lifestyle segment. The move to divest the low margin segment of contract manufacturing has also paid off and will contribute to the margin expansion. However, increasing competition will continue to remain a cause for concern.

EQM on ITC

At the current price of Rs 168, the stock is trading at a price to earnings multiple of 23.4 times its 12-months trailing earnings. The strong performance of the non-cigarette business is positive for the company. With duties on cigarettes increasing, the volumes could be impacted to a certain extent. Hence, lower dependence on this segment would benefit the company in the long term. We derive comfort from the fact that the company has been able to run its other businesses rather successfully and are positive on the company from a long-term perspective. Valuations from a medium term perspective though, look stretched.


Geojit on Usha Martin

At current market price of Rs. 244.75, the share (Rs. 5/- paid up) is trading at 9.3 times FY 2007 consolidated EPS of Rs. 26.3 and 6.2 times FY 2008 expected consolidated earnings of Rs. 40/-; Company¿s earnings will receive major boost with progress / completion of above expansion plans. In view of excellent prospects, we recommend to 'BUY' the share at CMP.

UBS - Pantaloon

UBS - Pantaloon

Macquarie - GAIL,UBS - Shoppers Stop

Macquarie - GAILUBS - Shoppers Stop

UBS - IDFC, Reliance Energy, IDEA, Maharastra Seamless, Sun Pharma

IDFC

Reliance Energy

IDEA Cellular

Maharastra Seamless

Sun Pharma

UBS - ACC, Grasim, Patni Computers

ACC

Grasim

Patni Computers

UBS - India Media Sector - ENIL, HT Media, Sun TV

UBS - India Media Sector

ENIL,

HT Media

Sun TV

UBS - Power Sector

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HSBC, UBS - India Utilities

HSBC

UBS

Budget Analysis - UBS, DB, ENAM, Morgan Stanley

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UBS India Strategy 2007 - Sensex - 15000

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BHEL - UBS Warburg

Broking House - UBS Warburg
Recommendation - Buy
Chinese competition a hurdle but Orders to boost growth.

In its report dated 18th December 2006 UBS Investment Research (UBS) initiates a Buy coverage on Bharat Heavy Electrical Limited (BHEL) with CMP of Rs2496.25 and a target price of Rs 2,950.

UBS throws light that BHEL focuses on the Indian power equipment business, which accounted for 65% of revenue and 79% of PBIT for FY04. Its main customer is National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC), accounting for over 50% of revenue. BHEL also services the power transmission, captive power plant, industrial equipment, and the transportation segments. Actual/deemed exports accounted for 24% of revenue in FY04, and the company has added several new markets to its portfolio. It is 68%-owned by the Government of India.

UBS mentions that Lanco Infratech won the Sasan ultra mega project (UMPP) by quoting a levelised tariff of Rs1.19/Kwh. NTPC''s bid was at Rs2.1/Kwh. Of Lanco''s bid, Rs0.9/Kwh are fixed (NTPC at Rs1.2 /Kwh) and Rs0.3/Kwh is fuel cost (Rs0.9/Kwh). UBS further points out that fixed cost is a total of E&C (coal and power), interest, returns, and depreciation. BHEL is NTPC''s equipment supplier and Dongfeng, for Lanco.

UBS mentions that Dongfeng''s equipment costs are Rs1.7-1.8cr/MW whereas for BHEL, costs are higher by 25-30% at Rs2.2-2.4cr/MW, which is expected given the issue of reliability of Chinese equipment raised by few customers. Although the event could call for lower prices, and lower BHEL''s long term (LT) margins, UBS thinks there is a case for higher prices by BHEL, if not by 25%.

UBS highlights that lowering LT margin by 200bps lowers fair value by 11%. Near term, UBS retains that FY06-09E EPS CAGR of 30% given visibility and since UBS does not have UMPP in our estimates. UBS also retains their view on BHEL given expected visibility on orders, and profits. UBS will take a more objective view after management meetings.

Finally, UBS makes us aware that BHEL is its top pick in the engineering space. The key assumptions of DCF according to UBS are WACC of 12.1%, revenue growth of 20% over FY09-14E, and terminal g of 5%.

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UBS - Reliance Energy

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UBS : Monthly Pharma Trends

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