Morning Notes, Options - Jan 28 2008

Morning Notes, Options - Jan 28 2008

Edelweiss - F&O Perspective, Stay Put

Edelweiss - F&O Perspective, Stay Put

Emkay - Mid-April '07 - F&O Review

Market Outlook:

• Nifty and Sensex both gained 3.1% during first half of April series.
• We expect Nifty to remain strong and witness further upside move in the coming days as remarkable build up of positions with improvement in CoC is seen across the board.
• Implied Volatility of Nifty March options is currently trading in range of 22-23% compared to high levels of 26-28% during the first half of april series; this indicates decline in uncertainty and expectation of stable markets in the coming days.
• PCR (OI) of Nifty has also improved to 1.18x due to build up in Nifty Put options suggesting development of support in the markets.

F&O Cues:

• April total futures open interest at Rs 36025 Crs compared to Rs.28780 Crs at the beginning of April series; increase of 25.2%
• Stock futures's OI for April series currently at Rs.22720 Crs compared to Rs.17460 Crs beginning of series; sharp rise of 30%.
• Open Interest in April stock futures, in terms of number of shares, is nearly 93.75 Crore shares compared to 79 Crore shares at the beginning of April series; increase of 18.7%.
• OI in Nifty April futures currently at 3.4 crore shares v/s 2.97 crore shares at the beginning of April series. In value terms, currently Nifty April OI is nearly Rs.13300 crores v/s Rs.11300 crores at the beginning of April series.
• Huge build up of over 41 lakh shares seen in Nifty 3800 Put options; indicating that players may be looking at 3800 levels to offer strong support in the coming days.

SECTORAL OUTLOOK:

Auto & Auto Ancillary : HeroHonda, M&M & Maruti expected to trade with negative bias.

Banking & Finance: Heavyweights like SBI, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, HDFC and other stocks like IFCI, Reliance Capital, Kotak Bank & IDFC look strong.

Cement & Construction : Cement Stocks like ACC, Guj Ambuja and Construction stocks like Parsvnath Developers & Sobha Developers are looking strong.

FMCG: ITC & HLL look strong

IT & Telecom: Infosys, TCS, Satyam, Wipro, RCOM & Bharti are looking strong. Mid-cap IT stocks like I-flex, Polaris & HCL Tech are also looking strong.

Metals: Bullish on Sterlite & SAIL. Jindal Stainless look strong. Short covering seen in TataSteel.

Oil, Gas & Refinery : Bullish on Reliance, ONGC, RPL & GAIL looks strong.

Pharma: Ranbaxy, Orchid Chem, Dr.Reddy, Divis Lab, Cipla, Sun Pharma, Glaxo and Lupin are looking strong.

Power & Engineering : We like BHEL, NTPC, Suzlon, Praj, CESC, ABB and TataPower.

Others: We like Zee, Titan, NDTV, Voltas, BILT and Guj Alkali

Emkay - Mid-April '07 - F&O Review

Anagram - F&O Cues

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Thanks Sulagna

Indiainfoline- Support, Resistances & F&O

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Myriad of investment options

If you are an NRI, you must be celebrating already! You already remit your well-earned money into India. The Government of India, as indeed all of corporate India, has big plans for a billion-strong country growing at a blistering 8% today.

And the government is extremely keen that you and the now six million-strong diaspora of NRIs continue to play an important role in the growth story of the country. You should be happy to know that the floodgates are opening for a myriad of investment options. So, let’s put pen to paper and see how you would like your India strategy to work for you.

Ask some questions

Information is everywhere. Your favourite relationship manager from your bank may have met you already at your San Antonio home and discussed anything from the suddenly-rocketing demand for low-cost housing in Ahmedabad to the prospects of urad daal gaining over the next few months from a lower-than-usual summer harvest... to how with a mix of global bonds and equity or a specific structure with an option for leverage you can ‘sophisticate’ your portfolio immediately!

But before you write out a cheque to fuel your India-strategy—and especially if your investment has so far been confined to a bank deposit—do ask yourself these questions: Are your expectations realistic? Do you understand the inimical relationship between risk and return? Can you write out your India-money strategy on a napkin? Simple one-word answers to questions like would you like to preserve, create or enhance your wealth in India?

Choosing your bank

After you’re clear on your investment approach, you need to select a bank to facilitate your India-investment plan. Consider these while choosing your bank :

Presence in your city: Ideally, your bank should offer you both – local and international banking, with relationship managers or India desks in your city to understand and cater to your India-investment decisions. This way you can move money between countries, asset types and periods you choose to make investments for, quickly and at low cost.

Good India presence: While your bank may be a strong international presence with a reputation built over the years, it also needs to have a good India presence in terms of distribution points and INR products. Larger the canvas, more are your options. A little independent research by looking up websites will benefit you.

NRI community feedback: Do find out more about critical elements such as customer service and servicing channels. Chatting up with a good NRI friend or relative who may be banking already may be a good idea.

Counselling services: Find out if your bank offers you free counselling on tax planning and insurance-related matters, perhaps someone to help you interpret and even put to good use NRI-specific laws on investments.

Remittance facility: Does your bank allow you to remit funds into India in a cost-effective manner from your city of domicile. That apartment you’ve liked in an upcoming housing project in Mumbai... You should have comfort that your chosen bank can facilitate the funds transfer within the closing date.

Product Strategy

There always will be more India products than you can count! Here’s a suggested product strategy.

Products need to suit you: All products are risky – some more, some less. Indian equity may be growing at a brisk pace but it may not be good for you to put a bulk of your retirement money should you plan to earn a well-deserved rest and go back to gardening at your Kolkata home next year.

Have a wide canvas: Start with as wide a canvass as possible. A good range would comprise equity, bonds, commodities, mutual funds, real estate options, including a home for you to come back to. Most of these are appreciating today at a fair clip.

Check performance: Websites from reputed agencies who gain little by selling you, may help you arrive at a list of performing products.

Trust the wise guys: If you cannot follow up on your investments on a daily basis, choose a discretionary portfolio management product or a mutual fund and allow your banker to research the category for you.

Don’t get emotional with investments: This is what every successful wealth creator would tell you. Keep tabs on your portfolio performance at all times and know when to cut losses and relationships if necessary.

After you do write out that cheque, don’t stop collecting ideas and insights. Start a file for your India money affairs. Paste your thoughts in it and not just charts on fund performance. Give yourself an otherwise lazy Sunday afternoon to ponder over these. Always date your ideas. You could even make it a household thing and discuss your plans with your spouse and children.

Support & Resistances, F&O

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