Post Session Commentary - Jan 15 2009

The Indian market closed in red terrain after losing all its yesterday’s gains on huge selling observed across the board. Further plunge in inflation failed to lift the market due to the slow down in global equities and intensifying banking crisis in the United States. News that North America''s biggest telephone equipment maker Nortel has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and US retails sales have reported worse than expected numbers triggered a sell-off in US markets. Drop in European markets after positive opening, also fueled the market sentiments.

The domestic market today opened significantly lower on the back of weak cues from the global markets. Further, market continued to trade with heavy losses on huge sell off led by the continuous downfalls into the Asian markets that reflected negative sentiment to the Indian market. Stocks extended their losses and ignored the fall in inflation for the week ended January 3 2009, to 5.24% from 5.91% in the previous week. Concerns for the slowing global economy along with decline in corporate earnings also contributed to huge sell off that led the market to close with heavy losses. From the sectoral front, all indices ended in red and Bank and Reality stocks under performed the other sectoral indices as ended with deep cut of more than 5% and 4% respectively. Apart from that, Metal, IT, Teck, Power, Oil & Gas and PSU stocks witnessed most of the selling from these baskets. Midcap and Smallcap stocks also remained weak.

Inflation for week ended 3rd Jan 2008, stood at 5.24% as against 5.91% of the previous week, triggered by cheaper non-administered fuel prices along with goods and food items. WPI for all commodities is down by 0.2% at 229 and primary articles are down 0.5% (WoW).

Among the Sensex pack 29 stocks ended in red territory and 1 in green. The market breadth remained weak as 1649 stocks closed in red while 698 stocks closed in green and 100 stocks remained unchanged in BSE.

The BSE Sensex closed lower by 323.75 points at 9,046.74 and NSE Nifty ended down by 98.60 points at 2,736.70. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps ended with losses of 52.67 points and 75.21 points at 3,010.81 and 3,410.48 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 9,123.78 and intraday low of 8,946.62.

Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are JP Associates (8.03%), Tata Steel (7.33%), ICICI Bank (7.31%), Reliance Communication Ltd (6.01%), HDFC Bank (5.41%), TCS Ltd (5.28%), Hindalco (4.64%), DLF Ltd (4.46%), SBI (4.42%), Infosys Tech (4.05%), Tata Power (3.80%) and Wipro Ltd (3.55%).

Only one gainer from the BSE Sensex pack is Grasim Indus (0.85%).

The BSE Bank index tumbled (5.69%) or 296.79 points to close at 4,918.88 as Kotak Bank (9.35%), Canara Bank (8.32%), ICICI Bank (7.31%), Sterlite Indus (7.10%), PNB (7.12%), Oriental Bank (6.69%) and HDFC Bank (5.41%) ended in negative territory.

The BSE Reality index closed down by (4.72%) or 87.47 points at 1,766.02. Major losers are Orbit Co (9.53%), Unitech Ltd (9.00%), Housing Dev (6.12%), Ansal Infra (5.85%), Mahindra Life (5.70%) and Indiabull Real (4.50%).

The BSE Metal index ended lower by (4.53%) or 228.87 points at 4,829.02. Main losers are Tata Steel (7.33%), Sterlite Indus (7.10%), Steel Authority (5.23%), Jai Corp Ltd (4.95%), Ispat Indus (4.71%) and Hindalco (4.64%).

The BSE IT index closed with decrease of (4.11%) or 92.72 points at 2,162.70. Scrips that lost are HCL Tech (7.45%), TCS Ltd (5.28%), NIIT Ltd (5.00%), Aptech Ltd (4.61%), Infosys Tech (4.00%) and Financ Tech (3.80%).

The BSE Teck index dropped by (43.77%) or 69.42 points to close at 1,770.20 as Tanla (8.11%), HCL Tech (7.45%), Tata Communications (6.14%), Reliance Communication Ltd (6.01%), Idea Cell (5.93%), TCS Ltd (5.28%) and NIIT Ltd (5.00%) ended in red.

The BSE Power index declined (2.98%) or 52.05 points at 1,694.69. Losers are Siemens Ltd (7.38%), GMR Infra (7.34%), Crompton Greaves (5.62%), Suzlon Energy (4.20%), Reliance Power (4.17%) and Reliance Infra (3.47%).

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Jan 15 2009

Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
15/1/2009 521244 CHITRA.SPIN. SRECKO INDHAN LIMITED B 44884 3.90
15/1/2009 521244 CHITRA.SPIN. RAMESH BABU P S 34079 3.90
15/1/2009 521244 CHITRA.SPIN. PRABHAKARA RAO PILLI S 27884 3.90
15/1/2009 531127 ENRICH INDUT KAUSHAL ASHWIN GANDHI B 38529 3.20
15/1/2009 505576 GOLDCRES FIN BHARAT SHAH S 130000 15.00
15/1/2009 530655 GOOD LUCK ST RAJASTHAN GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD B 18700 95.05
15/1/2009 512047 NATRAJ FIN MUKESHKUMAR SESHMAL KHANDELWAL B 36800 30.17
15/1/2009 500307 NIRLON LTD MATTERHORN VENTURES B 820000 24.50
15/1/2009 500307 NIRLON LTD KAMPPILYA INVESTMENTS PVT LTD B 743115 24.42
15/1/2009 500307 NIRLON LTD CITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS MAURITIUS PRIVATE LIMITED S 1021606 24.50
15/1/2009 500307 NIRLON LTD CLSA MAURITIUS LIMITED S 504115 24.50
15/1/2009 531996 ODYSSEY CORP SAHILJAIPRAKASHJINDAL S 50000 20.08
15/1/2009 531996 ODYSSEY CORP DEENAJAIPRAKASHJINDAL S 50000 20.12
15/1/2009 500376 SATYAM COMP SWISS FINANCE CORPORATION MAURITIUS LIMITED S 4889000 21.58
15/1/2009 500376 SATYAM COMP LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC S 11341553 21.71
15/1/2009 531373 SUAVE HOTEL COMMERCIAL CONCEPT PRIVATE LIMITED S 69326 11.30
15/1/2009 509930 SUPREM IND* SUPREME INDUSTRIES LTD B 380000 110.76
15/1/2009 531249 WELL PACK PA GANDHI MANISHA NAVNEETLAL B 37700 39.08
15/1/2009 531249 WELL PACK PA RAMESHBHAI V PARMAR B 32000 39.06
15/1/2009 531249 WELL PACK PA REKHA BHANDARI B 71572 39.20
15/1/2009 531249 WELL PACK PA GANDHI MANISHA NAVNEETLAL S 37700 39.20
15/1/2009 531249 WELL PACK PA RAMESHBHAI V PARMAR S 22500 39.20

NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Jan 15 2009

Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
15-JAN-2009,EVINIX,Evinix Accessories Limite,NCR BUILDTECH PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,908000,2.70,-
15-JAN-2009,HCIL,HIMADRI CHEMICALS AND IND,HIMADRI DYES & INTERMEDIATES LTD,BUY,350000,90.00,-
15-JAN-2009,IVRCLINFRA,IVRCL Infra & Proj Ltd,DIMENSIONAL EMER MKTS VALUE FD INC,BUY,879070,117.24,-
15-JAN-2009,SATYAMCOMP,Satyam Computers Ltd,ADROIT FINANCIAL SERVICES PVT LTD,BUY,4652456,21.76,-
15-JAN-2009,SATYAMCOMP,Satyam Computers Ltd,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,3410738,21.51,-
15-JAN-2009,SUPREMEIND,Supreme Industries Ltd,THE SUPREME INDUSTRIES LTD.,BUY,380000,110.07,-
15-JAN-2009,EVINIX,Evinix Accessories Limite,COROLATION BUILDERS PVT LTD,SELL,893000,2.70,-
15-JAN-2009,HCIL,HIMADRI CHEMICALS AND IND,VIJAY KUMAR CHOUDHARY,SELL,350000,90.00,-
15-JAN-2009,SASKEN,Sasken Commu Techno Ltd,SUNDARAM BNP PARIBAS SELECT MIDCAP,SELL,214328,45.20,-
15-JAN-2009,SATYAMCOMP,Satyam Computers Ltd,ADROIT FINANCIAL SERVICES PVT LTD,SELL,4685456,21.69,-
15-JAN-2009,SATYAMCOMP,Satyam Computers Ltd,LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC A/C GENERAL CONFERENCE CORPORAT,SELL,24400000,21.74,-
15-JAN-2009,SATYAMCOMP,Satyam Computers Ltd,SWISS FINANCE CORPORATION (MAURITIUS) LIMITED,SELL,6000000,21.36,-
15-JAN-2009,SATYAMCOMP,Satyam Computers Ltd,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,3433833,21.57,-

Sensex 324 down

Sensex ended the day with a loss of 324 points after crashing to a low of 8,947 during intra-day trades. The market crashed over 400 points in line with the other major global indices, as US recession fears played on investors’ sentiment. Despite gaining over 300 points in Wednesday's trades, Sensex resumed 272 points lower at 9,098. It tanked by another 151 points to touch the day's low of 8,947 on relentless selling in banking, realty, metal and technology stocks. Sensex managed to recover around 98 points in late trades, but still ended with a loss of 324 points at 9,047. Nifty shed 99 points to close at 2,737.

The market breadth was negative. Of the 2,447 stocks traded on BSE 1,649 stocks declined, whereas 698 stocks advanced. Hundred stocks ended unchanged. Among sectoral indices BSE Bankex tumbled 5.69%, BSE Realty slipped 4.72%, BSE Metal lost 4.53% and BSE IT was down 4.11%.

Several index heavyweights came under selling pressure and ended in the red. JP Associates was the major loser and tumbled 8.03% at Rs64.70. Tata Steel at Rs197.80, ICICI Bank at Rs408.85, Sterlite Industries at Rs253.70, Reliance Communications at Rs174.25, HDFC Bank at Rs924.50 and Tata Consultancy Services at Rs510 slumped around 5-7% each. However Grasim Industries gained 0.85% at Rs1,294.40 and Maruti Suzuki India gained 0.54% at Rs599.08.

Over 5.60 crore shares of Satyam Consultancy Services changed hands on BSE followed by Reliance Industries (2.82 crore shares), Unitech (1.47 crore shares), JP Associates (70.87 lakh shares) and GVK Power & Infrastructure (65.33 lakh shares).

Sensex sheds 3.45% as US bank crisis deepens

Weak global equities and a deepening banking crisis in the United States pulled the domestic bourses lower in choppy trade. Nevertheless, the market cut sharp intraday losses as index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) and IT pivotals recovered from lower level. The BSE 30-share Sensex lost 323.75 points, or 3.45%, off 100.12 points from the day's low. Data showing a fall in inflation to 11-month low which will provide room for the central bank to further cut interest rates, helped the market cut steep intraday losses.

Selling by foreign funds pulled the market down. Foreign funds sold shares worth a net Rs 484.33 crore, as per provisional data released by the stock exchanges after trading hours. Domestic funds bought shares worth a net Rs 175.12 crore, as per the provisional data.

After opening on a weak note, the market bounced back after the inflation data which hit the market at about 11:30 IST. But the recovery proved short-lived with the Sensex tumbling 4.52% in mid-afternoon trade. The market cut losses in late trade.

Inflation for the year through 3 January 2009 fell to a 11-month low of 5.24% from 5.91% in the previous week, government data released during market hours today, 15 January 2009 showed. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has eased monetary policy over the past few months to soften the impact of the global financial crisis and economic recession in key world economies on the Indian economy.

US stocks fell to six-week lows on Wednesday, 14 January 2009, on worries about steeper losses at banks worldwide and as US retail sales data pointed to a deepening recession. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 248.34 points, or 2.94%, to 8,200.22. The S&P 500 slid 29.12 points, or 3.34%, to 842.67 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 56.82 points, or 3.67%, to 1,489.64.

Citigroup shares tumbled as investors and analysts worried whether the bank can be profitable as it unravels its business model. It is expected to post a multibillion-dollar loss this week.

Fears about the banking sector were exacerbated after Morgan Stanley analysts forecast HSBC, Europe's biggest bank, is likely to halve its dividend and may need to raise up to $30 billion of capital, while Germany's Deutsche Bank said it lost more than $6 billion last quarter. Highlighting the strain banks are under, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US government is close to extending billions more aid to Bank of America Corp, sending the bank's stock lower after trading hours in the United States.

European shares fell for the seventh session in a row in volatile trade on escalating fears over the beleaguered banking sector. Key benchmark indices in UK, Germany and France were down by between 0.09% and 0.66%.

Asian markets tumbled today, 15 December 2009, on weak US retail sales and a record fall in Japanese machinery orders. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan fell by between 0.45% and 6.03%.

Data on Wednesday showed US retail sales dropped a steep 2.7% in December 2008 as the economic slowdown made consumers cut back on spending during retailers' crucial holiday selling period. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of US economic activity, making it a key pillar of corporate profits.

Core Japanese machinery orders fell a record 16.2% in November 2008 to a two-decade low, in another sign that the global crisis has stalled capital investment, data on Thursday, 15 January 2009, showed.

The BSE 30-share Sensex lost 323.75 points or 3.45% at 9,046.74. The Sensex opened 369.87 points lower at 9,000.62. The Sensex lost 423.87 points at day's low of 8,946.62 in mid-afternoon trade. The Sensex fell 246.71 points at day's high of 9,123.78 in afternoon trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty lost 98.60 points or 3.48% at 2,736.70. Nifty January 2009 futures were at 2718.60, at a discount of 18.10 points as compared to the spot closing.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was weak on BSE with 1633 shares declining as compared with 736 that rose. 95 shares remained unchanged.

The BSE Mid-Cap index slipped 1.72% at 3,010.81 and the BSE Small-Cap index fell 2.16% at 3,410.48. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 2,896 crore as compared to Rs 2,818.60 crore on Wednesday, 14 January 2009. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment increased to Rs 40,218.44 crore, from Rs 36,766.76 crore on Wednesday, 14 January 2009.

All BSE sectoral indices posted losses. The BSE Metal index (down 4.53%), the BSE Teck index (down 3.77%), BSE IT index (down 4.11%), the BSE Bankex (down 5.69%), BSE Realty index (down 4.72%), underperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Oil & Gas index (down 2.82%), BSE HealthCare index (down 1.76%), the BSE PSU index (down 2.61%), the BSE Power index (down 2.98%), BSE Capital Goods index (down 1.68%), BSE Consumer Durables index (down 1.66%), the BSE FMCG index (down 1.31%), the BSE Auto index (down 0.92%), outperformed the Sensex.

Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 26 declined while the rest gained. Tata Steel (down 7.38%), Sterlite Industries (down 6.59%), and Reliance Communications (down 6.15%), edged lower from the Sensex pack.

Maruti Suzuki India (up 0.24%), Grasim (up 0.01%), Ranbaxy (up 0.09%) and Mahindra & Mahindra (up 0.02%), edged higher from the Sensex pack.

Banking stocks tumbled on fears of rising defaults in a slowing economy. India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank slumped 7.27% to Rs 409.05 after its ADR lost 3.17% on Wednesday, 14 January 2009. The stock rebounded from early low of Rs 398.20.

India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank shed 5.95% to Rs 919.20 after its ADR slipped 5.39% on Wednesday, 14 January 2009. The stock had lost 1.14% yesterday, 14 January 2009, after the bank's gross net performing assets (NPA) rose 120.47% to Rs 1911.41 crore as at 31 December 2008 from Rs 866.97 crore as on 31 December 2007, the private sector bank said at the time of announcing Q3 results during trading hours

India's biggest bank in terms of total assets and branch network, State Bank of India fell 4.23% to Rs 1149, off day's low of Rs 1136.

India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) was down 2.47% to Rs 1149.10, off day's low of Rs 1109, on reports its unit Reliance Petroleum (RPL) will start fuel exports from its new refinery this month. RPL was down 3.18%. RPL, last month, commissioned its 5,80,000-barrels-per-day only for exports refinery at Jamnagar in Gujarat.

The RIL stock had slumped as much as 5.8% in early trade today, 15 January 2009, after a television report after trading hours on yesterday said RIL has denied rumours that it had reached an out-of-court settlement on a dispute on gas sales with Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL). The stock had surged 9.48% yesterday, 14 January 2009 on speculation of an out-of-court settlement of the dispute. RNRL slipped 4.98%.

The Bombay High Court's interim order in May 2007 had directed RIL not to create third party interest for the disputed volume of 40 million standard cubic metres per day (mscmd) of gas from the K-G basin.

RIL and Anil Dhirubhai Ambani group firm Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) had agreed on a price of $2.34 per million British thermal units (mBtu) in July 2006, but RIL wanted to charge more after gas prices rose and costs climbed. The government in September 2007 set the price of gas from the K-G field for potential buyers at $4.2 per million mBtu. The price was linked to crude oil equal to or more than $60 a barrel.

India's largest state run oil exploration firm by market capitalisation Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) slipped 3.10% to Rs 625 and India's largest private sector oil exploration firm by market capitalisation Cairn India lost 3.82% to Rs 149.90 on fall in crude oil price.

State run oil marketing companies were mixed and outperformed the Sensex on reports the cabinet committee on economic affairs is unlikely to take up the issue of reducing petrol, diesel and domestic LPG prices at a meeting scheduled today, 15 January 2009. HPCL (up 1.60%), and BPCL (up 1.17%), while IOC (down 1.59%), outperformed the Sensex. As per latest reports state-run oil companies are currently making Rs 9.70 a litre profit on sale of petrol, Rs 3.70 a litre on diesel, but are loosing Rs 31.70 per LPG cylinder and Rs 11.69 on every litre of kerosene.

There has been speculation that the government will announce a cut in petrol, diesel and LPG prices on Thursday, 15 January 2009

US light crude for February 2009 delivery fell by 71 cents to $36.57 a barrel today, 15 January 2009 on grim economic data from the world's major economies.

Outsourcing focussed IT firms fell as fears a weak global economy would cut the amount firms spent on technology offset a weaker rupee. India's largest software services exporter TCS lost 5.46% to Rs 509.25, after sliding to day's low of Rs 495.60. The company will declare its Q3 December 2008 results today, 15 January 2009.

But India's second largest software services exporter Infosys Technologies recovered from the day's low of Rs 1215.10 and ended 3.83% lower at Rs 1254.85 after its chief financial officer said during market hours today, 15 January 2009, that bankruptcy filing by its client Nortel Networks will have any material impact on the company's operations or financial condition. Nortel's contribution to revenues is less than half a percent of yearly revenues based on the current revenue run rate, Infosys said.

India's third largest software services exporter, Wipro, too, recovered from low of Rs 218.30 to settle with 2.07% loss to Rs 238.90 after Manish Dugar, chief financial officer of Wipro said during market hours today, 15 January 2008, a major portion of Nortel Networks business is expected to continue even after the telecom equipment maker filed for bankruptcy in the United States on Wednesday, 14 January 2009

Nortel, accounts for less than 1.5% of its information technology business revenue, Manish Dugar, chief financial officer of Wipro Technologies, said in a statement. Dugar said the outstanding amount from North America's biggest telephone equipment maker was $15 million, subject to arbitration.

India's fourth largest software services exporter Satyam Computer Services slumped 31.72% to Rs 20.45 after Economic Affairs Secretary Ashok Chawla today, 15 January 2009, said the government is not at the moment considering any financial bailout package for the fraud-hit firm.

Satyam's founder and former chairman B Ramalinga Raju during trading hours on Wednesday, 7 January 2009, admitted to a nearly Rs 7000-crore financial fraud. The market has been agog with speculation that the government will pump cash into the technology outsourcing company to ensure its survival.

Sasken Communication Technologies plunged 19.59% to Rs 43.50 after Nortel Networks Corp which holds a 9.5% stake in the Indian firm, filed for bankruptcy in the United States on Wednesday, 14 January 2009.

Indian rupee depreciated against the dollar today, 15 January 2009 as dollar demand increases amid weakening local stocks. The rupee was trading at 49.01/02 against the greenback over Wednesday's close of 48.82/84 a dollar. A weak rupee benefits IT firms as the sector earns most of its revenues from exports.

The mega accounting scandal at Satyam which was unearthed last week weighed on realty and infrastructure shares on market perception that a number of realty and infrastructure firms do not strictly follow good corporate governance practices.

India's largest dam builder Jaiprakash Associates tumbled 8.32% to Rs 64.50 and was the top loser from the Sensex pack.

Reliance Infrastructure (down 3.90%), IVRCL Infrastructure (down 2.07%)and GMR Infrastructure (down 8.25%) declined from the infrastructure pack.

Among realty firms, Housing Development & Infrastructure (down 6.26%), Indiabulls Real Estate (down 5.40%), edged lower.

India's largest real estate firm by market capitalisation DLF slumped 3.66% to Rs 204 on reports it is planning to turn down its special economic zone (SEZ) plans, battered by low demand for real estate. The company is planning to start five of its SEZs after 2010 when demand revives.

Unitech plunged 9.57% to Rs 31.65 after the global rating agency Fitch downgraded long-term debt rating of the realty firm to below investment grade.

Maytas Infra hit 5% lower circuit to Rs 123.15 on reports a section of the United Progressive Alliance government wants cancellation of the Hyderabad Metro Rail project awarded to the firm.

Metal stocks declined on fall in metal prices on the London Metal Exchange. India's largest copper maker by sales Sterlite Industries (India) slumped 6.59% to Rs 255.10 after its American depository receipt (ADR) lost 2.55% on Wednesday, 14 January 2009.

Tata Steel (down 7.38% to Rs 197.70), and Hindalco Industries (down 4.55% to Rs 48.30), slipped from the metal pack.

India's largest cellular services provider by sales Bharti Airtel fell 3.08% to Rs 605 after foreign brokerage firm JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its rating on the stock to neutral from overweight.

Reliance Industries was the top traded counter on the BSE with turnover of Rs 257.35 crore followed by Reliance Natural Resources (144.90 crore), Reliance Capital (Rs 132.85 crore), Satyam Computer Services (Rs 122.30 crore) and ICICI Bank (Rs 119 crore).

Satyam Computer Services led the volume chart on BSE clocking volumes of 5.60 crore shares followed by Reliance Natural Resources (2.82 crore), Unitech (1.48 crore), Jaiprakash Associates (71 lakh) and GVK Power Infrastructure (65.35 lakh).

FMCG shares were mixed and outperformed the Sensex on defensive buying. Hindustan Unilever (down 1.99%), Colgate Palmolive India (down 1.63%), Nestle India (down 0.07%), United Spirits (up 1.98%), and Procter & Gamble (down 0.38% to Rs 802), and Nirma (down 0.95%), though down, outperformed the BSE Sensex.

Fertiliser shares gained on reports Reliance Industries is likely to start gas production from its Eastern Offshore KG-D6 block by the month-end. National Fertilisers (up 15.71%), RCF (up 3.52%), GSFC (up 1.84%), Nagarjuna Fertiliser (up 2.23%), and Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals (up 0.78%), gained.

Dr Reddys Laboratories slumped 6.96% to Rs 444.10 on reports its consignment worth $500,000 has been seized in transit by Dutch customs officials on charges of patent infringement

SGX Plunges - Live Update - Jan 15 2009

SGX Nifty at 2,705.0 trading -116.0 pts

Pre Session Commentary - Jan 15 2009

Today the markets are likely to open with a negative gap. The US markets closed with heavy losses and therefore the Asian markets have also opened with blood bath. The sentiments across the globe are bearish and that will definitely affect the domestic sentiments as well. The inflation numbers would barely affect the markets’ movements. One could witness strong sell off in today’s trading session that would keep the markets at low levels in the southward direction.

On Wednesday, the markets traded closed in green. The positive gap opening in morning session was backed by remarkable recovery witnessed in Asian markets that further bolstered the domestic markets till the end. Stocks like Reliance and Infosys also helped maintain positive sentiments across broader markets. All the sectors managed to close in green and sectors like Oil & Gas, IT, Teck, Realty and Metal were the forerunners with gains of 5.85%, 5.02%, 4.57%, 4.38% and 4.18% respectively. Sensex and Nifty gained 3.30% and 3.29% respectively. Mid caps and Small caps also gained by 1.90% and 1.26% respectively. During the session we expect the markets to be trading in deep red.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 299.13 points at 9,370.49 and NSE Nifty ended higher by 90.35 points at 2,835.30. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps ended with gains of 57.07 points and 43.34 points at 3,063.48 and 3,485.69 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 9,412.97 and intraday low of 9,202.57.

On Wednesday, the US markets closed in red. There was lack of buying in broader markets as the sentiments and expectations about the corporate profits are waning. Disappointing economic data also weighed on sentiment this session. Reports indicate that Deutsche Bank will post a fourth quarter loss further JPMorgan’s announcement also looms. On the other hand advance December retail sales dropped 2.7% month-over-month. Excluding autos, sales were down 3.1%. Crude oil futures for the month of February delivery fell by 50 cents to close at $37.28 per barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange. The crude futures touched as low as $35.54 per barrel. Crude prices came under pressure after the latest inventory data indicated a build of 1.14 billion barrels as compared to the expected 2.5 billion barrels. Though the build was less than expected, rising inventories continue pointing toward softer demand amid stiff economic headwinds.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed lower by 248.42 points at 8,200.14 NASDAQ index fell by 26.82 points at 1,489.64 and the S&P 500 (SPX) also closed lower by 29.17 points at 842.62.

Indian ADRs ended in red. In technology sector, Infosys went low by 3.54% and Wipro lost 7.14%. Further Patni Computers ended with a loss of 4.84% while Satyam closed down by 6.82%. In banking sector ICICI lost 3.17% along with HDFC Bank ended down by 5.39%. In telecommunication sector, Tata Communication lost 1.90%, and MTNL tumbled 2.27%. Sterlite Industries fell by 2.55%.

Today the major stock markets in Asia have opened with heavy blood bath. The Shanghai Composite is trading low by 22.20 points at 1,906.67 while Hang Seng is low by 743.60 points at 12,961.01. Further Japan''s Nikkei is trading low by 335.68 points at 8,102.77. South Korea’s Seoul Composite is low by 59.69 points at 1,122.99 and Singapore’s Strait Times is also low by 61.55 points at 1,703.17.

The FIIs on Wednesday stood as net sellers in equity and debt. Gross equity purchased stood at Rs 1640.00 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs 193.40 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs 1974.40 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs 276.40 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs (334.40) Crore and Rs (83.00) Crore respectively.

On Wednesday, Indian Rupee closed at 48.85/86 per dollar, 0.5% stronger than Tuesday’s close of 49.11/12. The rupee gained strength on the back of rebound in stock markets.

On BSE, total number of shares traded were 24.27 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs 2,818.60 Crore. On NSE, total number of shares traded were 57.56 Crore and total turnover was Rs 8,277.39 Crore.

Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – Unitech with 49788796 shares, Suzlon Energy with 20390272 shares, Reliance Comm with total volume traded 17102249 shares, SAIL with 10955314 shares followed by Reliance Power with 9092972 shares.

On NSE Future and Options, total number of contracts traded in index futures was 907863 with a total turnover of Rs 11,801.64 Crore. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 921382 with a total turnover of Rs 9,198.28 Crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 1028406 with a total turnover of Rs 14869.91 Crore and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 72152 and notional turnover was Rs 896.93 Crore.

Today, Nifty would have a support at 2,705 and resistance at 2,803 and BSE Sensex has support at 8,988 and resistance at 9,280.

Market seen opening weak on global cues; inflation data eyed

Key benchmark indices are likely to slump in opening trade weighed by weak global cues. Inflation data in the year to 3 January 2009 scheduled to be announced during the day and TCS Q3 December 2008 earnings will be closely watched.

India's largest software services exporter TCS will declare its Q3 December 2008 results today, 15 January 2009. Aggregate results for 54 companies showed 33.40% rise in net profit on a 44.80% increase in net sales in Q3 December 2008 over Q3 December 2007.

Asian markets were trading weak today, 15 December 2009, after Japanese machinery orders and US retail sales dropped. China's Shanghai Composite was down 0.53% or 10.13 points at 1,918.74, Hong Kong's Hang Seng plunged 4.24% or 580.72 points at 13,123.89, Japan's Nikkei tumbled 3.98% or 335.68 points at 8,102.77, Singapore's Straits Times declined 2.83% or 49.93 points at 1,714.79, South Korea's Seoul Composite fell 4.63% or 54.7 points at 1,127.98 and Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted slipped 4.01% or 181.13 points at 4,340.34.

North America's biggest telephone equipment maker, Nortel Networks Corporation, yesterday, 14 January 2009 filed for bankruptcy, hoping to save a once highflying business whose decade-long decline has accelerated with the global economic crisis. The filing marks a crucial stage in the slow deterioration of one of Canada's most prominent companies.

US markets plunged to six-week lows on Wednesday, 14 January 2009 on worries about deeper losses at banks worldwide and as US retail sales data pointed to a deepening recession. US retail sales dropped for a sixth month with a 2.7% slump in December 2008, the Commerce Department said. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 248.34 points, or 2.94%, to 8,200.22; while the S&P 500 slid 29.12 points, or 3.34%, to 842.67 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 56.82 points, or 3.67%, to 1,489.64.

Back home, key benchmark indices snapped four-day declining trend on Wednesday, 14 January 2009 on frenzied buying in index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) and IT pivotals. The BSE 30-share Sensex surged 299.13 points or 3.30% at 9370.49 and the S&P CNX Nifty gained 90.35 points or 3.29% at 2835.30.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers worth Rs 91.44 crore while mutual funds bought shares worth Rs 10.98 crore on Wednesday, 14 January 2009, according to provisional data on NSE.

Market may open low on weak global cues

The Indian stock market may open lower today tracking the pale Asian and US markets. Action today is likely to be stock-specific. The Asian indices like Nikkei 225, Hang Seng index, Kospi index and Straits Times index are down nearly 3-5% each in the ongoing trades. Among the local indices, the Nifty could test 2880 on the upside and may slip to 2800 on the downside. The Sensex has a likely support at 9240 and may face resistance at 9450.

US markets closed negative on Wednesday as a bleak retail sales report and more dour news from the banking sector amplified fears of a prolonged recession. With the Dow Jones registering its loss of 248 points at 8200, while the Nasdaq declining by 57 points to close at 1490.

Indian floats too followed the suit and ended weak on US bourses. Wipro tumbled 7.14% while Satyam, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank and Patni Computer fell 4-6% each. Infosys, ICICI Bank, MTNL, VSNL and Rediff lost over 1-3% each. Dr Reddy, however, gained 3.54%.

International crude oil prices moved down marginally, with the Nymex light crude oil for February delivery lost by 65 cents to close at $36.63 per barrel. In the commodity space, the Comex gold for February series declined $11.90 to settle at $808.80 a troy ounce.

Currency Forecast - Jan 15 2009

Currency Forecast - Jan 15 2009

Technical Trends - Jan 15 2009

Technical Trends - Jan 15 2009

Morning Note - Jan 15 2009

Morning Note - Jan 15 2009

Daily News Roundup - Jan 15 2009

Price Waterhouse has said its audit report for Satyam should not be relied upon. (BS)

Fitch has downgraded Unitech’s Rs44bn long-term debt to ‘B’ from ‘BBB’ earlier, and Rs12bn short-term debt and bank loans to ‘F4’ from ‘F3’. (BS)

Omaxe is in talks with five banks for rescheduling about Rs2bn debt which is to be repaid by March 2009. (BS)

Reliance Industries told that the company had not signed an MoU with RNRL for gas supply but with Reliance Energy and for the Dadri power project. (BS)

Unitech is in talks with banks to raise an estimated Rs9bn loan over the next few days. (FE)

Qatar will consider picking up 10% stake in Petronet LNG. (BS)

HDFC to cut rate on new deposits by around 0.5 percentage points. (ET)

DS Kulkarni Developers Ltd's proposed multi-service SEZ at Phursungi has received approval from the Board of Approvals of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. (BS)

Reliance Capital has got the regulatory approval to set up a housing finance company and a non-banking finance company. (BS)

TCS, Wipro, Infosys, Sasken may feel the heat as Nortel files for bankruptcy protection. (BS)

Maytas Infra may sell assets to raise funds. (ET)

Siemens has announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Siemens Information Systems will be transferred to the parent, Siemens AG in a deal worth Rs4.49bn. (ET)

Domestic steel majors Ispat, Essar and JSW Steel have resumed full-scale production to meet rising demand. (ET)

FMP’s have invested a mammoth Rs15bn in Unitech. (ET)

Pantaloon Retail sales dropped by 4% in December, its first fall in four years. (BS)

JSW Group not to cancel Rs1bn order given to Maytas Infra. (FE)

Raiffeisen selects Infosys banking software Finacle for standardizing and consolidating the technology platform of Raiffeisen International. (FE)

Coal India Limited expects to open tenders for development of its underground mines by early February. (BS)

Raymond set to open 100 outlets under its new chain Neckties & More. (ET)


The government has allowed 100% FDI in facsimile editions of foreign newspapers. (BS)

Planning Commission is likely to unveil new incentivised schemes for the real estate sector to provide affordable housing. (ET)

Trai says that companies offering VAS can continue to operate without license. (ET)

Uttar Pradesh is planning to privatize or completely sell off 33 state-owned sugar mills. (FE)

Dial R for rumour!

A groundless rumour often covers a lot of ground.

The R-related rally witnessed on Wednesday is set to fizzle out today. One reason is that RIL has already denied rumours of an out-of-court-settlement with RNRL on the raging gas row. A raft of bad news from across the globe will also serve as a grim reminder that the worst may still not be over. The macro-economic picture too remains murky. Though inflation is expected to fall further, it is more due to demand destruction in a slowing economy.

So, one should not rejoice if the RBI lowers key policy rates or the Government takes fresh steps to pump-prime the economy. Recent history has shown that these measures only perk up the sentiment for a while. The mood turns glum after a brief relief rally as the headwinds confronting the market remain very much in place.

Worries about the financial health of top global banks like Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Bank of America and JP Morgan have increased. There is no dearth of news on job cuts by corporates. The Fed’s Beige Book survey shows persistent weakness in the US.

Telecom equipment vendor Nortel Networks has filed for bankruptcy. Nortel is a client for Wipro, Infosys and TCS. While earnings risk remain, the impact will be limited as Nortel is known to be under pressure for sometime and growth expectations were anyways muted.

Deutsche Bank has warned of a massive Q4 loss. Citi is merging its broking arm with Morgan Stanley and may break itself up further. Reports say that Bank of America and HSBC are in dire need of more funds. JP Morgan is likely to report a loss as well.

Motorola is cutting 4,000 more jobs. Even Google, which usually is seen as a strong outfit, is cutting jobs to fight off the challenging times.

Sales at US retailers fell more than twice as much as forecast in December. Today, the European Central Bank is likely to cut interest rates by a further 50 basis points to 2%.

We expect the market to fall today in the face of weak global sentiment and nervousness about corporate earnings. US stocks were down 3-4% overnight, while the main European indices fell even more sharply, by 4.5-5%. This morning, the major Asian markets are down 4-4.5%.

Key Results Today: Bajaj Finserve, Bongaigaon Refinery, GTL, Hind Oil Exploration, Infotech Enterprise, JK Lakshmi Cement, IndusInd Bank, PFC, Rallis India and TCS.

US stocks slumped on Wednesday, as a disappointing retail sales data and a string of bad news on the banking sector heightened concerns over a deep and protracted global recession.

The depth of the recession could be seen in recent economic data as well. This week's reports on trade balance, retail sales and import prices makes one realize how deeply mired the US economy is in a recession.

US stocks have slipped through much of the first two weeks of the year as worse-than-expected economic and corporate news has caused investors to question the year-end rally.

Investors were reacting on Wednesday to the latest weakness in the global banking sector. Deutsche Bank reported a huge quarterly loss, HSBC and Bank of America may need to raise billions in new capital and JPMorgan Chase could report weak results.

Investors also took a sour view of news that Citigroup is selling a majority stake in its brokerage unit to Morgan Stanley, a move that would seem to indicate the beginning of the break-up of the troubled banking firm.

The CBOE Volatility index, or the VIX, has been rising over the last few sessions, suggesting investors are getting more jittery. The VIX jumped 13% to 49.14 in Wednesday trading. However, the VIX remains well below historic highs near 90, which it hit in November when the stock market bottomed.

Retail sales slumped 2.7% in December, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday morning. That was more than twice what economists were forecasting, as the recession took its toll on consumer spending in the critical holiday sales period. Sales fell 2.1% in the previous month. Sales, excluding volatile autos fell 3.1% versus forecasts for a drop of 1.4%. Sales excluding autos fell 2.5% in November.

Meanwhile, the retail industry's leading trade group said 2008 holiday sales fell 2.8% versus a year earlier, due to the recession and fewer shopping days. That surpassed the initial forecast for a drop of 2.2% in the combined November-December period.

In other retail sector news, regional department store chain Gottschalks has filed for bankruptcy protection. Clothing chain Goody's said it will liquidate its remaining 282 stores.

Investors got another dose of bad news with the afternoon release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book reading on the economy. The Beige Book showed erosion over the last six weeks in nearly all of the nation's 12 districts.

Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.20% from 2.29% on Tuesday. Yields on the 2-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasurys all hit record lows last month.

Lending rates improved. The 3-month Libor rate fell to 1.08% from 1.09% Tuesday, according to the British Banker's Association, marking a 5-1/2 year low. Overnight Libor held steady at 0.10%, a record low. Libor is a key bank lending rate.

US light crude oil for February delivery fell 50 cents to settle at $37.28 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, erasing earlier losses following the release of the government's weekly oil inventories report.

The dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the yen. COMEX gold for February delivery fell $11.90 to settle at $808.80 an ounce.

Gasoline prices rose two-tenths of a cent to a national average of $1.792 a gallon.

Motorola is also likely to be active on Thursday. The telecom said after the close that it will cut 4,000 jobs on top of the 3,000 job cuts it already announced in late 2008.

Germany's Deutsche Bank said it would post a steep fourth-quarter loss Wednesday of $6.4 billion. Morgan Stanley said that HSBC, Europe's largest bank, will probably need to cut its dividend in half and may need to raise up to $30 billion in capital.

In other company news, Nortel Networks, North America's largest telecom gear maker, filed for bankruptcy protection.

After the close, Apple CEO Steve Jobs said he is taking a medical leave through the end of the second quarter because his health-related issues are more complex than he thought. Shares tumbled 10% in after-hours trading after having been halted for the first hour of the extended session.

Thursday brings the weekly jobless claims report, two regional manufacturing reports and the producer price index (PPI) - a measure of wholesale inflation. JP Morgan Chase will report its results on Thursday. In an interview with the Financial Times, the company's chief executive Jamie Dimon said the US economy and the financial sector will worsen this year.

European shares fell back to levels last seen in 2008 on Wednesday. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index lost 4.4% to 192.87, the biggest one-day drop for the index this year. With this latest pullback, tentative gains made in the first sessions of 2009 have been wiped out.

The UK's FTSE 100 index closed down 5% at 4,180.64, while Germany's DAX 30 index dropped 4.4% to 4,422.35 and the French CAC-40 index skidded 4.6% to 3,052.00.

Markets bounced back on Wednesday snapping a four day losing streak. Buying was witnessed all over with the oil & gas, telecom and IT stocks among the major gainers. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries and the other ADAG stocks joined in the rally towards the end lifting the NSE Nifty index to close above the 2,800 mark.

Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex ended at 9,370 surging 299 points and the NSE Nifty index advanced 90 points to close at 2,835.

All the BSE Sectoral indices ended in the positive terrain. BSE Oil & Gas index (up 7%), BSE IT index (up 5.1%), BSE Teck index (up 5%), BSE Metal index (up 4.5%), BSE Power index (up 4%) and BSE Pharma index (up 2.3%)

Even BSE Mid-cap index advanced 2.1% and BSE Small-Cap index gained 1.4%.

Market breath was positive, 1,398 stocks advanced against 984 declines, while, 100 stocks remained unchanged.

Shares of Reliance Industries rallied by over 9% to Rs1178 after the company’s promoters hiked their stake to over 49% as of the December quarter this financial year.

The promoters purchased 120mn shares or over 4% stake in the company during the period between September and December 2008. The promoters of Reliance Industries hold 49.03% stake in the company against a 44.80% stake.

Shares of Jet Airways and kingfisher Airlines surged after reports stated that government is considering a proposal to allow overseas airlines to own stakes in local carriers.

Jet Airways surged by over 7% to Rs153 and Kingfisher Airlines advanced by 6% to Rs35.4.

Shares of Infosys further surged by over 6% to Rs1304 after the company announced that it is currently negotiating about 10 contracts worth more than US$50mn each.

The company has announced its quarterly results on January 13, 2009 it reported a consolidated net profit of Rs16.41bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2008, versus Rs14.32bn in the previous quarter. This translates into a sequential growth of 14.59%.

The net profit for Q3 FY09 and Q3 FY08 includes a net tax reversal pertaining to earlier periods amounting to Rs620mn and Rs500mn, respectively. The year-on-year growth in net profit is at 33.3%. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1313 and a low of Rs1230 and recorded volumes of over 8,00,000 shares on BSE.

Shares of NTPC gained by 2% to Rs171 after the company announced that it approved plans to spend Rs60bn on building thermal power plants. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs175 and a low of Rs166 and recorded volumes of over 9,00,000 shares on BSE.

GTL Infrastructure advanced by half a percent. The company announced its quarterly results. The company posted a net loss of Rs14.033mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 as compared to net loss of Rs160.082mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.

Total Income has increased from Rs450.844mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 to Rs754.737mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2008.

Cairn India

We recommend a sell in Cairn India stock from short-term trading perspective. It is clearly visible from the charts of Cairn India that it has been on a long-term downtrend from its May 2008 high of Rs 342 (its 52-week high).

However, the stock bounced back, after finding support at Rs 88 in late October. The stock was on a corrective medium-term up move till it encountered twin resistance around Rs 180 (a significant resistance level and the long-term down trendline).

Recently, the counter began to decline, resuming its long-term downtrend. On January 13, the stock tumbled by 7 per cent decisively penetrating its corrective medium-term up trendline. The daily relative strength index is falling in the neutral region towards the bearish zone. Moreover, the daily moving average convergence and divergence is signalling a sell.

Our short-term forecast for the stock is bearish. We expect the stock to decline further until it hits our price target of Rs 137. Traders with short-term perspective can sell the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 161.

via BL