Dead Presidents! - India Equity Research

Friday, October 24, 2008

My Portfolio - Oct 24 2008

The Last Entry is ofcourse the Overall % down

The change today is the averaging of one of the stocks (32.86% down)

See Yesterday's Portfolio

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Oct 24 2008

Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
24/10/2008 531683 ANKU DR PH MERRILL LYNCH CAPITAL MARKETS ESPANA S.A. S.V. B 1155222 120.62
24/10/2008 531683 ANKU DR PH DEUTSCHE SECURITIES MAURITIUS LIMITED S 105000 119.59
24/10/2008 531683 ANKU DR PH ABN AMRO BANK N.V LONDON S 221009 115.00
24/10/2008 530355 ASIAN OILFIE AVINASHCMANCHANDA B 108665 50.06
24/10/2008 530355 ASIAN OILFIE PR VYAPAAR PRIVATE LIMITED S 100000 50.05
24/10/2008 532668 AURIONPRO SO MORGAN STANLEY MAURITIUS COMPANY LIMITED B 283227 145.00
24/10/2008 533016 AUSTRAL COKE AAP INVESTMENTS S 175000 68.14
24/10/2008 505506 AXON INFOTEC ARYAVRAT FINANCIAL SERVICES LTD S 15570 9.12
24/10/2008 533026 CHEMCEL NEW PLANET TRADING CO PVT LTD S 330923 2.95
24/10/2008 526727 GARNET CONST JAYSHREE JHAMATMAL PARIYANI B 51519 17.00
24/10/2008 500160 GTL LIMITED MORGAN STANLEY AND CO INT LTD AC DEAN WITTER M S 684000 175.82
24/10/2008 500106 IFCI LTD FID FUND MAURITIUS LTD S 3957322 17.67
24/10/2008 590077 RANKLIN SOLU ARCADIA SHARE AND STOCK BROKERS P L B 30000 51.05
24/10/2008 526723 RDB INDUST L CNI RESEARCH LTD B 55876 42.50
24/10/2008 526407 RIT PRO IND SHREE ATAM VALLABH POLY PLSTI S 63478 50.14
24/10/2008 531215 RTS POWER CO HETAL RAJESH PATEL S 65071 124.99
24/10/2008 519228 TEMPT.FOODS COPTHALL MAURITIUS INVESTMENT LIMITED B 1000000 194.00
24/10/2008 519228 TEMPT.FOODS MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED S 999815 194.00
24/10/2008 513216 UTTAM GALVA PANKAJ RAJKUMAR SUREKA S 1060000 42.48

Post Session Commentary - Oct 24 2008

The Indian market lost more than 10% to its lowest since November 2005 on growing worries about a sharp global economic slowdown. Investors’ sentiment was also dented after the central bank kept interest rates unchanged at its policy review and lowered its economic growth forecast. Market witnessed one of the worst trading sessions as BSE Sensex ended around 8,700 level and NSE Nifty below 2,600 mark. Domestic market opened sharply lower on huge sell-off in Asian markets. Asian stocks were under pressure for third straight day as the global economic slowdown slashed earnings prospects for many companies. Further market continued to see free fall and moved down side on sustained selling pressure. Weak European markets also fueled to the depressing sentiment. Bears did not leave any option for the market to come back and finally got distorted badly. From the sectoral front, all indices ended in red and among those, Reality index was worst performer as it ended with a deep cut of more than 24%. Besides, Oil & Gas, Bank, Metal, Capital Goods, Pharma and Auto stocks also took huge beating on the bourses.

Among the Sensex pack all 30 stocks ended in red terrain. The market breadth was extremely negative as 2322 stocks closed in red while 260 stocks closed in green and 46 stocks remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex closed lower by 1,070.63 points at 8,701.07 and NSE Nifty ended down by 359.10 points at 2,584.00. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with losses of 283.04 points 3,095.68 and by 303.87 points at 3,661.83. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 9,570.71 and intraday low of 8,566.82.

Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are DLF Ltd (23.96%), Ranbaxy Lab (17.83%), Hindalco (17.82%), Tata Motors (16.54%), Reliance (16.44 %), M&M Ltd (16.04%), Reliance Communication Ltd (15.93%), ICICI Bank (15.20%), ONGC Ltd (15.01%), Sterlite Industries (14.94%), Reliance Infra (14.88%) and Tata Steel (14.46%).

The RBI kept its key lending rate stable at 8% and cash reserve ration unchanged at 6.5%. Along with this the RBI lowered its 2008/09 growth forecast to 7.5% from a previous forecast of around 8.0%.

The BSE Oil & Gas index plunged 906.64 points to close at 5,151.64. Major losers are Essar Oil Ltd (19.32%), Cairn India (18.52%), Reliance (16.44 %), Aban Offshore (15.84%), ONGC Ltd (15.01%) and Reliance Reliance Petroleum (14.09%).

The Bank index lost 671.27 points to close at 4,649.87 as Kotak Bank (20.72%), Oriental Bank (16.72%), ICICI Bank (15.20%), SBI (4.84%), Axis Bank (14.13%) and Yes Bank (13.52%) in negative territory.

The BSE Capital Goods index plunged 633.97 points to close at 6,610.89 as Suzlon Energy (39.23%), Jyoti struct (19.90%), ABB Ltd (16.76%), Havell’s India (14.11%) and Walchand Industries (13.55%) ended in negative territory.

The BSE Metal index went down by 603.04 points to close at 4,393.88. Major losers are Nalco (22.59%), Hindalco (17.82%), Welspan Guajrat Sr (16.02%), Sterlite Industries (14.94%), Tata Steel (14.46%) and JSW Steel (10.95%).

The BSE Auto index ended down by 288.83 points at 2,480.96. Losers are Tata Motors (16.54%), M&M Ltd (16.04%), Bharat Forge (14.51%), Amtek Auto (12.42%), Bajaj Auto (12.26%) and Ashok Leyland (11.53%).

The BSE Pharma index closed lower by 252.97 points at 2,811.47. Losers are Glenmark Pharma (19.99%), Ranbaxy Lab (17.83%), Matrix Lab (15.51%), Orchid Chem (13.07%), Cipla Ltd (11.68%) and Opto Circuit (9.89%).

Market mauled in global rout in equities, disappointment from RBI

n a carnage in late trade the domestic bourses fell to their lowest level in nearly three years, joining a global equities rout on worries about a sharp global economic slowdown. Sensex provisionally lost 1131.82 points or 11.58%. The sell-off on the domestic bourses began in mid-morning trade as the second quarter monetary policy review by the central bank disappointed the market.

Uncertainty on the final order with regard to short sales, also weighed on the bourses. Twenty stocks from the 30-share Sensex pack fell more than 10% each with DLF, Ranbaxy Laboratories and Hindalco Industries leading the fall. Reliance Industries (RIL) tumbled as net profit in Q2 September 2008 rose at the slowest pace in the past 10 quarters.

Banking stocks slumped as the central bank did not announce any measures to boost liquidity at the policy review announced at about 11:15 IST. Other rate sensitive stocks also fell on disappointment from the policy review. The Reseve Bank of India (RBI) kept all the key rates unchanged even as it lowered its 2008/09 growth forecast to 7.5% to 8% from a previous forecast of around 8%. The RBI also left the cash reserve ratio, the amount of funds that banks have to keep on deposit with it, unchanged at 6.5%.

European shares tumbled on data suggesting Britain would enter a prolonged recession and on dismal corporate results. Key benchmark indices in France, Germany and UK were down by between 8.1% to 9.79%. Trading in US index futures suggested the Dow would fall 550 points at the opening bell.

In Asia, Japanese and South Korean stocks, which were down by 7.37% and 9.94% respectively, led fall, as the global economic slowdown slashed earnings prospects for an array of companies, forcing investors to look to safer government bonds. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, China, Singapore and Taiwan were down by 1.27% to 4.84%.

Back home, there is uncertainty as to what steps the market regulator will take regarding short sales. Despite announcing its displeasure on overseas lending by foreign funds early this, the Securities & Exchange Board has not yet taken any concrete decision in this regard.

As per the provisional figures, the BSE 30-share Sensex was down 1131.82 points or 11.58% to 8,639.88. The Sensex fell 1204.88 points at day’s low of 8,566.82 in late trade, its lowest level since 23 November 2005. The index declined 200.99 points at the day's high of 9.570.71 in early trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty was down 385.90 points or 13.11% to 2,557.25 as per the provisional figures. Nifty hit a low of 2,525.05 in late trade its lowest level since 11 November 2005.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was down 8.64% at 3,086.96 and The BSE Small-Cap index was down 7.88% at 3,653.36. Both the indices outperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth was weak. On BSE, 267 shares advanced as compared to 2312 that declined. 48 shares remained unchanged.

India’s largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries plunged 16.89% to Rs 1,010 as net profit in Q2 September 2008 rose at the slowest pace in the past 10 quarters, largely due to fall in refining margins. The net profit rose 7.4% to Rs 4122 crore on 39.8% growth in sales to Rs 44787 crore in Q2 September 2008 over Q2 September 2007. The company announced the result after market hours on 23 October 2008.

Ranbaxy Laboratories (down 17.48% to Rs 189.75), Mahindra & Mahindra (down 19.37% to Rs 276), Reliance Infrastructure (down 16.99% to Rs 372), were the other major losers from the Sensex pack.

India’s largest power producer by sales NTPC fell 9.73% despite 9.6% rise in net profit to Rs 2110.51 crore on 18.9% rise in total income to Rs 10406.21 crore in Q2 September 2008 over Q2 September 2007.

India’s largest electric equipment maker by sales Bharat Heavy Electricals fell 7.31% as net profit declined 10.4% to Rs 615.77 crore on 34.7% rise in net sales to Rs 5342.63 crore in Q2 September 2008 over Q2 September 2007.

Banking stocks tanked as the central bank did not announce any measures to boost liquidity at the policy review announced at about 11:15 IST. BSE Bankex fell 12.68%. State Bank of India and HDFC Bank fell between 8.68% to 15.28%.

India’s largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank fell 14.38%, even as its American depository receipt (ADR) rose 2% overnight. The bank has reportedly raised its home loan rates by 100 basis points for new borrowers. The bank raised it floating rates from 12% to 13%, with the fixed rate being raised to 16.5% from 10 October 2008.

ICICI Bank, State Bank of India and HDFC Bank have a weightage of 24.21%, 22.44% and 20.55%, respectively, in the Bankex.

The RBI had cut repo rate by steep 100 basis points early this week. The repo rate is the rate at which the RBI provides funds to banks against the collateral of government bonds for a day to three days.

Most realty stocks declined despite hopes cut in lending rates will spur demand for residential properties. The BSE Realty index battered 24.96% and was the major loser from the sectoral indices on BSE.. Realty majors, DLF, Indiabulls Real Estate and Unitech fell by between 13.1% to 56.63%.

Metal stocks extended recent losses on slump in metal prices on the London Metal Exchange. The BSE Metal index was down 12.37% Hindustan Zinc, National Aluminum Company, Sterlite Industries Steel Authority of India fell by between 10.59% to 22.59%.

Concerns that the global economy will slide into recession rattled commodities markets on Thursday, 23 October 2008.

India’s largest steel maker by sales Tata Steel slumped 14.46%, extending losses for the third day in a row, despite a 50.13% rise in net profit to Rs 1787.81 crore on 40.9% rise in net sales to Rs 6744.16 crore in Q2 September 2008 over Q2 September 2007. The company announced the results during trading hours today. The stock had tumbled in the last two days after Moody's Investors Service on 22 October 2008 lowered outlook on corporate family rating to negative from stable due to weak operating enviourment at its UK unit.

JSW Steel tumbled 10.28% as net profit slumped 40.57% to Rs 317.45 crore in Q2 September 2008 over Q2 September 2007.

India’s largest car maker by sales Maruti Suzuki India slumped 9.87% on 36.5% fall in net profit to Rs 296.1 crore on 5.69% rise in net sales to Rs 4806.3 crore in Q2 September 2008 over Q2 September 2007.

FMCG stocks fell after mixed September 2008 quarter results. India’s largest cigarette maker by sales ITC fell 5.66% on a muted 4.13% rise in net profit to Rs 802.72 crore on 14.2% rise in total income to Rs 3973.12 crore in Q2 September 2008 over Q2 September 2007.

India’s largest FMCG major by sales Hindustan Unilever fell 7.56% despite a 33.9% rise in net profit to Rs 546.61 crore on 21.08% rise in total income to Rs 4110.91 crore in Q3 September 2008 over Q3 September 2007.

Finance minister P Chidambaram on Thursday, 23 October 2008, the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has asked foreign institutional investors (FIIs) to reverse short positions on borrowed shares. After trading hours Thursday, 23 October 2008, a finance ministry official clarified that only those transactions of foreign funds in which shares were lent after 20 October 2008 will have to be reversed.

Daily call - Oct 24 2008

Corporate results that have come in so far don’t rock, but they could rock the Sensex boat as Asian markets continue to weaken despite a last hour fight back in the Dow Thursday night. Appreciating Yen is worrying Japan , which is now at its highest level in 5 years against the dollar. OPEC meets today to discuss on a production cut. While Iran and Venezuela are as usual rooting for a cut of 2 million barrels per day, Saudi Arabia may settle for a cut of 0.75 million to 1 million, which may not be sufficient for a rally in crude.

Now that we have comfortable closed below the 10,000 mark, I don’t see the Sensex in any hurry to trek back to higher altitudes. The talk of imploding hedge funds and several weak governments in trouble prohibits us from putting on our rosy glasses. Reliance Results were also tepid. Continue to be on the sidelines.

Morning Note - Oct 24 2008

Daily Market Outlook - Oct 24 2008

Daily Tech - Oct 24 2008

Gold continues to drop but silver rises marginally

Gold price drops below $700 for first time in thirteen months

Gold prices continued to drop on Thursday, 23 October, 2008. Gold prices slipped to lowest levels in thirteen months as it fell below $700 level today. A strong dollar was the main reason behind this. Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies. Losses in equity markets also forced traders to sell gold today. Since past couple of weeks, precious metals, mainly gold, had dropped as traders tried to gain back some of the money that had lost in other markets. Silver prices gained marginally today.

On Thursday, Comex Gold for December delivery fell $20.5 (2.8%) to close at $714.7 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices fell to a low of $695.5 earlier during the day. On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped significantly since then. Last week, gold prices ended lower by 8.3%.

This year, gold prices have lost 15.5% till date. The dollar index has gained 10.5% this year. For the third quarter ended September, 2008, gold prices ended lower by 5.1%. It was the first quarterly loss for the yellow metal since the second quarter in FY 2007. Prior to that, the yellow metal ended second quarter with a marginal gain of 0.7%. For first quarter prices gained 10.7%.

On Thursday, Comex silver futures for December delivery rose 4 cents (0.4%) to $9.5 an ounce. Last week, silver coughed up 12%. Till date, silver has lost 36.6% this year. Silver had ended month and quarter of September 2008 with a loss of 10%. For the second quarter, it had gained a paltry 1.4%. Silver had gained 16% in Q1. The metal also had gained for seven straight years.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies. On the other hand, a lower dollar pushes up precious metal prices as their demand lessens as it becomes cheaper for traders holding other currencies. Gold has traditionally been used as a safe-haven asset against rising inflation. Investor sentiments are boosted by the fact that gold and silver are alternate sources of good investment in the face of declining dollar and rising energy prices and vice versa.

In the currency market on Thursday, the dollar slipped against major rivals as foreign exchange markets took their cue from volatile equities trading and rising risk appetite as U.S. blue chips managed to end a whipsaw session higher. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 85.056, down from 85.602 in late Wednesday.

In the crude market on Wednesday, crude prices fell by more than $5 and closed just above $66/barrel. EIA reported today that crude stockpiles for the week ended 17 October, 2008 rose 3.2 million barrels, which was larger than the expected increase of 2.7 million barrels. Gasoline stockpiles rose by 2.7 million barrels.

Earlier this year, the weakening dollar and higher global demand for raw materials had led to records this year for commodities including gold. Gold reached a record in March as a U.S. housing slump and credit crisis spurred the Federal Reserve to slash borrowing costs. The Federal Reserve halted cuts to its target bank lending rate in April, after slicing it in seven steps to 1.5% currently from 5.25% in September, 2007.

Gold had witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. Silver had climbed 16% in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

At the MCX, gold prices for December delivery closed lower by Rs 168 (1.4%) at Rs 11,716 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 11,936 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 11,432 per 10 grams during the day’s trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for December delivery closed Rs 15 (0.08%) higher at Rs 17,169/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 17,101/kg and rose to a high of Rs 17,549/Kg during the day’s trading.

Crude climbs up

OPEC strongly hints at a production cut at tomorrow’s meeting at Vienna

Crude prices rose today, Thursday, 23 October, 2008 and closed at the $68/barrel level as OPEC clearly hinted at a production cut. Last week, OPEC had cut its 2009 demand forecast because of ``dramatically worsening'' conditions in financial markets.

Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for December delivery closed at $67.84/barrel (higher by $1.09 or 1.6%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices earlier touched a low of $65.9. Prices reached a high of $147 on 11 July but have dropped almost 53% since then. Last week, prices dropped by 7.5%. On a yearly basis, crude price is lower by 20%. For this year in 2008, crude prices have dropped 32%.

OPEC officials today clearly hinted that OPEC might pare production by 1 million to 2 million barrels a day in stages at tomorrow’s meeting at Vienna to stabilize prices.

The 13 members of OPEC, are expected to cut their oil production quotas in a bid to boost oil prices.

Brent crude oil for December settlement rose $1.40 (2.2%) to settle at $65.92 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.

EIA reported yesterday that crude supplies rose for a fourth week, up 3.2 million barrels for the week ended 17 October, 2008 to stand at 311.4 million. They're up a total of 21.2 million barrels in four weeks. EIA had also reported that motor gasoline supplies also climbed 2.7 million barrels to 196.5 million barrels. They're up 17.8 million barrels in four weeks. And distillate stocks rose for the first time in eight weeks, up 2.2 million barrels to 124.3 million.

The EIA report also showed yesterday that U.S. fuel demand during the past four weeks was down 8.5% from a year ago. The US consumes about one fourth of the total global oil production. Demand for petroleum products over the last four-week period averaged 18.7 million barrels per day.

In the currency market on Thursday, the dollar slipped against major rivals as foreign exchange markets took their cue from volatile equities trading and rising risk appetite as U.S. blue chips managed to end a whipsaw session higher. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 85.056, down from 85.602 in late Wednesday.

In the latest monthly prediction, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said last week that global oil consumption will grow 550,000 barrels a day this year compared with a year ago, down 330,000 barrels from last month's forecast. Total consumption will stand at 86.5 million barrels a day. For the next year, demand will grow 800,000 barrels a day, down 100,000 barrels from OPEC's September prediction.

The Energy Information Administration, the statistics arm of the U.S. Energy Department, also lowered its growth outlook for this year's global oil consumption by 350,000 barrels from a month ago last week.

For the third quarter of the year crude prices ended lower by 28%. This was the biggest quarterly drop since 1991. Before that, crude prices had gained 38% in the second quarter of this year. It was the biggest quarterly increase in nine years. For the month of September, prices registered drop of 13%.

Against this background, November reformulated gasoline closed at $1.5778 a gallon, up 0.7 cent, while November heating oil fell by 0.7 cent to end at $2.0297 a gallon.

Prices for natural gas fell more than 5% after a U.S. government report showed that supplies of the commodity remained above the five-year average. EIA reported today that supplies of natural gas in storage rose 70 billion cubic feet for the week ended 17 October. November natural-gas futures fell 35.8 cents, or 5.3%, to close $6.419 per million British thermal units.

At the MCX, crude oil for November delivery closed at Rs 3,484/barrel, higher by Rs 90 (2.6%) against previous day’s close. Natural gas for November delivery closed at Rs 333.9/mmbtu, lower by Rs 15.6/mmbtu (4.5%).

Market may drift lower on weak Asian stocks

The market may edge lower at the opening bell on continued slide in Asian stocks caused by global recession worries which had caused a sharp slide on the domestic bourses in the past few days. Volatility may continue due to uncertainty on the final order with regard to short sales. RBI’s monetary policy announcement due at 12:00 IST will be in focus. Reliance Industries (RIL) may recover on better-than-expected Q2 September 2008 results unveiled after trading hours on Thursday, 23 October 2008.

The market sentiment remains edgy due to sustained selling by foreign funds. FIIs have pulled out Rs 48527.90 crore from Indian stocks in 2008, so far. The Indian rupee opened trade at a record low of 50.15 per dollar today, weighed down by heavy losses in Asian stocks which raised worries of more outflows from the local share market.

Japanese and South Korean stocks, which were down by 7% and 7.8% respectively, led fall in Asian stocks, as the global economic slowdown slashed earnings prospects for an array of companies, forcing investors to look to safer government bonds. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, China, Singapore and Taiwan were down by 0.5% to 4.3%.

The slide in Asian stocks was despite recovery in US stocks overnight which was led by a bounce in energy and health-care stocks on rebound in oil from a 16-month trough and reassuring earnings from top pharmaceutical companies. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 172.04 points, or 2.02%, to 8,691.25, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 11.33 points, or 1.26%, to 908.11. The Nasdaq Composite Index, however, was down 11.84 points, or 0.73%, at 1,603.91.

After trading hours on a finance ministry official that only those transactions of foreign funds in which shares were lent after 20 October 2008 will have to be reversed. Finance minister P Chidambaram’s comments during trading hours that the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has asked foreign institutional investors (FIIs) to reverse short positions on borrowed shares had triggered strong intraday rebound on the bourses on Thursday, 23 October 2008.

Early this week, Sebi had disapproved overseas lending of shares by foreign funds after data showed that FIIs had lent equities worth Rs 348 crore to overseas entities for the purpose of short selling, during 10 October-14 October 2008. The data had later showed that their FIIs had lent equities worth Rs 1000 crore between 10 October-17 October 2008.

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The central RBI may announce more measures to boost liquidity though a further cut in rates after a steep 100 basis points in repo rate cut early this week, appears unlikely. The repo rate is the rate at which the RBI provides funds to banks against the collateral of government bonds for a day to three days.

Light, sweet crude rose $1.09 to settle at $67.84 on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday, 23 October 2008. The contract had tumbled to a 16-month low on Wednesday, 22 October 2008, as an increase in US crude and gasoline stocks fed beliefs that weakness in the economy is eroding demand for energy.

Pre Session Commentary - Oct 24 2008

Today Markets are likely to open negative as Asian markets have opened with a blood bath despite mixed close of the US markets. The domestic investors are skeptic about the present economic scenario and the carnage happening across the world. RBI is set to come up with its Credit Policy today. On the other hand SEBI is stringent with the FIIs about the short selling and winding up of positions in the market so as to give the markets a little stability. Inflation numbers are good as it has fallen by 37bps. Inflation for the week ended 11th October 2008, stood at 11.07% as against to 11.44% of the previous week.

On Thursday, domestic Markets lost 398.20 points as it opened with a huge negative gap. The carnage was basically fuelled by the falling Asian and European markets. Metal was the worst hit as the metal prices are falling across the world on the back of skepticism about economic growth. The investors were little cautious about their positions before the Credit Policy to be announced today. Metal, Auto, Oil & Gas and Realty witnessed heavy selling pressures and fell by 11.08%, 7.21%, 5.30% and 5.26% respectively. In the metal index Tata Steel and SAIL plummeted heavily by 14.85% and 14.39% respectively. During the trading session we expect the market to be trading volatile.

The BSE Sensex closed lower by 398.20 points at 9,771.70 and NSE Nifty ended down by 122 points at 2,943.15. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with losses of 111.67 points 3,378.72 and by 145.99 points at 3,965.70. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 10,260.55 and intraday low of 9,681.28.

On Thursday, US markets closed mixed amidst concerns over the jobless claims and also the better than expected quarterly results. Despite good quarterly numbers the investors are pessimistic about the outlook of these companies. On the other hand jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 18 rose 15,000 to 478,000, surpassing 468,000 claims that were expected. Crude oil futures for the December delivery gained $1.09 to $67.84 a barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange. The surge in the oil prices was expected as the traders are anticipating a production cut from OPEC which is meeting today to discuss the production and price issues.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed with a gain of 172.04 points at 8,691.25. NASDAQ index lost 11.84 points at 1,603.91 and the S&P 500 (SPX) gained 11.33 points to close at 908.11 points.

Indian ADRs ended mixed. In technology sector, Wipro slipped (4.13%) and Satyam lost by (0.14%) while Infosys ended up by (1.97%) and Patni Computers closing higher by (0.73%). In banking sector HDFC Bank was up by (4.20%) and ICICI Bank gained (1.91%). In telecommunication sector, Tata Communication inclined by (10.08%), and MTNL was up by (8.97%). Sterlite Industries was down by (2.23%).

Today the major stock markets in Asia opened mixed. The Shanghai Composite is trading high by 11.66 points, at 1,887.22. Hang Seng is low by 288.23 points at 13,472.26. Further Japan''s Nikkei is low by 400.90 points at 8,060.08. Straits Times is trading is also trading low by 53.05 points at 1,692.62 and South Korea’s Seoul Composite is low by 46.51 points at 1,003.2.

The FIIs on Thursday stood as net seller in equity and net buyer in debt. Gross equity purchased stood at Rs1724.60 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs537.30 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs1997.50 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs422.80 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were (Rs272.90 Crore) and Rs144.60 Crore respectively.

On Thursday, the partially convertible rupee ended at 49.81/82 per dollar, 1.1% weaker than Wednesday''s close of 49.28/29, but off the days’ low of 49.86. The rupee hit to record low on another sharp drop in the stock market and broad-based dollar strength.

On BSE, total number of shares traded was Rs. 23.88 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs. 3,754.82 Crore. On NSE, total volume of shares traded was Rs. 52.20 Crore and total turnover was Rs 10,552.58 Crore.

Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – Reliance Petro with total traded volume of 31876780 shares, followed by Idea Celluar with 17421399 shares, ICICI Bank with 15491109 shares, Unitech with 15377250 shares and SAIL with 11210202 shares respectively.

On NSE Future and Options, total numbers of contracts traded in index futures were 1396009 with a total turnover of Rs 19,814.7 Crore. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 1170735 with a total turnover of Rs 13,533.26 Crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 1226867 and total turnover was Rs 19,670.69 Crore and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 44994 and notional turnover was Rs 606.3 Crore.

Today, Nifty would have a support at 2,865 and resistance at 3,015 and BSE Sensex has support at 9,495 and resistance at 10,105.

South-bound journey may continue

Asian indices are also currently fell over 3-5% in the ongoing trades. FII's remaining net sellers in equities is likely to exert more pressure on the local metal stocks. Among the key domestic indices, the Nifty could test the recent low below 2950 on the downside and a break below could see it decline to 2850, while on the upside the index has resistances at 3000 and 3050. The Sensex has a likely support at 9700 and may face resistance at 9850. ABB, Abhishek Industries, Aditiya Birla Nova, Alstom Project, Ambuja Cement, Balaji Telecom, Bank of Maharashtra, BEL, Colgate, Crisil, Dish TV, HUL, ITC, Hexaware, IDBI Bank, Moser Bear, NTPC, Oracle, RECL and TV18 are expected to announce their numbers.

US indices witnessed a mixed on Thursday with the Dow Jones gains 172 points at 8691, the Nasdaq lost 12 points to close at 1604.

Majority of the Indian floats ended in the green. VSNL was the biggest gainer and gain over 10.08% followed by MTNL which was up 8.97%. Infosys, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Patni Computer were up 1-4% each. While Tata Motors lost 9.97%, Rediff moved down over 4.21%, Wipro declined 4.13% and Satyam, Dr Reddy lost over 0.10% each.

Crude oil prices gained marginally in the international market, with the Nymex light crude oil for November delivery moved up by $1.09 to close at $67.84 per barrel. In the commodity space, the Comex gold for December delivery lost $20.50 to settle at $714.70 an ounce.

Trading Calls - Oct 24 2008

Considering the unprecedented carnage in the global financial markets and uncertainty over the fate of the US and other major economies, we would like to refrain from giving any intra-day trading ideas. We continue to advise caution at this stage.