Nifty March 2008 futures at discount

Turnover in F&O segment declines


Nifty March 2008 futures were at 5271, at a discount of 14.10 points as compared to spot closing of 5285.10. Derivatives contracts for February 2008 series expired today, 28 February 2008.

NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 61,065.26 crore, which was lower than Rs 63,256.76 crore on Wednesday, 27 February 2008.

Reliance Industries March 2008 futures were at premium, at 2550, compared to the spot closing of 2533.25.

Tata Steel March 2008 futures were at premium, at 827, compared to the spot closing of 824.30.

NTPC March 2008 futures were near spot price, at 203.30, compared to the spot closing of 203.55.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty gained 16.70 points or 0.32% at 5285.10.

Crude jumps, dollar sulks

Price settles above $102 as dollar slips to new low against the euro


Crude prices rose by almost $3 today after the dollar fell to new lows against most of its counterparts, mainly the euro. The dollar fell on interest rate outlook in the US as Chairman Ben Bernanke continued to answer questions for the second day at Capitol Hill. He had hinted yesterday that Fed will go for further softer landing in the coming days and might reduce interest rate by another fifty bps in its next meeting.

Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for April delivery today closed at $102.59/barrel (higher by $2.95/barrel or 3%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are 66% higher than a year ago. Reports of production disruption at Nigeria also pushed up crude prices today.

In the currency market today, the U.S. dollar tumbled to record lows against the euro after lackluster economic data and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments raised fears about the U.S. economy. The trade-weighted dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 1.2% to 73.68.

The Commerce Department reported today that the U.S. economy grew at an unrevised 0.6% annual rate for the fourth quarter. And for all of 2007, the economy grew at the weakest pace in five years.

Today, oil prices were also supported by reports of a partial shutdown of production in Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer and the U.S.'s fifth-largest crude supplier.

Yesterday crude prices had infact dropped after EIA had reported in the weekly inventory report that crude inventories grew more than expected, rising 3.2 million barrels to stand at 308.5 million barrels in the week ended 22 February. Market was expecting an increase of 2.6 million barrels.

Brent crude oil for April settlement today rose $2.63 (2.7%) to $100.9 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The London benchmark rose 54% in FY 2007, the most since 1999 when prices more than doubled.

Natural gas supplies drop more than average

Natural gas advanced after a government report showed supplies fell more than average, signaling inventories may end the cold-weather demand season at the lowest since March 2005. Gas for April delivery rose 38.3 cents (4.2%) to settle at $9.433 per million British thermal units. EIA reported that stockpiles declined 151 billion cubic feet to 1.619 trillion cubic feet for the week ended 22 February.

Against this backdrop, March reformulated gasoline gained 2 cents to $2.50 a gallon and March heating oil rose 8 cents to end at $2.85 a gallon. Both contracts are due to expire tomorrow.

In a monthly report released earlier this month, EIA said the world oil market is poised to ease over the next two years with production increases offsetting moderate growth in oil demand.

Crude had ended FY 2007 substantially higher by $35 or 57%. It was crude’s biggest yearly gain in five years.

At the MCX, crude oil for March delivery closed at Rs 4,034/barrel, higher by Rs 27 (0.7%) against previous day’s close. Natural gas for March delivery closed at Rs 374.5/mmtbu, higher by Rs 13.6/mmtbu (3.8%).

Record close for bullions

Gold and silver prices take a leap on interest rate outlook


Bullion metal prices rose sharply higher for the third straight day today, 28 February, 2008 after the dollar slumped sharply against its rival currencies, mainly the euro. The dollar have been dampened mainly since yesterday after the Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke hinted that Fed in all possibility will go for another soft landing in its next meeting thereby reducing interest rates by another 50 bps.

This has been weakening dollar further. Gold, as a dollar-denominated commodity, suffers from dollar strength. On the contrary, gold prices rise with falling dollar as inflationary concerns boosts the metal's appeal as an inflation hedge. Silver prices also gained substantially today, reaching the highest level in twenty eight years.

Comex Gold for April delivery rose $6.5 (0.7%) to close at $967.5 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices touched a record $975/ounce during after hours trading. This year, gold prices have gained 15.7% till date. In January, prices gained 11%, the highest monthly gain since April 2006.

Last week, gold gained $41.5 (4.6%). Prices increased due to the slumping dollar and supply issues at South Africa.

Comex Silver futures for May delivery rose by 43.2 cents (2.2%) to $19.756 an ounce. Silver has gained 28% in 2008. The metal had climbed 16% in FY 2007. The metal also has gained for seven straight years. In January this year itself, prices climbed 14%.

The Fed has cut the federal funds rate to 3% from 5.25% in mid-September. January 2008 itself saw two rate cuts in a gap of ten days.

In the energy market today, crude-oil futures rose substantially and closed at more than $102/barrel on reports of production disruptions in Nigeria and record low dollar against the euro.

In the currency market today, the U.S. dollar tumbled to record lows against the euro after lackluster economic data and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments raised fears about the U.S. economy. The trade-weighted dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 1.2% to 73.68.

Gold has traditionally been used as a safe-haven asset against rising inflation. Investor sentiments are boosted by the fact that gold and silver are alternate sources of good investment in the face of declining dollar and rising energy prices. On the other hand strong dollar reduces the appeal of the metal as alternate source of investment.

Gold witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. The Fed reduced federal funds rate three times in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

At the MCX, gold prices for April delivery closed higher by Rs 59 (0.5%) at Rs 12,293 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 12,330 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 12,175 per 10 grams during the day’s trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for March delivery closed Rs 326 (1.3%) higher at Rs 24,683/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 24,255/kg and went to a high of Rs 24,840/Kg during the day’s trading.

Post Market Commentary - Feb 28 2008

The Sensex opened marginally (15 points) lower at 17,811 on mixed cues from the Asian markets. The index moved into positive zone and touched a high of 17,922 in early trades.

The index could not hold gains and slipped back into negative territory. The index touched a low of 17,690 - down 232 points from the day's high - but rebounded into positive zone in late trades.

The Sensex finally ended on a flat note (down two points) at 17,824.

The NSE Nifty moved up 17 points to end at 5,285.

The BSE market breadth was marginally negative - out of 2,784 stocks traded, 1,444 declined, 1,276 advanced today.

INDEX MOVERS...

Hindalco gained 4% to Rs 204. Bajaj Auto moved up 3.6% to Rs 2,255.

HDFC and Mahindra & Mahindra added over 3% each to close at Rs 2,775 and Rs 680, respectively.

BHEL gained 2.7% at Rs 2,324. Wipro, Cipla and Satyam advanced over 2% each to Rs 450, Rs 206 and Rs 447, respectively.

Ranbaxy moved up nearly 2% to Rs 445. Tata Steel and HDFC Bank were up around 1.5% each at Rs 824 and Rs 1,471, respectively.

...AND THE SHAKERS

DLF dropped over 2% to Rs 805. SBI and Reliance declined 2% each to Rs 2,039 and Rs 2,537, respectively.

Reliance Energy slipped nearly 2% to Rs 1,601.

Infosys, ACC and ICICI Bank were down around 1% each at Rs 1,599, Rs 808 and Rs 1,103, respectively.

VALUE & VOLUME TOPPERS

OnMobile topped the value chart with a turnover of Rs 271.35 crore followed by Reliance Capital (Rs 186 crore), debutant Manjushree Extrusions (Rs 173.35 crore), Reliance Energy (Rs 149.65 crore) and Reliance Energy (Rs 147.70 crore).

Manjushree Extrusions led the volume chart with trades of around 3.16 crore shares followed by Tulsi Extrusions (1.27 crore), Reliance Natural Resources (1.09 crore), Nagarjuna Fertilisers (1.07 crore) and Ispat Industries (80.85 lakh).

Metal and health care stocks trigger late Sensex bounce back

A late bout of hectic buying action in metal, health care and other heavyweight counters triggered a major rally in the Sensex, which otherwise lingered in negative territory for better part of the trading session. On the back of a weak Asian indices, the Sensex witnessed extreme volatility in early trades. After resuming weak at 17,810, the index advanced sharply and touched the intra-day high of 17,921, thereafter Sensex began to dip sharply on heavy profit taking to touch the day's low of 17,690. While the market remained subdued thereafter, the Sensex on fresh buying support rebounded sharply at close. The Sensex finally ended the session with marginal loss of a single point at 17,825, while the Nifty advanced 17 points to close at 5,285.

Sectoral indices were mixed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The BSE Metal index led the pack with a surge of 1.98% followed by BSE HC index , which gained 1.72%, and BSE Auto index which moved up 1.18%. BSE CG, Power and PSU indices gained marginally and closed in positive territory. Among the losers the BSE Reality index dropped 1.47%.

Leading the upsurge Hindalco flared up 4.03% at Rs203.85. Among other major gainers Bajaj Auto shot up by 3.61% at Rs2,255, HDFC rose 3.39% at Rs2,775, M&M jumped by 3.26% at Rs680 and BHEL added 2.68% at Rs2,323. Cipla, Satyam, Ranbaxy, Tata Steel and Wipro gained 1-2% each. Select frontline counters, however, witnessed profit taking. DLF dropped 2.37% at Rs805, while SBI declined 2.11% at Rs2,038. RIL, REL, Ambuja Cement and Infosys ended with steady losses.

Among other major gainers NALCO soared 7.01% at Rs477.95, Tata Communications flared up 6.56% at Rs518, Spice Tele rose 5.78% at Rs36.60 and Sun Pharma added 5.58% at Rs1,259.

Over 3.15 crore Manjuhsree shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Tulsi Extrusion (1.27 crore shares), RNRL (1.09 crore shares), Nagarjuna Fertilisers (1.07 crore shares) and Ispat Industries (0.80 crore shares).

Nifty outscores Sensex

The barometer index BSE Sensex ended flat ahead of presentation of Union Budget 2008-09 by the Finance Minister P Chidambaram in Parliament. However, Nifty recorded gains against a flat closing for Sensex. Normally, the rise or fall in Sensex in a day is about three times that of Nifty.

The market had recovered from lower level in early afternoon trade after the finance ministry tabled Economic Survey - a report card on the economy during this fiscal in partliament at about 12:00 IST, the recovery was short lived. Derivatives contracts for February 2008 series expired today, 28 February 2008.

Auto, metal, healthcare stocks rose. Realty stocks fell. Reliance Industries slipped. The market breadth was weak. European markets which opened after Indian market were subdued in early trade. Asian markets, which opened before Indian market, were mixed.

The 30-share BSE Sensex ended down 1.51 points or 0.01% at 17,824.48. Sensex hit a low of 17,692.13 in mid-morning trade. At the day's low, Sensex lost 133.86 points. Sensex touched a high of 17,921.51 in initial trade. At day’s high it rose 95.52 points.

The broader CNX S&P Nifty was up 16.7 points or 0.32% at 5,285.1.

National Alluminium Company (up 7.96% to Rs 482.70), Tata Communications (up 7.84% to Rs 525.25), Dr. Reddy’s Labooratories (up 5.66% to Rs 572.35), Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (up 4.46% to Rs 1,254.20) and Hindalco Industries (up 4.26% to Rs 204.30) were top five gainers from Nifty pack. These five scrips have a combined weightage of 3.3% in Nifty. Four of these five stocks are not a part of Sensex. Hindalco which is a Sensex stock has a 1.38% weightage in the barometer index.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 4,822 crore today 28 February 2008 compared to a turnover of Rs 5,876.55 crore on Wednesday, 28 February 2008.

Nifty March 2008 futures were at 5271, at a discount of 14.10 points as compared to spot closing of 5285.10.

NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 61,065.26 crore, which was lower than Rs 63,256.76 crore on Wednesday, 27 February 2008.

Maintaining economic growth at about 9% a year will be a challenge due to inflation and infrastructure constraints, and raising the rate to double digits will be even harder, the Economic Survey for 2007-08 said. Agricultural sector growth is estimated to slow to 2.6% in the year ending March 2008, from 3.8% the year before, it said. Development of adequate infrastructure is a critical prerequisite for sustaining the economic growth momentum, the survey said.

It said containing inflation was a priority, because rising prices hurt the poor, and putting pressure on interest rates hit both savings and investment. The survey said Inflation should remain moderate in the coming months due to policy measures taken over the last year.

A surge in capital inflows, including foreign direct investment, would continue in the medium term although short-term inflows may moderate due to slightly slower growth, the survey said. Any reduction in excess capital flows from the high levels of 2007 may affect the equity markets in the short term but will make the task of monetary management easier, the survey said.

Finance Minister (FM) P Chidambaram today said that he was confident of achieving 11th Plan target of 9% growth. BSE Consumer Durables index (down 0.81% to 4,795.14), BSE Oil & Gas index (down 0.84% to 11,164.87), BSE Bankex (down 0.81% to 10,073.91), BSE Realty index (down 1.47% to 9,833.10), BSE IT index (down 0.14% to 3,967.40), BSE FMCG index (down 0.05% to 2,253.95) underperformed Sensex.

BSE PSU index (up 0.33% to 8,499.34) , BSE Power index (up 0.38% to 3,748.11), BSE HealthCare index (up 1.7% to 3,925.75), BSE Capital Goods index (up 0.56% to 16,598.88) BSE Auto index (up 1.18% to 4,829.86) and BSE Metal index (up 1.98% to 16,972.01) outperformed Sensex.

The market breadth was weak: on BSE 1452 declined as compared to 1,269 that advanced. 41 stocks remained unchanged.

India’s largest engineering & construction firm by revenue Larsen & Toubro rose 0.28% to Rs 3,641.20. It recovered from its lows of Rs 3,600.

India’s largest private sector firm by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries declined 1.97% at Rs 2,536.70. The company said on Tuesday, 26 January 2008 it had discovered more gas in an exploration block off India's east coast.

Realty stocks fell. India’s largest real estate player by market cap DLF declined 2.37% to Rs 805.35. DLF will reportedly invest about $5 billion or Rs 20,000 crore to build and operate more than 25,000 hotel rooms in the next 7-8 years. The New Delhi-based real estate major is also in talks to set up nine super luxury hotels across India, the reports added. Indiabulls Real Estate (down 1.02% to Rs 647.30) and Unitech (down 1.56% to Rs 376.45) edged lower.

Auto stocks rose. Hero Honda Motors (up 3.73% to Rs 747.30), Mahindra & Mahindra (up 3.26% to Rs 680.15), Bajaj Auto (up 3.61% to Rs 2,255) and Maruti Suzuki India (up 0.34% to Rs 834.95) edged higher. India's largest truck maker by sales Tata Motors rose 0.4% to Rs 710.25.

Metal stocks rose. Sterlite Industries (up 3.93% to Rs 853.70), Steel Authority of India (up 3.88% to Rs 252.80) and Tata Steel (up 1.56% to Rs 823.70) edged higher.

Healthcare stocks edged higher. Cipla rose 2.23% to Rs 206.05 and Ranbaxy Laboratories rose 1.88% at Rs 444.55.

NTPC, India's biggest power generation firm by revenue, rose 0.79% to Rs 203.95. NTPC has signed a loan agreement for 68.56 million euros with Nordic Investment Bank to part fund its capital expenditure. The 12-year loan carries a floating interest rate linked to EURIBOR, and is without a sovereign guarantee, the company said after market hours on Wednesday, 27 February 2008.

HDFC (up 3.39% to Rs 2,775.35) and Bharat Heavy Electricals (up 2.68% to Rs 2,323.60) edged higher from the Sensex pack.

Ambuja Cements (down 1.38% to Rs 121.20) and Reliance Energy (down 1.88% to Rs 1,600.70) edged lower from the Sensex pack.

Tulsi Extrusions clocked highest volume of 1.27 crore shares on BSE. Reliance Natural Resources (1.09 crore shares), Nagarjuna Fertilisers and Chemicals (1.07 crore shares), Ispat Industries (80.83 lakh shares) and Centurion Bank of Punjab (76.62 lakh shares) were other vlume toppers in that order.

OnMobile Global clocked highest turnover of Rs 271.36 crore on BSE. Reliance Capital (Rs 186.13 crore), Reliance Industries (Rs 149.63 crore), Reliance Energy (Rs 147.68 crore) and Reliance Natural Resources (Rs 146.13 crore) were other turnover toppers in that order.

As per provisional data on NSE.Foreign institutional investoes (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 809.1 crore today, 28 February 2008 . Domestic funds bought shares worth Rs 732.38 crore.

With general elections due in 2009, Union Budget 2008-09 to be presented on 29 February 2008 will be the last full-fledged budget of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government and it is therefore likely to be a populist budget. Thus, the Finance Minister (FM) is likely to provide higher allocations to several social initiatives like rural upliftment, employment, education, agricultural growth and public health.

Though populist measures will dominate the budget, FM is also expected to take steps to stimulate investment and consumption demand at a time when the economy is witnessing moderation from a solid growth last year. A reduction in personal income tax, if any, will result in increase in disposable incomes which in turn may boost demand for consumer goods.

Expectations are that the corporate income tax rate may be cut or the 10% surcharge on corporate tax may be abolished. The surcharge is 10% on a tax rate of 30%, making the effective corporate tax rate 33%. Another possibility is that of a cut in dividend distribution tax from 15% to 12.5%.

Meanwhile, FM may raise the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) slightly. STT is currently at 0.125% on delivery trades. STT is 0.025% on non-delivery trades on sell transactions. STT is 0.017 % in futures & options segment on sell trasactions.

It is also expected that the FM would announce some relief packages for troubled export sensitive sectors like textiles, rubber, jewelry, leather and IT services. These sectors have been hit by rupee’s surge in the past one year.

European markets were subdued. France’s CAC 40, Germany’s DAX and UK’s FTSE 100 were down by between 0.97% to 1.11%.

Asian markets were mixed today. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, and Singapore, were up by between 0.44% to 0.89%. Key benchmark indices in Japan, South Korea ,China were down by between 0.75% to 1.13%. Financial markets in Taiwan are closed for a holiday.

US stocks were little changed on Wednesday after a rally fizzled when doubts emerged that lifting investment caps on the two largest home financing companies was enough to prevent deeper damage to the housing market. The Dow Jones industrial average was up 9.36 points, or 0.07%, at 12,694.28. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 1.27 points, or 0.09%, at 1,380.02. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 8.79 points, or 0.37%, at 2,353.78.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday signaled a readiness to cut interest rates again to prevent further damage to the weak US economy, even as he took note of rising inflation risks. Delivering the Fed's semiannual report on the economy to Congress, Bernanke made clear the central bank was worried a deepening housing slump, softening jobs market and tighter credit could dim an already bleak economic outlook

Market Close : Bad cues from Europe... eats up gain

Markets opened in green and continued to trade higher 200 points the first half of the day with supportive global cues from US & Asian markets but could not maintain the momentum in late trade and slipped sharply on the back weak cues from the European markets. Value buying was seen in sectors like capital goods, metal, power, banking and Pharma space. While IT and FMCG stocks remained subdued for most part of the day. Airlines counter ended mixed ahead of Crude prices hit a record high of $102.08/bbl. Midcaps and smallcap indices also performed well in line with frontline counters. Market witnessed some sort of cautions approach as FnO expiry tomorrow. In Mid session markets sliped from the day's high on nervousness in European market on account of uncertain economic statements from U.K.'s biggest mortgage lender, HBOS which followed Indian Indices to lose the major gains to end flat with only 20 points in green. Asian indices ended in green but Europe started subdued and trading in red.

Sensex closed up by 20 points at 17825.99. It was helped up by gains in HDFC (2684.3999,+4 percent), Ranbaxy (436.35,+4 percent), BHEL (2262.8999,+4 percent), L & T (3630.95,+3 percent) and Maruti (832.1,+2 percent). Restricting the gains were Grasim (2888.6499,-5 percent), Rel Energy (1631.35,-4 percent), Satyam (437.1,-3 percent), Infosys (1617.4,-3 percent) and TCS (877.7,-2 percent).

Sugar companies based out of UP were under pressure. Supreme courts asked UP sugar mills to pay SAP at Rs 123/quintal for 2006-2007 against an appeal for Rs 110/quintal. This is negative for UP based sugar mills as they have to pay higher price for sugarcane. Against SAP of Rs 125/ qnt , UP mills had requested for cane price of Rs 110/ qnt. Bajaj Hindustan will be affected more, since it has taken less cane prices in accounting. This will reflect in next results. At current prices of sugar and the price to be paid, these mills make only marginal profits. But, global sugar prices are high and this provides some relief for sugar companies . Sugar mills outside UP follow SMP and this gives them an advantage over UP mills. We were negative on Bajaj Hindustan and Balrampur Chini the two major UP based sugar comanies and we also commented to look for a downside trade.

Paramount Communication was on 5% circuit today. the cable industry which is very much in focus has povided paramount to lead the game . Paramount is one of the leading manufacturers of Power Cables, Railway Cables and Telecom Cables. Paramount has two manufacturing units located at Dharuhera, Haryana and Khushkhera, Rajasthan. Paramount drives 85% of revenues from Power and Railway cable, 10% from Jelly Filled Telephone cables and rest 5% from Optical Fibre cable. Paramount is expanding the capacity in three phases with an investment of Rs 120 cr. Paramount acquired, AEI cables in UK one of the oldest cable manufacturing companies with a strong reputation. Paramount enjoys the acquisition synergy in terms of marketing network and good distribution in UK and helps to enter other countries also. At the current market price of Rs 34 valuations are attractive compared to its peers. We are positive on the business with long term view. Do read our note to know more.

Technically Speaking: Markets ended flat with profit booking seen in the later final hour trades. Sensex made an intra day high of 18137 and low of 17771. The breadth was in favor of Advances, as there were 1420 against 1308 Declines. Market turnover was fine at Rs 4848 Cr. Another lower top made today by Sensex. If now it goes below 17000, we can expect a target of 16300 and immediate support seen at 17650 while resistance at 18200-18500.

Post Market Commentary - Feb 27 2008

The Sensex opened with a positive gap of 177 points at 17,983 on positive cues from the Asian markets. The index touched a high of 18,137 - up 331 points from the previous close - in morning deals.

Selling emerged in mid-noon deals, and a heavy bout of selling in late trades saw the index drop to a low of 17,771 - down 366 points from the day's high.

The Sensex finally ended with a marginal gain of 20 points at 17,826.

The Nifty was down two points at 5,268.

The BSE market breadth was marginally positive - out of 2,805 stocks traded, 1,419 advanced, 1,306 declined and 80 were unchanged.

INDEX MOVERS...

Mahindra & Mahindra and HDFC gained around 4.5% each to Rs 659 and Rs 2,684, respectively.

Ranbaxy and BHEL added around 4% each to Rs 436 and Rs 2,263, respectively.

Larsen & Toubro moved up over 3% to Rs 3,631. Maruti gained 2.4% at Rs 832, and ONGC was up 1% at Rs 1,038.

...AND THE SHAKERS

Grasim slumped 5% to Rs 2,889. Reliance Energy tumbled nearly 4% to Rs 1,631.

Satyam and Infosys dropped nearly 3% each to Rs 437 and Rs 1,617, respectively. TCS slipped over 2% to Rs 878.

ACC and SBI declined 1.8% each to Rs 816 and Rs 2,083, respectively.

VALUE & VOLUME TOPPERS

Reliance led the value chart with a turnover of Rs 364.70 crore followed by OnMobile Global (Rs 311 crore), IRB Infrastructure (Rs 306.70 crore), Reliance Capital (Rs 262.50 crore) and Tulsi Extrusions (Rs 231 crore).

Ispat Industries topped the volume chart with trades of around 2.05 crore shares followed by Tulsi Extrusions (1.86 crore), IRB Infrastructure (1.53 crore), Reliance Natural Resources (1.21 crore) and Centurion Bank of Punjab (86.15 lakh).

REL, RCom, RPL February 2008 futures at discount

Nifty February 2008 futures were at 5241.05, at a discount of 27.35 points as compared to spot closing of 5268.40.

The NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 63,256.76 crore, which was higher than Rs 56,515.69 crore on Tuesday, 26 February 2008.

Reliance Energy (REL) February 2008 futures were at discount, at 1628, compared to the spot closing of 1634.50.

Reliance Communications (RCom) February 2008 futures were at discount, at 582.75, compared to the spot closing of 585.35.

Reliance Petroleum (RPL) February 2008 futures were at discount, at 164.65, compared to the spot closing of 165.75.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty lost 1.65 points or 0.03% at 5268.40.

Market ends positive

The market was poised for another positive finish, but a late bout of selling pressure dragged the Sensex below 17,800 and halted its resurgence. On the back of firm international indices, the Sensex opened with a positive gap of 177 points at 17,983 and moved up sharply to touch the day's high of 18,137. However, the market came under a sharp bout of profit taking and was 33 points down from the yesterday's close, with the index slipping to an intra-day low of 17,772. Finally, the Sensex erased most of its losses and ended 20 points up at 17,825, while the Nifty was down two points at 5,268.

The market breadth was marginally positive. Of the 2,805 stocks traded on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), 1,435 stocks advanced, 1,294 stocks declined and 76 stocks ended unchanged. On sectoral front, BSE CG index flared up by 2.37% at 16,507 and BSE HC index gained 1.22% at 3,860, while BSE Power ended marginally higher at 3,733. Other sectoral indices were down around 1% each.

Among the major losers Grasim Industries declined 5.06% at Rs2,888.56, Reliance Energy lost 3.88% at Rs1,631.35, Satyam Computer Services slumped 2.81% at Rs437.10 and Infosys was down 2.69% at Rs1,617.40. Select heavyweights attracted buying support. M&M rose 4.52% at Rs658.65, HDFC moved up by 4.27% at Rs2,684.40, Ranbaxy advanced 4.10% at Rs436.35 and BHEL gained 3.78% at Rs2,262.90.

Over 2.05 crore Ispat Industries shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Tulsi Extrusion (1.86 crore shares), IRB Infrastructure (1.53 crore shares), Central Bank of Punjab (0.86 crore shares) and Power Grid (0.85 crore shares).

Market registers marginal gains

The key benchmark indices came off higher levels in late trade and ended almost flat due to selling in IT and banking counters. European markets which opened after Indian market, fell. The market had held firm for a better part of the day on firm Asian markets. Reliance Energy declined. Grasim Industries and Infosys were major losers from Sensex pack.

Capital goods stocks were in demand. The market breadth was positive

Asian markets, which opened before Indian markets, surged after weak US economic data and comments from a Federal Reserve official signalled that US interest rates will continue to head lower. Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said on Tuesday that a weak US economy was a bigger worry than higher inflation risks.

The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 19.80 points or 0.11% at 17,825.99. Sensex touched a high of 18,137.28 in mid-morning trade. At day’s high, Sensex rose 331.09 points. Sensex hit a low of 17,770.65 in late trade. At the day's low, Sensex was down 35.54 points.

The broader CNX S&P Nifty ended down 1.65 points or 0.03% at 5,268.40.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 5859 crore today 27 February 2008 compared to a turnover of Rs 4,844.22 crore on Tuesday, 26 February 2008.

Nifty February 2008 futures were at 5241.05, at a discount of 27.35 points as compared to spot closing of 5268.40.

The NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 63,256.76 crore, which was higher than Rs 56,515.69 crore on Tuesday, 26 February 2008.

The next major trigger for the market is the Union Budget 2008-09. With general elections due in 2009, Union Budget 2008-09 to be presented on 29 February 2008 will be the last full-fledged budget of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government and it is therefore likely to be a populist budget. Thus, the Finance Minister (FM) is likely to provide higher allocations to several social initiatives like rural upliftment, employment, education, agricultural growth and public health.

Though populist measures will dominate the budget, FM is also expected to take steps to stimulate investment and consumption demand at a time when the economy is witnessing moderation from a solid growth last year. A reduction in personal income tax, if any, will result in increase in disposable incomes which in turn may boost demand for consumer goods.

Expectations are that the corporate income tax rate may be cut or the 10% surcharge on corporate tax may be abolished. The surcharge is 10% on a tax rate of 30%, making the effective corporate tax rate 33%. Another possibility is that of a cut in dividend distribution tax from 15% to 12.5%.

Meanwhile, FM may raise the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) slightly. STT is currently at 0.125% on delivery trades. STT is 0.025% on non-delivery trades on sell transactions. STT is 0.017 % in futures & options segment on sell trasactions.

It is also expected that the FM would announce some relief packages for troubled export sensitive sectors like textiles, rubber, jewelry, leather and IT services. These sectors have been hit by rupee’s surge in the past one year.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 0.43% at 7,723.56, while the BSE Small-Cap was up 0.26% at 9,673.86. Both these indices outperformed Sensex.

BSE Consumer Durables index (down 0.64% to 4,834.12), , BSE Metal index (down 0.95% to 16,642.01), BSE IT index (down 2.2% to 3,973.12), BSE Bankex (down 0.32% to 10,156.52), BSE Realty index (down 0.37% to 9,979.72) underperformed Sensex.

BSE PSU index (up 0.39% to 8,471.05), BSE Oil & Gas index (up 0.4% to 11,259.92), BSE Power index (up 0.73% to 3,733.77), BSE HealthCare index (up 1.22% to 3,860.02), BSE Captal Goods index (up 2.37% to 16,506.67) BSE Auto index (up 0.57% to 4,773.34), and BSE FMCG index (up 0.19% to 2,254.98) outperformed Sensex.

The market breadth was positive: on BSE 1,433 advanced as compared to 1,300 that declined. 41 stocks remained unchanged.

IT stocks declined in late trade. Satyam Computer Services (down 2.81% to Rs 437.10), Wipro (down 0.96% to Rs 439.90), Tata Consultancy Services (down 2.24% to Rs 877.70), Infosys (down 2.69% to Rs 1,617.40) edged lower.

Banking stocks fell in late trade. ICICI Bank (down 0.38% to Rs 1,113.75), HDFC Bank (down 0.22% to Rs 1,451.75) and State Bank of India (down 1.76% to Rs 2,082.55) edged lower.

India’s largest private sector firm by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries rose 0.46% at Rs 2,587.55. It came off from session's high of Rs 2,624. The company said on Tuesday, 26 January 2008 it had discovered more gas in an exploration block off India's east coast. This is the company's eight discovery in the block.

Among the top gainers from Sensex pack were Mahindra & Mahindra (up 4.52% to Rs 658.65), Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) (up 4.27% to Rs 2,684.40) and Ranbaxy Laboratories (up 4.1% to Rs 436.35).

Among the Sensex losers from Sensex pack were ACC (down 2.24% to Rs 812.25), and Grasim Industries (down 5.06% to Rs 2,888.65).

India's second largest power utility firm by revenue Reliance Energy declined 3.88% to Rs 1,631.35. It came off from day's high of Rs 1,745. The company said yesterday its board will meet on 5 March 2008 to consider, buy back of equity shares of the company.

Capital goods stocks were in demand. Larsen & Toubro (up 3.2% to Rs 3,630.95), Bharat Heavy Electricals (up 3.78% to Rs 2,262.90) edged higher. However, Suzlon Energy declined 3.54% to Rs 303.70.

India’s largest truckmaker by sales Tata Motors rose 0.76% to Rs 707.45. Tata Motors and Ford reportedly plan to sign a memorandum of understanding possibly on 5 March 2008 for Tata Motors' possible acquisition of Ford's luxury British brands, Jaguar and Land Rover. The complete sale of Jaguar-Land Rover to Tatas will take 6-8 weeks.

Ispat Industries clocked highest volume of 2.05 crore shares on BSE. Tulsi Extrusions (1.86 crore shares), IRB Infrastructure Developers (1.53 crore shares), Reliance Natural Resources (1.2 crore shares) and Centurion Bank of Punjab (86.15 lakh shares) were the other volume toppers in that order.

Reliance Industries clocked highest turnover of Rs 364.71 crore on BSE. OnMobile Global (Rs 310.87 crore), IRB Infrastructure Developers (Rs 306.7 crore), Reliance Capital (Rs 262.46 crore) and Tulsi Extrusions (Rs 231.1 crore) were other turnover toppers in that order.

A per provisional data on NSE,foreign institutional invstor (FIIs) purchased shares worth Rs 350.45 crore today, 27 February 2008. Domestic funds bought shares worth Rs 341.35 crore.

European shares eased after results from British mortgage lender HBOS weighed on banks, although the decline was limited by a rally in crude oil that supported energy shares. France’s CAC 40, Germany’s DAX and UK’s FTSE 100 were down by between 0.33%-0.87%.

In Asia, the key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were up by between 0.69% to 2.7%.

US stocks rose for a third day on Tuesday as technology companies gained on IBM's plans to buy back $15 billion of its shares and the energy sector advanced on a record high close for oil in New York. The Dow Jones industrial average was up 114.70 points, or 0.91%, at 12,684.92. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 9.49 points, or 0.69%, at 1,381.29. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 17.51 points, or 0.75%, at 2,344.99.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, April 2008 crude settled at a record $100.88 a barrel, up $1.65, on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, 26 Februray 2008, the market had extended Monday (25 February 2008)'s gains after Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav provided thrust on modernising rail infrastructure in Railway Budget 2008-09 which he presented to parliament on that day. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 155.62 points or 0.88% at 17,806.19. Keeping the common man in mind, the railway minister also cut passenger fares, with parliamentary elections due in 2009. Firm global markets also helped support domestic bourses.

Trading Call - Network 18

Buy Network 18 with a stop loss of Rs 338 for target of Rs 411

Pre Budget Expectations - 2008

Pre Budget Expectations - 2008

Daily Technicals - Feb 27 2008

Daily Technicals - Feb 27 2008

Key Highlights - Railway Budget

Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav announced his fifth Railway budget 2008-09 today (Feb 26, 2008). Key highlights of the Railway Budget are as follows:

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> Revenue from passenger fares rose 14% in 2007-08

> In April-December, revenue from frieght services climbed 8-10% to Rs 347 billion

> Additional frieght services of Rs 20 billion

> Cash surplus of Rs 250 billion

> Operating ratio at 76%

> Dividend of Rs 88

> Railway fund balance up at Rs 204.80 billion

> Reduced fares helped to increase volumes and profits

> Productivity of railway assets have been constantly increasing

> Adopted tariff to go up market share and revenues

> To produce only stainless steel coaches from FY10

> To link train via software communications by 2009

> New coaches in all Shatabdi Trains by 2011

> To have online contol of trains in 2 years

> New coaches in all Rajdhani Trains by 2009

> Plan to spend Rs 750 bn on infrastructure over 7 years

> Stainless steel coaches likely to benefit steel companies viz. JSW Steel, Jindal Stainless,
Tata Steel, BEML, Texmaco

> 25 - 20 Tonne Axle Loads trains to be started

> Thrust on IT likely to benefit domestic software companies

> To manufacture 20,000 Wagons by FY09

> 50 new terminals planned in Mumbai, Pune, Ghaziabad

> To have new Wagon Leasing Policy

> 200 MT tariff seen from cement in 2011 - 12

> Container Corporations ( CONCOR ) to set up 8 Depots

> To have new policy for Bulk Handling Terminals

> Annual steel traffic aim at 200 million tonnes (MT) by 2011 from 120 MT now

> ETA Display in the long route trains likely to benefit MIC Electronics

> Rs 40 billions to come from real estate development in 2008-09

> Connectivity to Mundra likely to benefit Mundra SEZ, Tata power, Reliance Energy.

> Focus on increased security at railway stations

> Gangmen could become Gatemen in unmanned process

> Planning smart card based ticket system

> Senior citizen women to get a relief of 50% from 30% now

> More facilties to be provided to old and women passengers

> Plan fire prevention device in train coaches on pilot basis, it could cost Rs 70 billions if implemented fully

> CCTV, metal detectors to be installed in all railway stations

> CFL`s to be used in order to encourage power saving

> Doubling of lines to be given priority

> Coach factory to be set up in Kerala, Kerala Government has given 1000 acres land for its
development

> Railways to provide escalators at 50% of the railway stations

> Mother Child Health Express likely to be started

> Fares cut announced by Railway Minister

> Sleeper fare cut upto 5% across the board, Re 1 discount to all fares upto Rs 150

> AC I fares to cut by 7%, AC II by 4% and AC III by 3%

> Frieght on petrol and diesel cut by 5%

> Frieghtrates on FLY ASH cut by 14%