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Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Indiabulls Real Estate Technical Analysis
We recommend a sell in the stock of Indiabulls Real Estate from a short-term perspective. It is apparent from the charts that the stock had been on an intermediate-term uptrend from its March 2009 low of Rs 83 till it encountered key resistance at Rs 298 in October 2009. However, the stock reversed direction and started to decline. Since October the stock has been on a medium-term downtrend. While trending down, it penetrated the intermediate-term uptrend-line and the key support at Rs 250 in end-October. The stock is trading well below its 21, 50 and 200-day moving average compression occurred around Rs 220. On January 25, the stock fell almost 4 per cent, breaching the immediate support level of Rs 200. The daily relative strength index (RSI) is featuring in the bearish zone and weekly RSI is on the brink of entering this zone from the neutral region. Besides, the daily moving average convergence and divergence indicator has re-entered into negative territory and weekly MACD is entering this territory. Our short-term outlook is bearish for the stock. We expect it to decline until it hits our price target of Rs 172. Traders with short-term perspective can consider selling the stock while maintaining stop-loss at Rs 201.
via BL
Bullion metals end mixed
Gold rises but silver slips
Precious metal prices ended on a mixed mode on Tuesday, 26 January 2010. Gold prices rose as consumer confidence showed increase in January. But silver prices dropped.
Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.
On Tuesday, gold for April delivery ended at $1,099.5 an ounce, higher by $2.7 (0.2%) an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier during the day prices dropped. Last week, prices ended lower by 2.4%. Year to date in FY 2010, gold prices are higher by 0.5%.
Last year, after hitting a low at $807.30 per ounce on 15 January 2009, gold futures rallied almost 51% to hit an all-time high at $1217.40 per ounce during early December of 2009 but fell from those levels at the end.
On Tuesday, March Comex silver futures ended lower by 28.5 cents (1.6%) at $16.86 an ounce. Last week, silver ended lower by 8.1%. Year to date in FY 2010, silver has risen by almost 0.3%.
Silver futures had hit a low at $10.42 on 15 January 2009 and hit a high at $19.30 per ounce on 2 December 2009. Like gold, silver also ended lower than its all time high level.
In the currency market on Tuesday, the dollar index, which weighs the strength of dollar against the basket of six other currencies rose by almost 0.3%.
The Conference Board reported on Tuesday, 26 January 2010 that U.S. consumer confidence index rose to a 16-month high in January 2010. The report detailed that consumer confidence index rose to 55.9 in January from an upwardly revised 53.6 in December. Market was expecting a figure around 53.5. It's the highest reading since September 2008, when the financial crisis intensified. It was the third straight increase for consumer confidence.
Gold had ended FY 2009 higher by 24%. Silver futures had ended 2009 up 50%. The dollar index had lost 4.2% against its counterparts last year.
Crude ends lower
Prices recover from their intra day lows as consumer confidence improves
Crude oil prices dropped on Tuesday, 26 January 2010. Prices fell as traders mulled over China's tightening of the current monetary policies, which will lead to demand concerns for crude in coming months. Prices also fell in anticipation of buildup in crude and gasoline inventories for last week. But prices recovered from their intra day lows as consumer confidence data showed improvement for third straight time.
On Tuesday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for March delivery closed at $74.71/barrel (lower by $0.55 or 0.7%). During intra day trading, prices fell to a low of $73.82. Last week, crude ended lower by 4.7%. On a year to date basis till date, crude is lower by 7%.
Crude ended FY 2009 higher by 78%, the highest yearly gain since 1999. It reached a high of $82 earlier in October 2009 and hit a low of $33.98 on 12 February 2009. Oil prices had reached a high of $147 on 11 July, 2008 but have dropped almost 51% since then. Crude prices had ended FY 2008 lower by 54%, the largest yearly loss since trading began at Nymex.
The Conference Board reported on Tuesday, 26 January 2010 that U.S. consumer confidence index rose to a 16-month high in January 2010. The report detailed that consumer confidence index rose to 55.9 in January from an upwardly revised 53.6 in December. Market was expecting a figure around 53.5. It's the highest reading since September 2008, when the financial crisis intensified. It was the third straight increase for consumer confidence.
The Energy department will report the latest status on weekly inventory tomorrow. Market is expecting crude and gasoline stockpiles to show an increase of 2 million and 1.7 million barrels respectively.
Last week, in the latest report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said that world oil demand is forecast to grow by 800,000 barrels a day this year to average 85.1 million barrels a day, representing no major change from last month's forecast.
Paris based, IEA, left its forecasts for global oil demand for 2010 virtually unchanged in its latest monthly report last week. It forecasts demand of 86.3 million barrels a day in 2010, up 1.7%, or 1.4 million barrels a day higher than 2009.
Among other energy products on Tuesday, heating oil for February fell 1.5 cents to $1.95 a gallon. Also on Tuesday, natural gas for February slumped 23 cents to $5.49 per million British thermal units, hit by forecasts of warmer U.S. temperatures.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
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