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Monday, June 11, 2007

Vishal Retail IPO Analysis


Vishal Retail, promoted by first-generation entrepreneur Ram Chandra Agarwal and his wife Uma Agarwal, operated 50 stores including two franchisee stores end April 2007. These 50 stores are spread over about 12,82,000 square feet and are located in 39 cities across 18 states in India. To strengthen its supply chain, the company has set up seven regional distribution centers and an apparel manufacturing plant.

Following the concept of value retail in India, Vishal Retail sells quality goods at reasonable prices by either manufacturing themselves or procuring them from manufacturers (primarily from small- and medium-size vendors and manufacturers). The company targets middle and lower-middle income groups, which constitute a majority of the population in India. It sells ready-made apparels (including its own brands) and a wide range of household merchandise and other consumer goods such as footwear, toys, watches, toiletries, grocery items, sports items, crockery, gift and novelties. Apparel contributed 63% of the total sales in the year ending March 2007, followed by non-apparel (22%) and FMCG products (15%).

Of the 50 stores, Vishal Retail has 43 stores located in Tier II and Tier III cities. North India accounted for 62% of FY 2007 sales, east India 19%, west India 15% and south India 4%. The company has its own fleet of 41 trucks to transport and deliver the company’s products. Its one apparel manufacturing plant is located at Gurgoan in Haryana. To explore the possibility of another manufacturing facility, 7.24 acres of land has been acquired in Dehradun, Uttaranchal as well as a freehold interest in an 82,830 square-feet plot at Hubli in Dharwad, Karnataka.

In FY 2007, Vishal Retail increased its number of stores from 26 to 49. In FY 2008, it plans to open 22 more stores, taking the total to 72 stores, from the current 50 stores. The total estimated cost for these 22 stores is Rs 105.25 crore. Most of the 22 stores will be located in Tier III cities (18 stores) followed by Tier I cities (three stores) and Tier II cities (one store).

The average sales per sq ft was Rs 7023 in FY 2007, when the average retail space was 8,58,055 sq ft. This was slightly lower compared with the average sales per sq ft of Rs 7139 in FY 2006, when the average retail space was 4,04,017 sq ft. Like-to-like sales in FY 2007, which included the 13 stores that had been open for all the 12 months in two consecutive years, grew 12% to Rs 188.97 crore.

Vishal Retail has proposed raising Rs 110 crore through its IPO to fund its new stores. Out of this, the company is going to use Rs 104.151 crore to fund its 22 upcoming stores. The rest of the money will be used for issue expenses.

Strengths

  1. First-mover advantage in Tier III cities, where organised retailing is yet to make a significant mark. This will help in establishing brand and build customer loyalty before competition crops up.
  2. Well placed to exploit the growth potential in value retailing, expected to witness sustained and accelerated growth in India
  3. Backward integration and in-house manufacturing of part of the apparel products sold in stores give competitive advantage in terms of value and cost. Margin is generally 5-6% higher compared with other labels. Private label accounted for 10% of total sales in FY 2007.

Weaknesses

  1. Rajendra Kumar Agarwal, brother of the company’s promoters, runs a retail business in the eastern region under the brand, Vishal Garment, through an entity Aarkay Retail Pvt Ltd. This could cause conflict with Visha Retail’s business, creating confusion among customers and, consequently, affecting its operations in the eastern parts of the country.
  2. Negative cash flows from operating activities in four of the past five consecutive years due to bulging inventories. This has resulted in a debt-equity ratio at 1.92 end March 2007.
  3. Organised retailing is a highly competitive and crowded industry, which is competing with itself and with unorganised retail. Competition may become even fiercer once Reliance and Bharti-Wal Mart make their presence felt and others expand.

Valuation

Vishal Retail has set a price band of Rs 230 to Rs 270 per equity share of Rs 10 face value. At the lower band of Rs 230 per share, P/E would be 21.3 times the annualised EPS for FY 2007 on post-issue equity of Rs 23.11 crore.

At the upper price band of Rs 270 per share, P/E would be 24.1 times the annualised EPS in FY 2007 on post-issue equity of Rs 22.40 crore. It’s not proper to compare Vishal Retail with existing listed players like Pantaloon Retail, Shopper’s Stop and Trent (India), which enjoy P/E of around 90.4, 80.7 and 43.2, respectively, due to the different scale of operations and business models. Nevertheless, retail being a high growth industry, Vishal Retail can expect above 20 P/E.

Market snaps four-day losing streak


The market snapped its four days of declining trend, posting modest gains, in highly volatile trade today, 11 June 2007.

Prior to today’s rise, the BSe 30-share Sensex had slipped from 14,570.75 on 1 June to 14,063.81 on 8 June 2007, declining 507 points in four trading sessions.

The markets traded with a strong upward bias till mid-afternoon trade, but succumbed to selling pressure in late trading today.

The Sensex ended up 19.60 points to 14,083.41. It opened higher at 14,170.81 and surged to a high of 14,268.91, tracking firm global markets. However, it was not able to sustain the higher level and slipped to a low of 14,057.63 at the fag end of the trading session as heavy selling emerged.

The Sensex has strong support at 14,000 level.

The S&P CNX Nifty rose marginally by 0.60 points to 4,145.60

Volume was muted today, indicating that action might have shifted to the primary markets. The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 3484 crore.

As per reports, the institutional portion of property developer DLF's Rs 9625 crore (at the upper end of Rs 500 to Rs 550 price band) initial public offering (IPO) was fully subscribed within an hour of its opening on Monday, 11 June 2007. The IPO would constitute 10.27% of the fully diluted post-issue capital of the company.

The market breadth, which indicates the overall health of the market, turned negative on BSE after staying positive throughout the earlier part of the day as selling emerged for small and mid-cap shares later in the day. On BSE, 1,411 shares declined as compared to 1,169 that advanced, while 85 remained unchanged. In the morning session, the market breadth was much stronger with over 3 shares gaining for every loser.

As per provisional data, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 26.12 crore in equities today, 11 June 2007. Domestic institutions were net buyers to the tune of Rs 237 crore in equities today.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was down 0.43% to 6,129.48, while the BSE Small-Cap index lost 0.3% to 7,320.01

Among the Sensex pack, 16 declined while the rest advanced.

Bike maker Hero Honda jumped 3.24% to Rs 702.90 on 45,355 shares, and was the top gainer among Sensex pack. The stock along with other stocks from the auto pack had been languishing in the past few sessions on concerns of slowdown in sales.

Aluminium and copper major Hindalco Industries advanced for the fourth straight day, and was up 3.11% to Rs 162.60, on 25.22 lakh shares. The market has been rife with speculation since last week that Alcan may team up with Sterlite Industries to bid for Hindalco.

HDFC (up 1.66% to Rs 1779) and NTPC (up 0.94% to Rs 155.40) logged smart gains.

Shares from the FMCG space attracted fresh buying. The BSE FMCG Index gained 0.62% to 1,790.19, and was the top gainer among the sectoral indices on BSE. ITC (up 2.32% to Rs 154.20) and Godrej Consumer (up 3.79% to Rs 135.50), Nestle (up 1.36% to Rs 1155), and Marico (up 0.30% to Rs 56) edged higher.

IT stocks eased from their highs on profit booking. The BSE IT Index gained 0.6% at 5,015.10. Wipro (down 0.95% to Rs 542.50), Satyam Computers (down 0.46% to Rs 493) and TCS (down 0.27% to Rs 1217.50) edged lower after gaining smartly in the earlier part of the day. Infosys ended firm though. It gained 1.84% to Rs 1987.

The Indian rupee climbed on Monday, 11 June 2007, buoyed by large capital inflows slated for local equities and IPOs. In early trade, the rupee was quoted at 40.9850/9950 per dollar, up from 41.1150/1250 on Friday, 8 June 2007, when it had hit an intra-day low of 41.25 -- its lowest since 11 May 2007.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) advanced 0.60% to Rs 1670.10, on 6.80 lakh shares. The stock shrugged off reports that the selective bidding process adopted by RIL to arrive at a market determined price of $4.79 per million metricbtu (mmbtu) for the sale of natural gas from its D6 block in KG basin has drawn sharp criticism from major user ministries: power and fertilizers.

Among other heavyweights, State Bank of India (SBI) lost 1.23% to Rs 1340.10, while Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) was down 0.32% to Rs 862.

ICICI Bank declined 0.40% to Rs 900. As per reports, ICICI Bank's follow-on public issue in the range of Rs 10000-Rs 11000 crore, is likely to open in the third week of June 2007. The bank may receive Sebi's approval for its issue by the end of this week. It may be recalled that ICICI Bank had announced in late April 2007 that it plans to raise Rs 20000 crore of equity from domestic and overseas issue.

Grasim lost 2.39% to Rs 2335 on thin volumes of 17,113 shares, and was the top loser among the Sensex constituents.

Reliance Communications dipped 2.14% to Rs 505.15, while Reliance Energy slipped 0.93% to Rs 516.

Shares of real estate developers were in demand, buoyed by good response for DLF public issue. Unitech (up 0.41% to Rs 507.15), Ansal Infrastructures (up 2.63% to Rs 298.75), Akruti Nirman (up 1.91% to Rs 362) and Orbit Corporation (up 2.69% to Rs 237) posted gains.

GAIL (India) vaulted 5.47% to Rs 309.65 on reports that the state-run company is preparing to team up with mid-sized firms from Canada, the US, the UK and Australia to jointly bid for blocks proposed to be offered under the new exploration and licensing policy (NELP). The government is planning to offer 70 blocks, covering around three lakh square kilometres in the seventh round of NELP in August 2007.

Mastek flared up 4.69% to Rs 295.65 after it earmarked $45 million for acquisitions in the software space.

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) advanced 4.21% to Rs 273.75. It is said to be in talks with Total from France and Kuwait Petroleum to build a new $3 billion refinery in India instead of the planned expansion at its Vizag refinery.

Cinemax slipped 0.80% to Rs 156.95 after the company’s net profit fell 18.95% in the year ended March 2007 to Rs 7.27 crore compared with Rs 8.97 crore in FY 2006. Revenue jumped 62.84% to Rs 68.98 crore, from Rs 42.36 crore.

Carborundum Universal settled with marginal loss of 0.03% to Rs 155 after the abrasives maker agreed to acquire 84.14% of Russia's Volzhsky Abrasives Works. Carborundum Universal (CUMI) has entered into a memorandum of understanding to pick up 84.14% stake in Russia-based Volzhsky Abrasives Works. The deal is subject to necessary clearances, which are expected by July 2007. Volzhsky Abrasives Works (VAW) is the largest producer of silicon carbide abrasives in Russia, with an installed capacity of 65,000 tonnes a year. VAW also produces bonded abrasives and refractories. VAW’s sales in 2006 were about $54 million.

Elecon Engineering Company gained 2.70% to Rs 467.50 on reports of bagging a Rs 12.18-crore order to supply materialhandling equipment to JSW Steel. The report of the order-win hit the market during trading hours today, 11 June 2007.

Ansal Housing & Construction slumped 5% to Rs 221.40 despite bagging license for development of a residential project at Rewari in Haryana. The integrated township is strategically located close to Delhi - Jaipur highway.

Kalindee Rail Nirman (Engineers) fell 3.66% to Rs 216 on profit booking after spurting following the company bagging a contract worth Rs 90.95 crore from Delhi Metro for track-related work on 6 June 2007. The company will begin work for the second phase of the metro project in a month.

Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Company slipped 0.84% to Rs 554.50. There are reports that the company has appointed Australian architect Ross Bonthorne to draft a plan for its mill land in Mumbai that will be developed into residences, hotels, malls and office complexes. Bonthorne is associated with one of Europe’s largest shopping centres—Bluewater in Kent, the UK.

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals rose 1.23% to Rs 684 after the drug maker said on Monday, 11 June 2007, its board approved splitting each of its shares into two. The current face value of Glenmark shares is Rs 2. As per reports, Glenmark Pharma is in discussion with potential European partners for its asthma molecule Oglemilast, and with several global companies for two research molecules targeted at neuropathic pain, osteoarthritis, inflammatory and dental pain.

Tata Chemicals edged up 0.25% to Rs 240 on reports that it may divest part or all of its investments in other Tata group companies to part finance its medium-term expansion plans. The company’s investment in the equity of other firms promoted by the Tata group is estimated to be worth over Rs 1200 crore at current market prices.

Gujarat NRE Coke advanced 2.32% to Rs 59.50 after signing an agreement with first class Scandinavian owners to jointly buy two ships of 60,000 deadweight tonnes (dwt) each an a time-charter basis. The ships will be delivered from Japanese yards in 2011 and 2012 for ten year charters.

Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren jumped 2.58% to Rs 183.20 on bagging Rs 1,166-crore pipeline orders for the supply of line pipes overseas. The new orders have taken the company's pending order book position to approximately Rs 5,166 crore.

Most of Asian and European indices settled with gains. Japan's Nikkei 225 Average rose as investors bought Toyota Motor, Matsushita Electric Industrial and other blue chips after data showed the economy grew at a faster pace in the first quarter than originally thought. The Nikkei was up 0.31%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.52%. Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted (up 0.46%), and Singapore's Straits Times (up 1.54%) also gained.

China’s Shanghai Composite advanced 2.11% to 3,995.68

On Friday, 8 June 2007, the Dow Jones industrial average showed its biggest point gain in more than two months, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index crossed the 1,500 mark. Dow surged 157.66 points, or 1.19%, to 13,424.39. The S&P 500 advanced 16.95 points, or 1.14%, to 1,507.67. It was just last month that the index crossed above the 1,500 mark for the first time in nearly seven years. The Nasdaq composite index gained 32.16 points, or 1.27%, to 2,573.54.

Over the next few days, the progress of the July-September monsoon will hold key. The weather office said in April 2007 that this year’s monsoon was likely to be 95% of the long-term average, with a 5% margin of error. The annual monsoon is vital for India’s economic health as it is the main source of water for agriculture, which generates more than a fifth of the gross domestic product.

Oil prices rose today, 11 June 2007, after Iran's oil minister said OPEC has no plans to release more oil into the market ahead of its next policy meeting in September 2007. Light, sweet crude for July 2007 delivery gained 43 cents to $65.19 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. Brent crude for July delivery rose 22 cents to $68.82 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

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BREAKING NEWS: DLF IPO


DLF Fully subscribed in QIB

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Trading Calls


Buy HCL Tech with stop loss below Rs 340 for a target of Rs 357, 363 and 372. This is a day-trading recommendation.
Buy TCS with stop loss below Rs 1204 for a target of Rs 1232 and 1248. This is a day-trading recommendation

Buy Peninsula Land at Rs 550 with stop loss at Rs 540. This is a day-trading recommendation.
Short Sell Orchid Chemicals at Rs 250 with stop loss at Rs 253.50. This is a day-trading recommendation.

Buy ICSA India with stop loss of Rs 1040, (On Closing Basis), for a short-term target of Rs 1200(This target may be achieved within a month)
Buy SRF Ltd with stop loss of Rs 162, (On Closing Basis), for a short-term target of Rs 196. (This target may be achieved within a month)

Reliance Industries, ONGC, Infosys Technologies, Automobiles, Telecom, India Equity Strategy, India Economy


Reliance Industries

ONGC

Infosys Technologies

Automobiles

Telecom

India Equity Strategy

India Economy

Weekly Technical Analysis


Weekly Technical Analysis

Kotak - Crompton Greaves


Kotak - Crompton Greaves

Emkay - Thermax


Emkay - Thermax

Anand Rathi - Weekly Strategist


Anand Rathi - Weekly Strategist

IDBI Capital - Rain Calcining


IDBI Capital - Rain Calcining

Market to head higher


The market is expected to stay rise, after profit booking in the earlier three trading sessions (6 – 8 June 2007), as cues from global markets turned positive.

Asian stocks started the week on a upbeat note, with Japan's Nikkei 225 Average tracking higher as investors bought Toyota Motor, Matsushita Electric Industrial and other blue chips after data showed the economy grew at a faster pace in the first quarter than originally thought. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 155.02 points or 0.76% at 20,664.17. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.47% at 17,863.24. Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted (up 0.66% at 8,355.67), Singapore's Straits Times (up 1.25% at 3,535.21) also gained.

In Friday's session, 8 June 2007, the Dow Jones industrial average showed its biggest point gain in more than two months, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index crossed back above the 1,500 mark.

The Dow Jones surged 157.66 points, or 1.19%, to 13,424.39. Broader stock indicators also jumped. The S&P 500 advanced 16.95 points, or 1.14%, to 1,507.67. It was just last month that the index crossed above the 1,500 mark for the first time in nearly seven years. The Nasdaq composite index gained 32.16 points, or 1.27%, to 2,573.54.

The response to the DLF IPO, which opens next week, may dictate the trend, it being a large IPO. Reality major DLF is mopping up between Rs 8,750 crore and Rs 9,625 crore at the proposed price band of Rs 500 - Rs 550 per share. DLF IPO opens for subscription on Monday, 11 June 2007 and ends on Thursday, 14 June 2007.

Over the next few days, the progress of the July-September monsoon will hold key. The weather office said in April 2007 that this year’s monsoon was likely to be 95% of the long-term average, with a 5% margin of error. The annual monsoon is vital for India’s economic health as it is the main source of water for agriculture, which generates more than a fifth of the gross domestic product.

As per provisional figures, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 974.78 crore on 8 June 2007, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers worth Rs 739 crore on that day

Investsmart - Morning Call


Market Grape Wine :

In House :

Nifty at a support of 4125 & 4100 levels with resistance at 4177 , 4196 levels

Buy : HDFC Bank above 1102 target of 1145 s/l 1087

Buy : RIL target 1695 s/l 1648

Buy : MoserBaer in F&O above 457

Out House :

Markets at a support of 14014 & 13959 levels with resistance at 14253 & 14325 levels .

Buy : RIL & RCap

Buy : IFCI & IDBI

Buy : Praj & Pantaloon

Buy : Satyam & INFY

Buy : GujNre

Buy : Lupin & GlenMark

Buy : SBIN & DenaBnak

Buy : AsianElec & SKumar

Dark Horse : Praj , IFCI , GujNre , Glenmark , Skumar & Patni

Market may exhibit strong volatility


After witnessing a strong correction last week, the market is likely to remain uncertain on the back of a strong intra-day volatile moves. The crunch in the market can be witnessed as big IPO DLF hitting the market today followed by weakness across the global equity market due to rising interest rates. However, firm Asian indices in current trades may release some pressure from local indices in morning trades. Among the local indices, in the near term the Nifty could test 4180 on the upside while on the downside the index may get support at 4100. The Sensex is likely to get support at 13900 and may face resistance at 14300.

US indices rallied on Friday, with the Dow Jones gaining 158 points to close at 13424 after falling for three straight sessions and the Nasdaq to end 32 points higher at 2574.

Most of the Indian ADRs clocked decent gains but select floats ended with moderate losses. While Satyam and Wipro gained over 3% each Infosya, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, MTNL, Patni Computer and Rediff were up around 1-2% each. Among the laggards Dr Reddy's, Tata Motors and VSNL declined 0.25-1% each.

Crude oil tumbled more than $2 a barrel Friday, weakened by the stock market selloff earlier this week that raised doubts about energy demand and after a storm that halted exports from Oman lost power. While the Nymex light crude oil for July series falling by $2.17 at $64.76 per barrel. In the commodity space, the Comex gold for August delivery slumped $14.90 to settle at $650.30 a troy ounce.

Indiainfoline - Intraday Stock Ideas



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