Search Now

Recommendations

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

STRATEGY INPUTS FOR THE DAY


Good, flat, now what?

An unhurried sense of time is in itself a form of wealth.

We've had a good Monday, a flat Tuesday and perhaps some kind of Wednesday wear out is in the offing later in the day. There is no need to rush in and do something which you are not convinced off. Take your time to pick and choose carefully. Global cues indicate we are in for another volatile day. Stock indices in the US closed flat and Asian markets are marginally in the positive zone. Oil prices are hovering under the $62 per barrel mark. FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs3.5bn (provisional) in the cash segment yesterday. In the F&O segment, they pumped in Rs1.12bn. On Thursday, they were net buyers at Rs5.69bn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs463.2mn on the same day.

Going by these indicators, the market should open in the green. But, uncertainty ahead of Friday's Infosys results will keep the bulls on tenterhooks. With so much being made out of the rupee's appreciation and its impact on IT firms, a positive surprise from the likes of Infosys and TCS could change the short-term outlook for the market. What's more, even if the software majors' numbers are slightly disappointing, the market should hold up as negative expectations have already been built into the stock prices. The wild card will be Infosys' guidance.

And remember, the market is not just about IT companies. There is a broader market out there, which is driven more by factors such as inflation, interest rates, the health of the US economy, overheating in China, the yen carry trade and fund flows to emerging markets et al. Right now things are looking sanguine but be prepared for sudden jolts.

iGate Global has come out with its numbers for Q4FY07. Its net profit is at Rs22.6 crore vs Rs15.95 crore QoQ. Revenues are at Rs210.1 crore vs Rs210.7 crore Qoq. EPS is at around Rs16. Operating margins are reportedly on a higher side while the topline is lower than expected.

Mastek will announce its results today. Not much is expected out of the mid-cap software firms, as the focus remains on the heavyweights like Infosys and TCS. Nonetheless, a 1.7% gain in the rupee in the January-March quarter is likely to hit their margins.

US stocks finished barely changed on Tuesday, as investors remained cautious ahead of the start of the quarterly earnings season. But, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out gains for the eighth session in a row, its longest winning streak since 2003, buoyed by improved profit outlook for Intel and Exxon Mobil.

Energy shares rose to a record and accounted for 54% of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's sixth consecutive increase after oil prices rose for the first time in five days.

The Dow Jones added 4.71 points to 12,573.85. The S&P 500 rose 3.78 points, or 0.3%, to 1448.39, leaving it within 1 point of erasing all of its losses from the Feb. 27 global sell-off. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 8.43 points, or 0.3%, to 2477.61.

After the close, Dow component Alcoa reported higher quarterly earnings and revenue that topped estimates, jump starting the earnings period on a positive note. Shares gained more than 1.5% in extended-hours trading.

US light crude oil for May delivery rose 38 cents to settle at $61.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after slumping 4 percent Monday on fund selling and relief about the developments in Iran. The front-month contract was quoting nearly unchanged at $61.89 a barrel in extended trading in Asia.

COMEX gold for June delivery added $4.60 to settle at $681.50 an ounce. Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 4.72% from 4.75% late on Monday. In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the yen.

European stock markets advanced. In the first day of trading since the markets' four-day Easter break, the German DAX 30 closed up 0.9% at 7,166.67. The UK's FTSE 100 added 0.3% to 6,417.80, while the French CAC 40 gained 0.4% at 5,766.27. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index added 0.5% to 382.21.

Asian stocks rose for a third day on Wednesday. Samsung Electronics and AU Optronics gained after LG.Philips LCD reported a loss that was smaller than some analyst estimates. The Nikkei in Tokyo was up 14 points at 17,679 while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 20 points at 20,327. The Kospi in Seoul advanced 17 points to 1516 and the Straits Times in Singapore shed 3 points at 3419.

In the emerging market space, the Bovespa in Brazil was up 0.7% at 47,174 while the IPC index in Mexico was 0.4% down at 29,515 and the RTS index in Russia gained 0.7% at 1977.

HOW MARKET FARED

Volatile market ends flat

The markets after opening on a volatile mode managed to close flat in green. Technology and Banking stocks were the major losers. However, Metal, FMCG and oil refinery stocks bucked the negative trend aiding the key indices to close higher. Mid-Cap and small cap index outperformed against the frontline indices. Finally, the 30-share benchmark Sensex was flat at 13189. NSE Nifty was also flat at 3848. Satyam Computer, Infosys and Wipro were among the major losers however BPCL, Sun Pharma and HDFC were among the major gainers.

Indiabulls surged by over 12% to Rs502. Reports suggest that the securities broking firm has asked some of its employees to leave and shut some offices. The company denied any such development. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs530 and a low of Rs436 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,00,000 shares on NSE.

ABG Shipyard gained 1.8% to Rs362 after the company secured $139mn order from Essar Shipping unit. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs385 and a low of Rs351 and recorded volumes of over 9,00,000 shares on BSE.

Prism Cement was up 1.5% to Rs33 as reports stated that the company announced its Q3 result with net profit at Rs550mn and sales at Rs2.02bn up 21%. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs35 and a low of Rs33 and recorded volumes of over 24,00,000 shares on NSE.

Sesa Goa advanced by over 2.5% to Rs1756 amid an ongoing bidding war, where Arcelor Mittal still seems to be the frontrunner. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1799 and a low of Rs1720 and recorded volumes of over 7,00,000 shares on NSE.

Technology stocks were on the receiving end on back of profit booking. Index heavy weight led the fall Satyam Computer declined by over 3.5% to Rs445, Wipro slipped by 2.4% to Rs547 and Infosys dropped by 2.4% to Rs1998. MphasiS BFL and HCL Tech were the major losers among the Mid-Cap stocks.

Oil Refinery stocks were on the move crude oil slipped sharply. BPCL jumped by over 5% to Rs329, HPCL gained 1.8% to Rs258 and IOC added 2.5% to Rs405 as reports stated that the company may participate in a project to build a $7 billion refinery in Russia with the capacity to process up to 15mn metric tons of crude oil a year.

Steel stocks shined as reports stated that steel companies have raised HR coil prices by Rs1000 per tonne. JSW Steel surged by over 4.5% to Rs532, Essar Steel rose over 3% to Rs38, Tisco was up by 0.5% to Rs495 and Jindal Steel added 2.9% to Rs2485.

Auto stocks were a mixed bag. Tata Motors advanced by 2.6% to Rs721, Hero Honda edged higher by 0.2% to Rs640. However, Bajaj Auto dropped by 1.2% to Rs2270 and M&M was down 1% to Rs727

Market Watch

Insider Trades:

Sakthi Sugars Ltd: 1) Morgan Stanley & Co. International Ltd., A/c Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Mauritius Co. Ltd. 2) Morgan Stanley & Co. International Ltd., A/c Morgan Stanley Investment Mauritius Ltd has purchased from open market 418000 equity shares of Sakthi Sugars Ltd on 4th April, 2007.

Granules India Limited: 1) Morgan Stanley & Co. International Limited a/c Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Mauritius Co. Ltd. 2) Morgan Stanley & Co. International Limited A/C Morgan Stanley Investment Mauritius Ltd has purchased from open market 34946 equity shares of Granules India Limited on 5th April, 2007.

Market Volumes:

The turnover on NSE was up by 34% to Rs84.41bn. BSE FMCG index was the major gainer and gained 2.18%. BSE Metal index (up 1.07%), BSE PSU index (up 0.38%) and BSE Consumer Durable index (up 0.34%) were among the other major gainers. However, BSE Technology index lost 1.07%.

Volume Toppers:

IFCI, Indiabulls, SAIL, IB Real Estate, SRF, Tata Steel, R Com, ITC, IDFC, Nagarjuna Fertilizers, Gujarat Ambuja, NTPC, Satyam Computer, Bank of India, JP Hydro, India Cement, Page Industries, Indian Hotels, Gitanjali Gems and Ashok Leyland

Upper Circuit:

Marksons, Teledata Informatics, TV Today, India Infoline, PBA Infrastructure, Vyapar Industries, Shree Precoated, Garware Offshore, Goldiam International, Marg Construction and Atlanta

Abnormal Delivery:

Tata Tea, Andhra Bank, Colgate-Palmolive, Indian Hotels, BEL, GAIL, Ranbaxy Laboratories, Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd, Tata Power, Bajaj Auto and ACC.

Delivery Delight:

3i Infotech, Adlabs Films, Arvind Mills, Bank of India, Bharati Shipyard, Gateway Distriparks, Federal Bank, Industrial Development Bank Of India, ITC, Jaiprakash Associates, Moser Baer, Tata Motors, TV TODAY and VSNL.

Stock Futures with Largest Increases in OI:

Indian Bank, Jet Airways, strides Arcolab, BEL, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Satyam Computers, IVRCL Infra, NDTV and Aban Offshore

Stock Futures with Largest Decreases in OI:

Crompton Greaves, Bank of India, Srf, Chennai Petroleum, PFC, United Spirits, GMR Infra, VSNl, Gujarat Alkalies and Tata Motors.

Brokers Recommendations:

Reliance Comm – Outperform from CLSA with target of Rs486

Mphasis BFL – Buy from Man Financial with target of Rs390

Long Term investment:
Reliance Petroleum Ltd.

Major News Headlines

Jet to acquire Air Sahara at around Rs19.5bn

ICICI Bank fined by Hong Kong Regulator for license breach

Steel companies raises HR coil prices by Rs1000 per ton – Reports

Tata Steel to meet on April 17 to consider fund raising plans for Corus acquisition

i-flex solutions gets order from allied Irish Bank

ABG Shipyard wins $139mn order from Essar Shipping unit

Subhash Projects gets orders worth Rs3.09bn

Suzlon raises bid for REpower to 150 Euros and gets order for turbine generators from US.





Citigroup - Jet Airways


Jet Airways - TARGET - 390

Upmove may continue


The Dow industrials recording the gains for an eighth straight session on Tuesday, the longest winning streak in four years and firm Asian indices in the morning trades may help the market to open in the green. Major Asian indices like Nikkei, Hang Seng, Kospi and Jakarta Composite are trading with the marginal gains. On the upside, the Nifty could test the recent high around the 3900 level and may witness support around the 3775 level. The Sensex has a likely support at 13050 and may test higher levels of 13250.

In the US markets, the broader Dow Jones scaled up by five points at 12574, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq moved up by eight points to close at 2476.

Indian floats also gained on the US bourses. Tata Motors was the major gainer and rose 1.57% while Wipro, Patni, Rediff, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and ended with steady gains. Among the laggards Infosysys, Satyam , Dr Reddys's and MTNL were slightly down.

Crude oil prices in the global market rose yesterday. The Nymex light crude oil for May series gained 38 cents at $61.89 per barrel. In the commodity segment, the Comex gold for June delivery jumped $4.60 to settle at $681.50 an ounce.

Anand Rathi - Daily Technical Note & Anand Rathi Daily Strategist


Nifty and Sensex have exhibited narrow candlesticks.

Technically, one may use the level of 3745 (Nifty) and 12900 (Sensex) as the stop loss level.

Nifty faces resistance at 3900 and Sensex at 13400.

BSE Smallcap and BSE Midcap Indices have exhibited a bullish candlestick.

CNX IT has lost ground.

In the Punter's zone we have a buy in Mind Tree , Biocon & Reliance Industries.

In the technical zone we have a buy in Indian Hotels , Balaji Tele & Torrent Power.

Download here


The NIFTY futures saw a decrease in OI 1.23% with prices closing up as expected indicating that lot of shorts positions were cut. The discount in nifty futures decreased indicating that bears aggressively covered & the bulls got them cornered .We feel that till the market sustains above 3750 levels we see aggressive short covering and fresh money coming in the market only after the first major result shall set the trend .The FIIs were buyers in futures to the tune of 112 crores of which they bought nifty futures alone to the tune of 114crs and sold options worth 59.54 crs .The PCR is in a range of 00.97 indicating the trend in the market. .The volatility has remained in the range of 26.50 levels indicating the feel in the market.

Among the Big guns, ONGC saw a gain of 4.17 OI with prices going up by 0.34% indicating that fresh longs being built in the counter along with fresh genuine buying while RELIANCE lost OI and the price was unchanged.

On the TECH front, INFOSYSTCH, SATYAM, TCS & WIPRO saw decrease in prices showing weakness in the markets, and forced long positions to sell with some fresh shorts formed there. This may be the results taken into account by players.

On the other hand the BANKING counters saw open interest gaining with loss in value. Also we saw the genuine selling coming in P.S.U banks like S.B.I & P.N.B and across the board prices loosing value in the sector .The rest like ICICI BANK & HDFC BANK saw short positions being built and fresh bull liquidations.

In the METALS there was a mixed bag with some gaining and the others loosing value clearly indicating the un-clear feeling there in the sector?

Considering the market data, it suggests the most awaited expected trend has shall only happen after the INFOSYS result and finally set the decorum in the week for the settlement and the new financial year , for the same it is advisable to traders to have strict stop losses.

Download here

Market may see stock-specific activity


Select side counter surged on Tuesday (10 April) even as Sensex ended little changed on that day. If this is any indication, stock specific activity has started based on Q4 results expectations.

Overall Q4 results are expected to be strong. More important that Q4 results is what the company managements say about the outlook for the current financial year (FY 2008). Citigroup expects overall corporate earnings growth to moderate to 15-16 percent in the current and next year, while FY 2007 (year ended 31 March 2007) could be the fifth straight year of 25-30 percent earnings growth.

IT bellwether Infosys kickstarts the earnings season on Friday 13 April. The rupee’s sharp surge in late-March 2007 - early April 2007 against the US dollar and mixed reports from the US economy, have raised concerns that the FY 2008 guidance by Infosys may turn out conservative. Infosys unveils full year guidance at the beginning of the financial year along with Q4 March results.

Firm global markets and FII inflow may keep domestic bourses firm in the near term. Asian stocks edged higher on Wednesday (11 April), with Seoul hitting a record high for the sixth straight session, but Tokyo's Nikkei lagged gainers after weak Japanese manufacturing data cast doubt on capital spending. Nikkei was up 0.08%. The data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan will not be in a hurry to raise rates.

Other Asian stock markets were encouraged by gains on Wall Street. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, China, South Korea and Singapore were up by between 0.06% to 1.1%.

US stocks edged higher on Tuesday (10 April) as a rebound in oil prices lifted energy shares and Citigroup gained on expectations of big job cuts. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 4.71 points, or 0.04 percent, to end at 12,573.85. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 3.78 points, or 0.26 percent, to 1,448.39. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 8.43 points, or 0.34 percent, to 2,477.61.

FIIs have resumed buying ahead of the corporate earnings season. They were net buyers to the tune of Rs 569.40 crore on Monday (9 April), the day when Sensex had surged 322 points on firm global bourses. They were net buyers to the tune of Rs 567.50 crore on 5 April. As per provisional data, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 350 crore on Tuesday 10 April, the day when Sensex had gained 12 points.

FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 114 crore in index-based futures on Tuesday. They were net buyers to the tune of Rs 60 crore in individual stock futures on that day.

Oil prices steadied on Wednesday after gains on Tuesday as investors turned attention to Iran's nuclear activities and dwindling gasoline stocks in the United States, the top consumer. US crude for May delivery was down 2 cents at $61.87 a barrel.

US Market closes higher for straight eighth session

Dow's 8 day winning streak could have been snapped if not for 1.6% and 1% rise in Exxon Mobil and Citigroup shares

US Market posted its first eight-straight day gains in current year on Tuesday. While Dow was up for the 8th consecutive day, S&P 500 was up for the 6th consecutive day. Dow recorded its longest winning streak since March 2003. With a lack of corporate news and scheduled economic data, a sense of caution prevailed among investors that typically precede the start of earnings season. But market gains were modest at the day’s close. But Dow's streak would have been snapped if not for 1.6% and 1% rise in Exxon Mobil and Citigroup shares respectively.

Among the nine sectors finishing in positive territory, Energy was the only one posting a respectable gain though its 1.4% advance was mainly due to a rebound in oil prices.

17 out of 30 stocks closed higher on Tuesday. For the day (10 April, Tuesday) the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher by 4.71 points at 12573.85, Nasdaq higher by 8.43 points at 2477.61 and S&P 500 higher by 3.78 points at 1448.39. Exxon Mobil, Citigroup, Intel and Boeing were the main Dow winners while H-P, United Technologies, Wal-Mart and Du-Pont were the main Dow losers.

With this continuous 8 days of winning streak, Dow is up by 0.9% for 2007. Nasdaq is up by 2.6% and S&P 500 is up by 2.1%.

Among blue chips, Alcoa rose 0.09% before its results after the close. Alcoa was the best performing Dow component during the first quarter. Alcoa is up more than 16% so far in 2007 and tops among the 30 Dow stocks. Citigroup rose 1.6% ahead of a presentation tomorrow on job cuts. The New York Times reported that the bank will cut or reassign 26,000 positions.

Warning from Seagate Technologies leaves investors questioning Tech sector’s growth prospects

When market opened in the morning, stocks opened with little fanfare. Of the six sectors trading higher, Energy was the only one posting a respectable gain; but its modest 0.5% advance was also at the expense of rising oil prices. Absence of leadership from the influential Tech sector minimized market gains.

But within an hour of trading, market improved its stance and the same came from a turnaround in Technology. It was fueled primarily by several analyst upgrades (Oracle).

However, Seagate Technology warning that Q3 revenue will miss forecasts left investors questioning the Tech sector’s growth prospects. Tech is expected to be one of the S&P 500's biggest earnings drivers this year. A 37% drop in Q2 net sales orders at D.R. Horton also imparted some sort of nervousness among investors. Seagate Tech shares fell 6.2% to $22.

After witnessing their biggest slide in 3 months yesterday, crude futures gained marginally today. Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for May delivery closed at $61.89/barrel (higher by $0.38/barrel or 0.62%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude prices were mainly pulled up higher today by gasoline prices, on speculation that the weekly government report tomorrow will show U.S. gasoline stockpiles declined for a ninth week. A surge in natural-gas futures, which followed comments from the U.S. Department of Energy that demand would remain strong through the summer, also boosted energy prices.

In the broad market for equities, there were 1.331 billion shares exchanging hands on the New York Stock Exchange and 1.867 billion trading on the Nasdaq stock market. Advancing issues outpaced decliners by 5 to 3 on the NYSE and by 16 to 13 on the Nasdaq.

After the close, Alcoa came out with its earnings report beating Wall Street estimates with a 9% earnings gain. The company earned 79 cents a share after excluding restructuring charges as against Wall Street’s expectations of 77 cents a share. Revenue was up 11% to $7.9 billion. Earnings were driven by higher metal prices and sales in the aerospace, building and construction and industrial product markets.

Anagram - Daily Call & Emkay - Morning Notes - Amtek Auto


Anagram - Daily Call

Emkay - Morning Notes + Amtek Auto

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Motilal Oswal - Derivatives, Daily Margin, Corporate News, Market Diary, Market Action - Apr 11


Download here

Citigroup - Jaiprakash Associates, Fun with Flows, India Economics - SEZ Review


Citigroup - Fun with Flows

Citigroup - Jaiprakash Associates
Citigroup - India Economics - SEZ Update – Positives outweigh the negatives

Close: Markets take a breather !


Sluggish trading for the day after a strong opening summarises market action. Markets were choppy with every progressive hour as selling conitnued which pushed Indices to trade in negative territory. Fresh buying helped indian indices to recovery earlier losses made in the day. Sliding crude prices fuelled the rally in Energy stocks which closed up. Selective small and mid caps were in demand as investors to book profits. Japan has kept interest rates unchanged. The European indices were supportive after starting in green and continued to trade in the positive territory.

Sensex closed up 5 points at 13182. It was helped up by gains in HDFC (1615,+4 percent), ITC (159.80,+2.8 percent), HLL (209.,+2.6 percent), Tata Motors (718.50+2 percent) and HDFC Bank (992.05,+2 percent). Restricting the gains were Satyam (445.80,-3.5 percent), Wipro (547,-2.6 percent), Infosys (2000,-2 percent), Dr Reddy (716,-1.8 percent) and L&T (1573,-1.5 percent)

Tata motors plans to distribute its trucks through the Italian company Iveco's worldwide distribution network. Tata trucks including the highly successful one tonne Ace will be available through Iveco's sales network in markets like Brazil, Argentina, Russia and other markets where the Indian manufacturer has no significant presence. Tata will also get to use Iveco's established service network in these markets. In return, Iveco will bring its highly successful range of light commercial vehicles and market them through Tata's domestic network. These vehicles are likely to be assembled in the country, though plans have not been firmed up yet. Iveco will also be an engine supplier for the higher end models that Tatas are planning to launch in the next few years.

Educomp Solutions was in demand as the company not only acquired 76% stake in ThreeBrix E-Services Pvt Ltd which owns "The Learning Hour" tutoring service but also bagged an order from Govt of Haryana, for imparting CAL Programme in 716 Govt. Senior Secondary Schools in State of Haryana. The total order size is of Rs 18.30 Crores and over a period of 3 years. The story is interesting here we have a detailed note here. Educomp opened up to get locked up in circuit before closing 4% up. we also have our Wow cals on Educomp which has so far delivered 20% gains in just two weeks.

Bajaj was down by a percent after it announced a reduction in price by Rs. 3000 on its Platina model. Bajaj Platina will now be available at Rs 33,000 (ex-showroom). The price cut was announced by the company after it inaugurated its plant in Uttarakhand yesterday which has the capacity to manufacture a million bikes. Company intends to take on its arch rival Hero Honda head on by reducing the price. Competition is increasing in this segment. Hero Honda and TVS will also start production in the excise free zones and they will cut prices too. We wonder why Bajaj has guided for 10% growth this year.

Technically Speaking: Market churned Rs 4,185 cr. Sensex faces resistance at 13,200-13,400 range which was a major selling area for the bears in the last 2 months. Immediate support lies at 13075 below which the bears are likely to dominate upto 12,825 levels. Overall breadth favored Advances.

Sharekhan Investor's Eye dated April 10, 2007


PULSE TRACK

  • Infrastructure Index up 7.2% for February 2007


STOCK UPDATE

New Delhi Television
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs375
Current market price: Rs330

Price target revised to Rs375
With funding tie-ups in place for its much-awaited entry into the general entertainment space New Delhi Television (NDTV) is all set for the big bang launch of its general entertainment channel (GEC) by the end of the year. NDTV Imagine, the subsidiary that would house the entertainment venture, has roped in Sameer Nair, the ex-CEO Star India who is believed to be the best programming brain in Indian general entertainment business, to make NDTV Imagine a success. Mr Nair's entry follows Karan Johar's new association with NDTV's GEC as a creative consultant and an ambassador for the NDTV brand. Mr Johar is on the board of NDTV Imagine with his production house Dharma Productions having a stake in the company.

Download here

Sharekhan Eagle Eye & Daring Derivatives


Sharekhan Eagle Eye (equities) & Derivatives Info Kit for April 11, 2007
Sharekhan Daring Derivatives for April 11, 2007

Market ends flat


The Sensex took a breather as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the corporate results season that begins this week. The Sensex has gained almost 700 points in the last four sessions on the back of firm international markets. However the market was range-bound through the day. The Sensex resumed 58 points higher at 13236, but eased amid volatile moves on selling in heavyweight and information technology stocks in the afternoon and touched the day's low at 13075. Some late buying at lower levels saw the Sensex shed its losses and close the session on a positive note with marginal gains. The Sensex closed at 13190, up 12 points, while the Nifty gained five points and closed at 3848.

The breadth of the market was positive. Of the 2,649 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,575 stocks advanced, 1,006 stocks declined and 68 stocks ended unchanged. Among the sectoral indices the BSE FMCG Index advanced 2.18% at 1813 followed by the BSE Metal Index (up 1.07% at 9000). However, the BSE IT Index and the BSE Teck Index closed in negative territory.

Select blue chips notched up significant gains. HDFC rose 3.38% at Rs1,608, ITC advanced 2.90% at Rs159, HLL climbed 2.55% at Rs209, Tata Motors surged 2.44% at Rs721, HDFC Bank gained 2.05% at Rs992, Ranbaxy added 1.91% at Rs358, Grasim jumped 1.85% at Rs2,236, BHEL advanced 1.59% at Rs2,463 and ONGC was up 0.79% at Rs874. Among the laggards Satyam Computers tumbled 3.53% at Rs445, Wipro slipped 2.41% at Rs548 and Infosys dropped 2.25% at Rs1,998. TCS, Dr Reddy's, Bajaj Auto, NTPC, L&T, Cipla and Reliance Energy ended with marginal losses.

Fast moving consumer goods stocks were in the limelight. Godrej Consumer Products soared 4.16% at Rs156, Bata India jumped 3.53% at Rs148, United Spirits gained 2.29% at Rs846, Colgate advanced 1.62% at Rs345 and Proctor & Gamble was up 1.22% at Rs786. Glaxo, Britannia and Dabur India ended with marginal gains.

Over 1.87 crore IFCI shares changed hands on the BSE followed by India Bulls (96.25 lakh shares), India Bulls Real Estate (78.79 lakh shares), Tele Data India (39.61 lakh shares) and Himachal Futuristic (35.88 lakh shares).

Value-wise India Bulls registered a turnover of Rs479 crore on the BSE followed by India Bulls Real Estate (Rs221 crore), Tata Steel (Rs167 crore), Mind Tree (Rs146 crore) and Tata Motors (Rs92 crore).

Turnover swells on rampant block deals


The market was highly volatile throughout the day. A whopping turnover was another marked feature of the day's trading. The aggregate turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 4190.71 crore, as compared to Rs 3093 crore on Monday (9 April). The high turnover is attributed to a series of block deals executed in a number of stocks.

The markets settled with gains, as fresh buying happened at the fag end of trading. Strength was seen in FMCG and metal stocks, while IT and banking stocks dragged the market lower.

The 30-share BSE Sensex gained 11.80 points, to settle at 13,189.54. It had opened firm, at 13,185.85, and struck a high of 13,222.14. The benchmark index also fell to a low of 13,075.48, in the afternoon session. The NSE Nifty gained 4.65 points (0.12%), at 3,848.15.

As per provisional figures, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 350 crore today.

Even as the market flattened out, its breadth remained firm. Buying kept happening in small-cap and midcap stocks. Against 1,539 advancing, 1015 had declined. Also, 76 scrips remained unchanged.

The BSE Mid-Cap Index ended at 5461.51, up 42 points (0.77%), while the BSE Small-Cap Index settled at 6656.74, a gain of 71 points (1.08%).

Among the 30-Sensex pack, 18 advanced while the rest declined.

Housing finance major HDFC was the top-gainer, up 3.83% to Rs 1615, on a volume of 1.15 lakh shares.

Tata Motors advanced 2.15% to Rs 718.50, on total volumes of 13 lakh shares. Four block deals of 2.53 lakh shares were struck in the counter for an average Rs 708.37 per share. Tata Motors, which had signed an agreement with Iveco in February, is planning to distribute its trucks through the Italian company's worldwide distribution network. As a reciprocal arrangement, dealers of Tata Motors will sell select Iveco models, especially their light commercial vehicles in India. Reports say that though a definite agreement is still a few months away, in principle, the mutual marketing arrangement will be in place shortly. "In the last fiscal, we sold 1500 Fiat branded cars and this year we hope to sell more than 3000 cars through our distribution network," said Mudit Gupta, senior manager (passenger car unit), Tata Motors.

The BSE FMCG Index gained 2.2%, to settle at 1,812.72. Cigarette major ITC gained 2.86% to Rs 159.80, while FMCG major HLL advanced 2.63% to Rs 209.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) was down 0.13% to Rs 1382, as 3.23 lakh shares changed hands in the counter on BSE.

Frontline IT stocks were in correction mode ahead of their March quarter results. The BSE IT Index had slipped 2.07%, and was the biggest loser among sectoral indices on BSE.

Satyam Computers was the top-loser, down 3.40% to Rs 445.95, on a volume of 6.83 lakh shares. Infosys (down 2.15% to Rs 2000), Wipro (down 2.63% to Rs 547) and TCS (down 1.50% to Rs 1198) also suffered under concerns pertaining to results.

Infosys’ FY 2008 guidance is the next major trigger for the market. The rupee’s sharp surge in late-March 2007 - early April 2007, an uncertain US economic outlook and certain client-specific risks, have raised concerns that the FY 2008 guidance by Infosys Technologies may turn out conservative. Infosys unveils the full year guidance at the beginning of the financial year along with Q4 March 2007 results, on Friday, 13 April 2007.

For Q4 March 2007, Infosys has given a guidance of income to be in the range of Rs 3789 crore and Rs 3798 crore; indicating a Y-o-Y growth of 44.4% - 44.7%. The EPS is expected to be Rs 17.88; showing Y-o-Y growth of 46.3%.

For the full year ending March 2007, Infosys’ income is expected to be in the range of Rs 13,910 crore and Rs 13,919 crore; Y-o-Y growth of 46.1% - 46.2%. EPS before exceptional items is expected to be Rs 66.63, a Y-o-Y growth of 48%.

Since 2001, when the practice of coming out with a guidance started, Infosys has disappointed every alternate year on that front. And in five of the last six times, Infosys' stock and the broader market have declined on the results' day (or in the first trading session after results, in case the markets were closed) - no matter what the guidance.

The sole exception was 14 April 2006, when Infosys beat street estimates by guiding revenue growth of 30.7% and EPS growth of 28.4% for the last financial year. But on that Friday, the market was closed for Ambedkar Jayanti. When they opened on Monday, 17 April 2007, the Infosys stock zoomed 6.93%, and the Sensex ended with a gain of 302 points (2.69%).

Another IT major, Satyam Computer’s guidance for Q4 March 2007 suggests that revenues will be in the range of Rs 1,728 and 1,736 crore, a growth 4 - 4.5% over Q3. For FY-2007, revenues are expected to be in the range of Rs 6434 - Rs 6442 crore, a growth of 34.3 -34.4% over FY-2006.

Bajaj Auto slipped 1% to Rs 2275. The bike maker announced a Rs 3000 price cut on Bajaj Platina, given the intense competition in the 100cc space. The Platina may be Bajaj Auto's last 100cc bike but still remains a large volume player. This has become possible, thanks to the opening of Bajaj Auto's new plant at Pantnagar, Uttarakhand. The plant enjoys tax-cuts and excise-sops from the state government. It has 1 million units of annual capacity, which can be scaled up to 3 million in a few years.

Indian Hotels surged 3.35% to Rs 149.75, on high volumes of 23.53 lakh shares, after a block deal of 20 lakh shares was executed in the counter at Rs 148 per share.

Shares from the metal pack, saw fresh buying after reports that steel companies have hiked Hot Rolled (HR) coil prices by Rs 1000 per tonne. The BSE Metal Index closed at 9000.01, up 1%. JSW Steel (up 5% to Rs 534.40), Tata Steel (up 0.66% to Rs 469.55), Jindal Stainless (up 2.70% to Rs 127.50), Sesa Goa (up 2.40% to Rs 1757), Jindal Steel & Power (up 2.54% to Rs 2489) and Hindustan Zinc (up 1.74% to Rs 679.35) edged higher.

Everest Kanto Cylinder surged 11.64% to Rs 974.30, on renewed buying, due to strong growth prospects for the firm. Everest Kanto Cylinder is on a major expansion spree to cater to the lucrative Chinese market even though its China project has been delayed. The company is setting up a plant in China, having an initial annual capacity of 2 lakh cylinders. The project is slated to start production in the third quarter of the current financial year. The plant was earlier scheduled to begin production by July 2007.

Educomp Solutions rose 2.85% to Rs 1208, after acquiring 76% stake in ThreeBrix E-Services, a high-quality tutoring service provider in the Middle East. ThreeBrix e-Services owns "The Learning Hour" tutoring service and was started in 2005. The acquired company provides high quality tutoring service in the Middle East and Dubai markets. The partnership between the company and ThreeBrix will leverage the company's large content library and pedagogical materials, to provide tutoring in several ways, online, offline and through learning centers, and will mainly focus on Indian students.

ABG Shipyard surged for the second day in a row on the eve of the scrip’s listing on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). The stock of ABG Shipyard was up 2.50% to Rs 364. ABG Shipyard also secured a major order for constructing four 54,000 DWT Supramax bulk carriers, worth $ 139 million (Rs 618 crore) from Essar Shipping & Logistics, Cyprus, as a part of its ship acquisition programme. Following the order, the order-book position of ABG Shipyard, as on date, stands at about Rs 40,737.7 Mio (US$ 915.5 Mio).

Suzlon Energy dropped 0.13% to Rs 986, on concerns of a bidding war, for acquiring Germany's REpower. The stock had slipped to a low of Rs 961.05. Suzlon Energy has raised the bid for acquiring the German wind-turbine maker. Suzlon Energy today said it had acquired 6,27,000 shares, constituting 7.7% of the share capital of REpower at a price of up to Euro 150 per share. As a result of this acquisition, the voluntary offer for acquiring up to 100% stake in Repower stands revised upwards, to Euro 150 per share.

Balaji Telefilms jumped 11.3% to Rs 142.15, on reports that NDTV was in talks with television content providers, including Balaji Telefilms, for content. NDTV is negotiating with production houses for entertainment-related content to be aired on their upcoming channel, NDTV Imagine.

Moser Baer vaulted 10.4% to Rs 332.70, on renewed buying. It ushered in Telugu films in the home video market, with the launch of 101 popular Telugu titles on 7 April 2007.

iGate Global Solutions soared 5.6% to Rs 402.55. The stock surged for the second day in a row on expectation of strong FY 2007 (year ended 31 March 2007) results. iGate’s board meets tomorrow to consider FY 2007 results.

Construction firm Subhash Projects & Marketing jumped 5% to Rs 193, on bagging orders worth Rs 309 crore for various power projects in Karnataka.

The Nikkei Average fell 0.45% on Tuesday, after US stocks failed to rise despite a strong jobs data, prompting investors to sell recent gainers such as Advantest Corp after the benchmark logged its highest close in nearly six weeks in the previous session. The Nikkei 225 index was trading down 79.07 points, at 17,664.69. On Monday, the benchmark booked its highest closing since 27 February 2007.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up 138.16 points (0.68%), to 20,347.87.

Oil prices bounced back slightly on Tuesday, as Asian traders reacted to a slide the day before pulling prices down by $3. Light, sweet crude for May delivery rose 30 cents to $61.81 in mid-morning Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

US stocks closed flat on Monday (9 April), as news that billionaire investor Warren Buffett had purchased stakes in the railroad sector and strong jobs data offset worries about earnings and subprime loans. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 8.94 points, or 0.07%, to end at 12,569.14. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 0.85 of a point, or 0.06%, to finish at 1,444.61. But the Nasdaq Composite Index dipped 2.16 points, or 0.09%, to close at 2469.18.

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged for a second month after consumer prices fell and recent data signaled US economic growth may slow. Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his policy board colleagues voted unanimously to hold the key overnight lending rate at 0.5%, the lowest among major economies, the bank said in a statement today in Tokyo.

Sharekhan Reports


Sharekhan Derivatives Info Kit dated April 10, 2007
Sharekhan Commodities Buzz dated April 10, 2007
Sharekhan Highnoon dated April 10, 2007

ENAM - Banking Sector - NIMS - Where are they headed?


Download here