Info Edge (India) IPO

Info Edge (India), promoted by Sanjeev Bikhchandani, Hitesh Oberoi and Ambarish Raghuvanshi, is a leading provider of online recruitment and matrimonial classified and related services in India. It launched Naukri.com, an online recruitment classified website, in March 1997; acquired Jeevansathi.com, an online matrimonial classified website, in September 2004; launched 99acres.com, an online real estate classified website, in September 2005; and acquired Quandrangle, an offline executive search engine, in November 2000.

With a network of 45 offices in 30 cities in India as well as an office in Dubai, which primarily engage in sales, marketing and payment collection activities, Info Edge (India) has two subsidiaries, Naukri Internet Services Pvt Ltd and Jeevansathi Internet Services Pvt Ltd, which own internet domain names and related trademarks used in the business.

From the net proceeds of the issue Rs 20 crore are to be used for diversification and expansion into new markets, Rs 25 crore on enhancing its products, Rs 25 crore on developing alternate delivery models for its products, Rs 30 crore to purchase/lease real estate for its offices, Rs 30 crore on acquiring other companies and businesses, and Rs 25 crore to develop 99acres.com and Jeevansathi.com.

Strengths

• As per a study by Businessworld, about 10% of the job market has already moved online. The size of the online recruitment industry is estimated to be Rs 135 crore with a 35% growth rate last year. The service sector has a significantly higher employee turnover. Nasscom has estimated telecom, media, retail and IT&ITES to grow at a CAGR of 11.4%, 16.7%, 30% and 23.1% in FY 2005, FY 2006, FY 2007, FY 2008, respectively, generating recruitment requirements at much higher multiple. Moreover these sectors are more receptive to online recruiting.

• India has one of the lowest Internet penetration in the world. Internet users have grown at a CAGR of 68%, from 6.67 million in 2001 to 52.88 million in 2005. Despite the tremendous growth seen over the years, there is still a lot of potential to grow. Also, India has witnessed increase in urbanisation and literacy rates, and this trend is likely to continue.

• The online advertising market has grown from Rs 42 crore in FY 2004 to Rs 107 crore in FY 2005. This is expected to grow to Rs 162 crore in FY 2006 and reach Rs 218 crore in FY 2007 (Source: Internet and Mobile Association of India, IAMAI). The share of online advertising is still only about 2% of media advertising industry.

• Info Edge (India) has well-recognized and strong brand names. Naukri.com is currently India’s number one website for online recruitment services and Jeevansathi.com is presently India’s number three website for online matrimonial classified services in terms of number of unique visitors to the website, as per data provided by Comscore.

Weaknesses

• The online classified industry in India is highly competitive and the competition in this industry will continue to increase. The key competitors for Naukri.com and Quandrangle will be Monsterindia.com, Jobsahead.com and Timesjobs.com. Similarly, for Jeevansathi.com, the competition will be from Bharatmatrimony.com and Shaadi.com and the more traditional brick and mortar marriage bureaus and match making services. 99acres.com faces competition from the print media and some other Internet-based providers. Info Edge (India) competes indirectly with Yahoo and Google.

• Info Edge (India) is currently over-dependant on only recruitment services. Naukri.com contributed 93.47% (94.6% in FY 2006) of the operating revenue in the quarter ended June 2006. Other services and the planned entry into new businesses will require substantial investment of money and management time with the attendant risks of losses and failures.

Valuation

From FY 2003 to FY 2006, the operating revenue of Info Edge (India) has grown at a CAGR of 110%, though a significant profit was made only in FY 2006.

The quarterly annualised EPS in the quarter ended June 2006 on post-issue equity works out to be Rs 7.7. At the price band of Rs 290 – 320, PE is 37.6 to 41.5.

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Info Edge (India): Invest at cut-off

Investors with a high-risk appetite can consider taking an exposure in the book-built initial public offering of Info Edge (India).

The price band for the IPO has been fixed at Rs 290-320 per share.

For investors aiming to broad base their overall portfolio, `online classifieds' (for recruitment, marriage or real estate among others) opens up another avenue from an investment standpoint.

Info Edge that operates naukri.com (the premier job recruitment site), Jeevansathi.com (matrimonial site) and 99acres.com (real estate) represents an early stage of investment whose success depends on innovation/customisation of services, brand recall and corporate online budgets. This is also evident from the five per cent exposure taken by Murugan Capital (100 per cent subsidiary of the US-based private equity investor, Kleiner Perkins, Caufield and Byers) and Sherpalo Mauritius in the company at $5.495 per equity share in April.

Investment rationale

For an early stage venture, the IPO is stiffly valued. Bidding at the cut-off price will be prudent, as investors will remain eligible to participate even if the final offer price is fixed at a lower level. Also considering the overall competitive risks, an offer price fixed at the lower end of the price band would be more comforting.

The price-earnings multiple at the lower- and upper-end of the price band works out to 43-50 times its consolidated 2005-06 per share earnings on its existing equity base. Despite its revenues growing at a robust clip of 75-125 per cent year-on-year for the past few years, the company's price/revenues at 7-8 times are higher than the mid-cap software industry average. As it is the first player to list in the online classifieds space, there are no comparable benchmarks.

The Up side and

the flip side

The positives linked to this offer are the early mover advantage, strong brand recall, a good management team and long-standing relationships with corporates that naukri.com enjoys in the online recruitment classifieds business. Moreover, its recent move to diversify its revenue stream through a foray into marriage and real estate business is also encouraging.

On the flip side, as its financials are predominantly dependent on online recruitment, it remains exposed to high risks arising from a slowdown in the recruitment budgets of corporates and the overall demand environment, especially for IT and IT enabled services.

Secondly, the competition in the online recruitment space is hotting up through consolidation, and with entry of newer players such as Dice, its scorching growth may slow down.

Core business

The recruitment classified and related services that are being offered through naukri.com and Quadrangle (an offline executive search business) accounted for 92 per cent revenues (including other income) of Rs 84 crore for the year ended March 31. The other verticals — Jeevansathi.com and 99 acres.com — contributed about 5-6 per cent during this period.

Info Edge acquired Jeevansathi.com in September 2004 and 99acres.com was launched in September 2005. Jeevansathi.com is the third most popular website in marriage services and faces online competition from Shaadi.com and Bharatmatrimony.com.

99acres.com, however, is competing primarily with the print media, real estate brokers and online real estate classified providers.

The overall revenues have grown by 86 per cent in 2005-06 compared to 130 per cent and 115 per cent in the last two years. On account of an all-round increase in total expenditure, particularly the step-up in advertising, marketing and promotion expenses following the acquisition/launch of Jeevansathi and 99 acres, the operating margins have been in the 25-28 per cent bracket in the past couple of years (after taking into account some adjustments for employee stock option scheme).

The improvement in operating margins will hinge on the scale of marketing and branding expenses in the coming years. If the company manages to get a better bang for its marketing buck (leaving its new ventures apart), it will show up in improved margins. In turn, this will improve the bottomline, which clearly has not kept pace with growth in revenues.

The offer document also states that as of June 30 Naukri.com had a database of over six million registered job seekers, including their resumes and over 82,000 live job listings from corporate customers.

According to data available from Comscore and furnished in the offer document, in terms of the share of total traffic, Naukri.com was the most popular website among its key online recruitment competitors, such as MonsterIndia.com, JobsAhead.com and Timesjobs.com.

In July, its traffic share at 54.84 per cent (based on unique visitors and average page hits) was higher than 34.9 per cent for Monster and Jobs Ahead and 10.27 per cent for Timesjobs.

Offer details: The company plans to raise around Rs 154-170 crore through this book-built IPO. Of this, Rs 20 crore is to be utilised for diversifying into other online classifieds market such as automobile, educational and industrial products and expand the current business to West Asia and South Asia. Of the balance, Rs 25 crore is to be used for development of Jeevansathi and 99acres,

Rs 25 crore towards product enhancement and alternate delivery models such as mobiles and Rs 30 crore towards acquisitions/alliances. The lead managers to the offer are ICICI Securities and Citigroup. The offer opens on October 30 and closes on November 2.

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Larsen & Toubro
Research: Enam Securities
Recommendation: Outperformer
CMP: Rs 1,270 (Face Value Rs 2)
12-Month Price Target: Rs 1,350

Larsen & Toubro’s (L&T) Q2FY07 performance on a standalone basis was disappointing, largely due to a delay in commencement of projects and significantly higher staff cost. On a standalone basis, L&T reported revenues of Rs 3,740 crore (up 10% YoY), EBIDTA of Rs 240 crore (up 26% YoY) and adjusted PAT of Rs 180 crore (up 26%). Stellar performance of L&T Infotech overshadowed quarterly aberrations of E&C business.

The H1 FY07 consolidated revenues grew by 20% YoY to Rs 8,940 crore and adjusted profit grew by 60% to Rs 600 crore. Driven by favourable business mix towards hydrocarbon and industrial segments, EBIT margin of E&C business improved by 230 bps to 7.8% despite a flat 9% YoY growth in revenues. Higher realisation, operating efficiency and cost rationalisation led to margin expansion across businesses.

Enam estimates FY07E staff cost to increase by ~150 bps on a standalone basis. L&T InfoTech clocked impressive performance. During H1 FY07, revenues grew by 80% YoY in to Rs 620 crore, profit grew by 234% to Rs 78 crore and EBIDTA margin grew by 17.5%. In view of a strong order backlog of Rs 30,700 crore, revenue traction in H2 FY07 may pick up. Further, the margin expansion witnessed in H1 FY07 is sustainable. At current market price, the stock trades at 13x FY07E and 10x FY08E EV/ EBIDTA.

Nitco Tiles
Research: Karvy Stock Broking
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CMP: Rs 184 (Face Value Rs 10)
12-Month Price Target: Rs 222

Nitco Tiles Q2 FY07 revenues were in line with expectations and the net profit was better then the estimates due to improvement in operating margins and lower interest cost for the quarter. The company reported strong YoY growth in sales of 57.6% (QoQ growth of 10.6%) to Rs 109.3 crore against Karvy’s estimates of Rs 106.8 crore. The growth in sales was witnessed across all segments.

The marble division witnessed a robust 155% growth in gross sales, followed by 53% growth in the vitrified division. Operating profits saw a YoY growth of 65% to Rs 17 crore. Net profit increased by 47% YoY to Rs 9 crore, against Rs 6.1 crore for Q2 FY06. Iinterest cost during the quarter was lower than Q2 FY06 on account of lower debt prevailing during the quarter. The effective tax rate during the quarter was on the higher side because of higher provision of deferred tax against write-back of deferred tax in the corresponding quarter in the previous year.

Nicholas Piramal
Research: India Infoline
Recommendation: Buy
CMP: Rs 230 (Face Value Rs 2)
12-Month Price Target: NA

A strong performance in the domestic formulations market and contribution from global CRAMS business were the main drivers of 79.3% growth in topline for Nicholas Piramal India. Operating profit margin remained flat at 17.4% due to lower contribution from Avecia & Morepeth, which made a combined profit of Rs 1.6 crore. Profitability failed to keep pace with sales growth, increasing by a modest 17.5% to Rs 53.7 crore.

This translates into an annualised EPS of Rs 10.3. NPIL received Rs 17.8 crore in settlement of past claims from Boots PLC/Reckitt Benckiser India. Stripping this income and the prior period amount of Rs 10.2 crore, sales increased by 74.4%, while OPM declined by 260 bps to 15.1%. PAT grew 7.4% to
Rs 49.1 crore, translating into an annualised EPS of Rs 9.4.

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HCL Technologies
Research: Citigroup
Recommendation: Buy
CMP: Rs 634 (Face Value Rs 2)
12-Month Price Target: Rs 680

HCL Tech’s revenue grew 10.3% QoQ, ahead of the estimate. Software Services grew 9.7%, Infrastructure Services +16.6% and BPO +5.4% QoQ. EBITDA margin declined 78 bps — gross profit margin improved ~20 bps QoQ, but an increase in SG&A (+100 bps QoQ) resulted in EBITDA margin declining ~80 bps QoQ. Software margin declined by ~90 bps due to wage increases in the quarter.

Infrastructure services margins remained flat, while BPO services margins declined by ~50 bps QoQ. The management expects FY07 margins to remain at FY06 levels. HCL Tech added 3,776 employees during the quarter. Software saw a net addition of 1,611 employees, infrastructure business added 446 employees, while the BPO business added 1,769 employees during the quarter. Infrastructure services continues to be a star performer. HCL Tech trades at a 12% discount to Satyam and 35% discount to Infosys on FY08E.

Jyoti Structures
Research: Edelweiss
Recommendation: Buy
CMP: Rs 117 (Face Value Rs 2)
12-Month Price Target: NA

Jyoti Structures posted strong Q2 FY07 results, ahead of expectations in terms of revenue growth and profitability. Net revenues grew by 53% YoY to Rs 240 crore. Margins expanded by 130 bps YoY to 11.1% in Q2 FY07 on account of lower direct costs. Net profit grew by 117% YoY to Rs 11.5 crore. Net margin expanded by 140 bps to 4.7% in Q2 FY07 on account of lower tax rates.

The order book backlog at the end of Q2 was ~Rs 1,400 crore. Exports constituted ~10% of the total sales. Edelweiss believes that robust investment scenario in the transmission and distribution space may translate into high order book growth and better margins for Jyoti Structures. The outlook in the power T&D space remains encouraging. On Edelweiss’ current EPS estimates of Rs 4.3 and Rs 5.6 in FY07E and FY08E, the stock trades at 27.7x and 21.1x times FY07E and FY08E earnings, respectively.

ICICI Bank
Research: Prabhudas Lillladher
Recommendation: Outperformer
CMP: Rs 758 (Face Value Rs 10)
12-Month Price Target: NA

ICICI Bank has reported strong 57% growth in deposits to Rs 1,89,500 crore though it is marginally less than the 61% growth reported in Q1 FY07. Overall healthy growth resulted in NII rising by 47% to Rs 1,577 crore. Fee income growth at 62% is stronger than the 50% growth in Q1. Treasury income has also been higher at Rs 287 crore in Q2 compared to Rs 87.5 crore in Q1. Despite higher amortisation and NPA provisioning, healthy NII growth and strong fee income have resulted in net profit going up by 30% to Rs 755 crore.

ICICI Bank has raised a perpetual debt of $340 million abroad and Rs 783 crore in the domestic market, as well as Rs 1,255 crore as upper tier-II capital, resulting in capital adequacy increasing from 12.46% as on Q1 to 14.34% as on Q2. If Basel-II requirement is factored in, capital adequacy will increase to 14.9%. This will bring down any need for equity dilution in the near to medium term. The stock trades at 2.7x FY08ABV.

Results for Oct 30 2006

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Indiainfoline- Real Estate - Land Calling

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Merrill Lynch, Citigroup - TCS, Divi's Lab

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Anand Rathi - Castrol India

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Sharekhan Eagle Eye - Oct 30

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India Investment Strategy - Merrill Lynch

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