Sensex, Nifty hit over 4-week high as BJP leads in exit polls

Key benchmark indices edged higher as exit polls on Wednesday, 4 December 2013, predicted a strong showing for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the recently concluded assembly elections in four states viz. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi. But, the key benchmark indices gave away a portion of the initial strong gains. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, and the CNX Nifty, both, attained their highest closing levels in more than 4 weeks. The S&P BSE Sensex, fell below the psychological 21,000 mark, having alternately moved above and below that level in intraday trade. The Sensex garnered 249.10 points or 1.2%, off close to 208 points from the day's high and up close to 29 points from the day's low. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive. In the foreign exchange market, the rupee strengthened past 62 against the dollar.

Indian stocks snapped two-day losing streak today, 5 December 2013. The Sensex had lost 189.30 points, or 0.91% in two trading sessions to 20,708.71 on Wednesday, 4 December 2013, from a recent high of 20,898.01 on Monday, 2 December 2013. The Sensex has lost 165.88 points, or 0.8% in this month so far (till 5 December 2013). The Sensex has garnered 1,531.10 points or 7.88% in calendar 2013 so far (till 5 December 2013). From a 52-week low of 17,448.71 on 28 August 2013, the Sensex has risen 3,509.10 points or 20.11%. From a record high of 21,321.53 on 3 November 2013, the Sensex has fallen 363.72 points or 1.71%.

Coming back to today's trade, index heavyweight and cigarette maker ITC edged lower. Another index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) edged higher. Bank shares were in demand after a foreign brokerage upgraded target prices of select bank shares. Capital goods stocks also gained.

Indian stocks edged higher today, 5 December 2013, after exit polls on Wednesday, 4 December 2013, predicted a strong showing for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the recently concluded assembly elections in four states viz. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and New Delhi. The state elections are considered a barometer for the national elections that are scheduled to be held before the end of May 2014. BJP's prime ministerial candidate for general elections in 2014 -- Narendra Modi -- is considered a pro-business leader.

The BJP has emerged as the biggest winner in four key state elections, exit polls forecast on Wednesday, 4 December 2013, a possible blow to the ruling Congress ahead of a general election due next year. Assembly elections in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram were held over the past few weeks. The elections were marked by record high turnout in most states. Despite the gains predicted for the BJP it was unable to win a majority of seats in the capital Delhi, two polls showed. One poll suggested the race was close in Chhattisgarh. While the exact results varied from exit poll to exit poll, the general trend was clear: The ruling Congress party recorded embarrassing declines in support in Delhi as well as the western state of Rajasthan. Meanwhile voters in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh voted basically on the same lines they voted five years ago, backing the main opposition party, the BJP.

Counting of votes for assembly elections in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan takes place on Sunday, 8 December 2013. Counting of votes for assembly elections in Mizoram takes place on 9 December 2013. The results are being closely watched by markets as a potential indicator of the mood of voters in the world's biggest democracy before the 2014 general election.

The S&P BSE Sensex garnered 249.10 points or 1.20% to settle at 20,957.81, its highest closing level since 5 November 2013. The index jumped 456.89 points at the day's high of 21,165.60 in early trade, its highest leve since 3 November 2013. The index rose 220.49 points at the day's low of 20,929.20 in mid-afternoon trade.

The CNX Nifty jumped 80.15 points or 1.3% to settle at 6,241.10, its highest closing level since 5 November 2013. The index hit a high of 6,300.55 in intraday trade. The index hit a low of 6,232 in intraday trade.

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.13% and the BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.39%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive. On BSE, 1,269 shares gained and 1,247 shares fell. A total of 167 shares were unchanged.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 2079 crore, higher than Rs 1973.77 crore on Wednesday, 4 December 2013.

The S&P BSE Bankex (up 4.44%), the S&P BSE Capital Goods index (up 3.59%), the S&P BSE PSU index (up 1.51%), the S&P BSE Realty index (up 1.48%), the S&P BSE Power index (up 1.33%) and the S&P BSE Oil & Gas index (up 1.25%), outperformed the BSE Sensex.

The S&P BSE Healthcare index (down 1.47%), the S&P BSE FMCG index (down 0.94%), the S&P BSE IT index (down 0.51%), the S&P BSE Teck index (down 0.36%), the S&P BSE Auto index (up 0.37%), the S&P BSE Consumer Durables index (up 0.38%) and the S&P BSE Metal index (up 1.11%), underperformed the BSE Sensex.

From 30-share Sensex pack, 20 stocks rose and rest fell.

Index heavyweight and cigarette maker ITC shed 1.39% at Rs 308.90. The scrip hit high of Rs 318.05 and low of Rs 307.80.

Another index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) gained 1.58%. RIL is currently producing about 10 million standard cubic metres per day (mscmd) of gas from the Krishna-Godavari basin's D6 block, off India's east coast, B. Ganguly, chief operating officer of its exploration and production business, told reporters. The current output is sharply lower from the 60 mscmd production at the end of 2010, and RIL and partner BP (BP.L) have cited geological complexities for the fall in output. The falling output has prompted the government to disallow proportionate cost recovery to RIL, leading to arbitration proceedings over the issue. The finance ministry has also asked for gas prices for RIL to be capped because it's gas production from the block is far below its supply commitment.

Bank shares were in demand after a foreign brokerage upgraded target prices of select bank shares. ICICI Bank (up 6.66%), Yes Bank (up 6.33%), Canara Bank (up 5.75%), HDFC Bank (up 4.52%), Union Bank of India (up 3.80%), Bank of Baroda (up 3.58%), IndusInd Bank (up 3.14%), IDBI Bank (up 3.05%), Bank of India (up 2.64%), Punjab National Bank (up 2.20%), State Bank of India (up 1.87%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 1.67%) and Federal Bank (up 0.77%), edged higher.

The brokerage increased Bank of Baroda's target price to Rs 775 from Rs 645 and for Kotak Mahindra Bank, the target was raised to Rs 790 from Rs 762. SBI's target price was increased to Rs 2,200 from Rs 1,933. ICICI Bank's target price was raised to Rs 1,290 from Rs 1,250.

AXIS Bank rose 4.33% to Rs 1,241.20. In its clarification to a news report that the private sector bank has initiated discussions for selling its network of credit and debit card swipe machines business, AXIS Bank today, 5 December 2013, said that the bank evaluates opportunities for various strategic initiatives on an ongoing basis. As and when any of these discussions fructify, the bank will make suitable announcements to the stock exchanges, it said. The news report said that three global payment processing giants, Global Payments, WorldPay and Total System Services (TSYS), are bidding for AXIS Bank's network of more than two lakh credit and debit card swipe machines business valued at Rs 1200 crore.

Adani Group shares rose after exit polls predicted a strong showing for the key opposition Bharatiya Janata Party in state elections held since November. Adani Group is based in Gujarat, where BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is chief minister. Because of the location and perceptions of close ties between Adani and the BJP, shares of the Adani Group can at times move depending on the perceptions of electoral success for the party. Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (up 3.62%), Adani Power (up 2.89%) and Adani Enterprises (up 0.99%), gained.

Symphony lost 2.09% as the stock turned ex-dividend today, 5 December 2013, for dividend of Rs 6.50 per share for the year ended 30 June 2013.

Shares of Pfizer and Wyeth dropped on turning ex-dividend today, 5 December 2013, for liberal interim dividends. Wyeth (down 16.39%), and Pfizer (down 24.75%) slumped.

Pfizer had declared an interim dividend of Rs 360 per share to its shareholders and Wyeth had declared an interim dividend of Rs 145 per share. The record date for the dividend payment has been set at 6 December 2013 by both the companies. The announcement of highly liberal interim dividends was after the boards of Pfizer and Wyeth approved the merger between the two pharmaceutical companies on 23 November 2013.

Before turning ex-dividend, Pfizer offered a dividend yield of 21.04% based on the closing price of Rs 1710.60 on Wednesday, 4 December 2013.

Before turning ex-dividend, Wyeth offered a dividend yield of 14.61% based on the closing price of Rs 992.80 on Wednesday, 4 December 2013.

As per the merger scheme, shareholders of Wyeth will get seven Pfizer shares for every 10 shares held. The appointed date of the merger scheme would be 1 April 2013. The merged entity will create a single brand of Pfizer.

In the international market, Pfizer acquired Wyeth in 2009. The global merger of these companies was completed by the end of the same year except certain countries, including India. The valuation of equity swap and regulatory hurdles for the merger of two listed entities were the main reason for the delayed decision for the consolidation of these companies in India.

Jubilant Life Sciences hit a lower circuit limit of 9.96% at Rs 126.05 after the firm said that one of its manufacturing facilities, Jubilant HollisterStier, LLC in the United States has been issued a warning letter by US Food and Drug Administration. The announcement was made during trading hours today, 5 December 2013.

Jubilant Life Sciences (JLL) said that as required by the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA), JHS-Spokane will respond to the warning letter from USFDA on or before 12 December 2013. The response will identify corrective actions already been completed as well as some pending corrective actions to ensure on-going cGMP compliance, the company said in a statement.

JLL said that USFDA specified in the warning letter that until all corrections have been completed and that they have confirmed correction of the violations and firm compliance to cGMPs, USFDA may withhold approval of new applications or supplements listing JHS-Spokane as the drug product manufacturer.

JLL said it expects that the on-going manufacturing, distribution and sale of products from this facility will not be impacted as the warning letter will affect new approvals only. JHS-Spokane is committed to implementing the necessary corrective actions required to address the FDA concerns, and will work closely with the USFDA to bring resolution to this matter, the company said.

During first half of FY 2014, the contract manufacturing operations at JHS-Spokane contributed 7% to consolidated sales and 4% to consolidated EBITDA of JLL, the company said in a statement.

Strides Arcolab tumbled 14.50% after the company said it has completed sale of its Agila Specialties Division to Mylan Inc. for a total consideration of up to $1.75 billion. Strides Arcolab said that since the initial announcement of transaction pertaining to the sale of its Agila Specialties Division, the company's board of directors approved final transaction terms to include a hold back of $250 million contingent upon satisfaction of certain regulatory conditions. Consequent to the warning letter received by the company for one of its units in Bangalore, Strides has agreed to a hold back of $250 million, which will be contingent upon satisfaction of certain regulatory conditions related to the injectable facilities in India. The company expects those contingent conditions will be satisfied sometime in 2014.

Since the initial announcement of this transaction, Strides now expects an additional expenditure of $150 million. This includes cost towards acquisition of additional assets from its erstwhile partners and an estimated remediation cost related to its regulatory commitments post the warning letter.

Strides Arcolab also said that a meeting of the Board of Directors of the company will be held on 10 December 2013 to consider declaration of special dividend.

ICRA rose 1.28%. ICRA Management Consulting Services (IMaCS) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc. have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to collaborate in providing consulting services to the transportation sector in India, across Asia, and in Africa. IMaCS and Cambridge Systematics will offer a broad mix of consulting services to public and private sector clients in the transportation sector. The announcement was made during trading hours.

Cambridge Systematics, founded in 1972, is a global transportation consulting and technology solutions provider headquartered in the United States. IMaCS, a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICRA, is a policy and strategy consulting firm headquartered in India with an operating footprint across 45 countries, principally across Asia, Africa and Europe. IMaCS has expertise in financial services, transportation, energy, urban and social infrastructure and manufacturing sector.

Capital goods stocks also gained. ABB (up 4.67%), Larsen & Toubro (up 4.49%), Crompton Greaves (up 4.10%), Bhel (up 3.93%), BEML (up 2.94%), Punj Lloyd (up 2.89%), Siemens (up 2.46%), Jindal Saw (up 2.08%), Praj Industries (up 1.50%), Havells India (up 0.33%), Pipavav Defence & Offshore Engineering Company (up 0.22%) and AIA Engineering (up 0.18%), edged higher.

Shares of state-run Power Grid Corporation (PGCIL) rose 0.63% to Rs 96.15. The company's follow-on public offer (FPO) was subscribed 4.72 times by 16:00 IST on the last day of the bidding for the FPO by institutional investors today, 5 December 2013. The FPO received bids for 371.24 crore shares till 16:00 IST today, 5 December 2013, compared with 78.70 crore shares on offer, as per NSE data.

The FPO closes tomorrow, 6 December 2013, for retail investors and employees of the company. The price band for the FPO has been set at Rs 85 to Rs 90 per share. A discount of Rs 4.50 per share on the final issue price discovered through the book-building route will be available to retail investors and eligible employees of the company.

PGCIL is issuing a total of 78.70 crore shares through the FPO, which includes 60.18 crore fresh equity shares and disinvestment by the Government of India (GoI) of 18.51 crore equity shares held by the President of India, acting through the Ministry of Power. After the successful divestment, GoI's holding in PGCIL will come down to 57.89% from the present level of 69.42%.

PGCIL, a navaratna public sector undertaking under the ministry of power, is the country's central transmission utility (CTU). The company owns and operates more than 90% of India's inter-state and interregional electric power transmission systems (ISTS). As principal electric power-transmission company of the country, it owns and operates 102109 circuit kilometers of electrical transmission lines and 172 electrical substations with a total transformation capacity of 172378 MVA as end of Sep 30, 2013.

Shares of realty major Unitech edged higher in choppy trade after the company issued a clarification with regard to news reports that the company defaulted on the payment of interest on a Rs 200-crore loan it had taken from the Life Insurance Corporation (LIC). The stock rose 0.96% at Rs 15.80. The scrip hit high of Rs 16.40 and low of Rs 15.50. Unitech during trading hours today, 5 December 2013, said that due to its confidentiality agreement with the lender, the company cannot comment on the specifics of the media reports. However, the company's financial results for the relevant quarter will reflect no pendency with the said lender, Unitech said. The realty major also said it does not have any exposure to LIC Housing Finance. Shares of Unitech had tumbled 9.53% to settle at Rs 15.65 on Wednesday, 4 December 2013, on reports that the company defaulted on interest payment to LIC.

ICICI Bank clocked a highest turnover of Rs 89.84 crore on BSE. Yes Bank (Rs 76.88 crore), Stride Arcolab (Rs 58.69 crore), State Bank of India (Rs 56.85 crore) and L&T (Rs 50.68 crore), were the other turnover toppers on BSE in that order.

IVRCL reported highest volumes of 88.39 shares on BSE. Unitech (81.92 lakh shares), Cals Refineries (42.92 lakh shares), Adani Power (36.75 lakh shares) and GVK Power & Infrastructure (32.15 lakh shares), were the other volume toppers on BSE in that order.

Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service has said that its outlook for Indian non-financial corporates is negative, reflecting macroeconomic challenges over the next 12 months. Moody's also expects heightened expectation of a scale back of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve in 2014 to keep the rupee volatile, making the operating environment more challenging for importers and exporters. Moody's conclusions were contained in a just-released report titled, "2014 Outlook -- India Non-Financial Corporates, Weak Economy, Political Uncertainty and Quantitative-Easing Scale Back Are Biggest Risks".

Companies will also face higher borrowing costs and tight funding conditions with monetary policy likely to remain tight, the report says. Moody's could move to a stable outlook if its GDP growth expectations exceed 6%, the rupee stabilizes -- such that one-year volatility falls below 5% -- and a development and reform-focused government is formed with a strong majority after general elections in 2014.

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged higher against the dollar after exit polls on Wednesday, 4 December 2013, predicted a strong showing for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the recently concluded assembly elections in four states viz. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and New Delhi. The state elections are considered a barometer for the national elections that are scheduled to be held before the end of May 2014. BJP's prime ministerial candidate for general elections in 2014 -- Narendra Modi -- is considered a pro-business leader. The partially convertible rupee was currently hovering at 61.77, compared with its close of 62.05/06 on Wednesday, 4 December 2013.

On macro front, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announces next Mid-Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2013-14 on 18 December 2013. The Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2013-14 is scheduled 28 January 2014.

Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service has said in an update on the Indian economy that the outcome of the next general election could impact growth depending on the impact on policies and sentiments. Simultaneously, the agency which expects the Indian economy to pose a slow recovery only in the second half of 2014, has also reiterated the stable outlook for India's rating. "Moody's expects a slow economic recovery in the second half of 2014, if global growth increases while domestic inflation and interest rates decline", the agency said. Moody's added that India's investment climate and competitiveness indicators are weaker than those of similarly rated countries. "Although there have been policy efforts to induce investment in the last year, their impact may not be evident in the near term," it said.

Moody's said that downward pressure on the rating could develop if the medium-term growth and fiscal outlook weaken further; or if there is a decline in the foreign exchange reserves or the asset quality of state-owned banks or if high inflation persists, damaging the fiscal, growth and balance of payments outlook. The agency sounded a note of caution on the country's fiscal deficit saying that a low base limits the revenue-collection capacity of the government.

European stocks edged lower in choppy trade on Thursday, 5 December 2013, before interest-rate decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Key benchmark indices in France and UK were off 0.07% to 0.08%. However, Germany's DAX was up 0.05%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) holds its monthly monetary policy meeting today, 5 December 2013. The ECB unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percentage point last month to a record-low 0.25% after inflation slowed in October to the least in four years.

UK's central bank -- Bank of England -- is expected to keep its key policy rate steady at 0.5% after a monetary policy review today, 5 December 2013.

Asian stocks declined on Thursday, 5 December 2013, as better-than-expected US jobs data fueled concern that the Federal Reserve will reduce its monthly bond purchases sooner than forecast. Key benchmark indices in Indonesia, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, China and Taiwan shed 0.07% to 1.50%. Fed's bond-buying program has been a source of liquidity for most Asian and emerging markets this year.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's cabinet approved a $182 billion economic package on Thursday to pull the economy out of deflation, but doubts remain about the economic impact. The package has a headline value of 18.6 trillion yen, which is an exaggerated figure as the bulk of the package includes loans from government-backed lenders and spending by local governments that was already scheduled. The core of the package is 5.5 trillion yen in spending measures Abe ordered in October to bolster the economy ahead of a national sales-tax hike in April, and the government does not have to sell new debt to fund this spending. The measures approved on Thursday will add 1 percentage point to gross domestic product and create around 250,000 jobs, according to the Cabinet Office. The steps approved on Thursday include measures to boost competitiveness; assist women, youth and the elderly; accelerate reconstruction from the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami; and build infrastructure for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow may could slide 11 points at opening bell on Thursday, 5 December 2013. US stocks fell a fourth day on Wednesday, the longest slump in 10 weeks for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as investors weighed economic data for clues on the timing of Federal Reserve stimulus cuts amid optimism over a budget deal.

Data showed companies boosted payrolls in November by the most in a year. US companies added 215,000 jobs in November, topping estimates, a private survey showed yesterday. A separate report indicated service industries in the US expanded at a slower pace than forecast in November, showing uneven progress in the biggest part of the economy. Purchases of new US homes surged in October by the most in three decades, signaling buyers are starting to take higher mortgage rates in stride.

Investors are keeping a close watch on economic data in the United States as the Federal Reserve monitors the pace of recovery to gauge when it will begin to reduce monetary stimulus for the US economy, which has been aimed at encouraging growth. The US government will release the influential US non-farm payrolls data for November 2013 tomorrow, 6 December 2013. The Fed has said improvement in the labor market is a key factor in its policy assessment.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds a two-day policy meeting on interest rates in the United States on 17-18 December 2013. The US central bank currently buys bonds worth $85 billion a month in a bid to hold interest rates low and encourage economic growth in the world's biggest economy. Minutes of the Fed's October meeting released on 20 November 2013 showed officials may reduce their $85 billion a month of bond buying if the economy improves as anticipated.