Dark and dreary

"Into each life some rain must fall, some days must be dark and dreary." - Henry Longfellow. It’s not the brightest of days in Mumbai though the rains sure are more than welcome. The start for the market isn’t bright either. The monsoon session of parliament is likely to be a washout, with the BJP not in any mood to relent on its tough stance on the CAG reports. So, brace for a continued war of words between the UPA and BJP leaders on the coal block allocation controversy. A deadlocked parliament and a belligerent BJP mean no meaningful progress on pending reforms like diesel price hike and FDI in multi-brand retail. Markets will be disappointed, as the recent run-up has been fueled by expectations of positive movement on reforms. FII flows have been pretty robust this month but may not sustain in the absence of reforms. F&O expiry on Thursday will be the first of the major events that might have some bearing on the market sentiment. It will be followed by Q1 FY13 GDP data, core sector statistics and fiscal deficit numbers on Friday. Globally, markets will await more clues on the Eurozone debt crisis and possible hints on more monetary stimulus from leading central banks. Ben S. Bernanke's annual speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyo. will be closely watched for QE3 hints. The key Indian stock indices have completed a four-week winning streak, with the NSE Nifty closing above the multi-year trend resistance of 5370 despite negative global cues. The underlying bias will stay positive as long as the Nifty is able to sustain above 5370. Trend in global markets along with movement in USD-INR would be among he key factors to keep on one's radar during the week. Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 2.26bn in the cash segment on Friday while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers of Rs 3.56bn, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE. The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 418.6mn in the F&O segment on Friday, according to the provisional NSE data. The foreign funds were net buyers of Rs 3.96bn in the cash segment on Thursday and the mutual funds were net sellers of Rs 138mn on the same day, according to the SEBI figures. Global Data Watch today: UK Summer Bank Holiday, Japan machine tool orders, Germany Import Price Index (Jul), Germany IFO Business Climate (Aug), Germany IFO Current Assessment (Aug), Germany IFO Expectations (Aug), UK Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) (Aug), ECB's Asmussen Speaks, Fed's Evans Speaks, US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Aug) and US FOMC Member Pianalto's speech.