Weather it out

We'll weather the weather, Whatever the weather, Whether we like it or not – Anonymous. The raingods seem to be in a rather uncharitable mood this year if the shaky start to the southwest monsoon is anything to go by. Brace for some rougher ride on the bourses if monsoon doesn’t look up in the next few days. After all, monsoon is likely to be the biggest headache in the near term, be it for the Government, farmers, consumers or companies. July is supposed to be a crucial month for various summer crops (kharif). A normal southwest monsoon also helps in the winter farming season (rabi) as it builds up the reservoirs across the nation. For the day we are expecting a cautiously optimistic start as domestic macro-economic headwinds are negating the positive vibes set off by the EU summit. Asian markets are mostly steady despite weak Chinese manufacturing PMI data. Markets are shut in Hong Kong today. US stocks rallied on Friday, along with their European counterparts in the wake of the EU summit. Markets across the world will focus on the latest manufacturing PMI data, along with the ECB policy meeting and US jobs report. US markets will be shut on Wednesday for Independence Day. Auto and cement stocks will be in focus today as investors react to latest monthly sales numbers. The Nifty broke the 5080-5200 trading range after three weeks. The breakout point of 5200 could turn into a strong support. Data on IIP, inflation, corporate earnings and the RBI's month-end policy meeting will drive the sentiment all through July. Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 30.46bn in the cash segment on Friday. Some of this FII buying was due to the block deal in Cairn India. The domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers of Rs 2.50bn, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE. The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 21.60bn in the F&O segment on Thursday, according to the provisional NSE data. The foreign funds were net sellers of Rs 6.94bn in the cash segment on Thursday and the mutual funds were net buyers of Rs 3.52bn on the same day, according to the SEBI figures. Global Data Watch today: Japan Tankan large manufacturers' survey, Japan vehicle sales, HSBC China manufacturing PMI, UK Halifax house prices, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI, Eurozone unemployment report, US ISM manufacturing PMI, US construction spending and FOMC Member Williams' speech.