Is Dollar heading for a big fall?

In what could only be described as a move “from the frying pan to the fire”, one of the consequences of the European crisis has been the increased demand for the Greenback. We have witnessed the dollar index strengthening to 82-plus, with a corresponding decline in commodities like gold and oil. Most currencies also declined in this period—the Aussie and Canadian dollars declined from 1.1-plus levels to parity or less and we have had similar percentage declines with other currencies as well. To that extent, the decline in the exchange rates of the INR (Indian rupee) vis-à-vis the USD was not entirely based on fundamentals and we should witness a return to sub-50 levels over the course of this year.

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