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Thursday, June 21, 2012

Twisting and turning


What separates the winners from the losers is how a person reacts to each new twist of fate. - Donald Trump. The Federal Reserve may not have delivered a QE3 but the so-called "Operation Twist" plan - aimed at keeping rates low - has been extended to the end of the year. It was due to end this month. On the flip side, the Fed has scaled down its projections of GDP growth and inflation while warning that unemployment will stay largely elevated. US markets closed virtually flat at the end of a choppy session. European markets were encouraged by Bank of England minutes that showed that some of the policymakers were inclined to consider fresh QE. There were also reports that the eurozone bailout fund could be used to buy bonds of troubled members. The same were denied later. We expect a cautious opening. Asian markets are mostly in the red. Also, the preliminary HSBC China manufacturing PMI for June has dropped vs. final May reading. The sentiment will continued to be driven by a combination of domestic and external factors. The main indices will remain choppy and rangebound in the near term. Key Results Today: Indraprastha Gas, Bharat Electronics. Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 1.19bn in the cash segment on Wednesday while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of Rs 435.6mn, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE. The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 6.24bn in the F&O segment on Wednesday, according to the provisional NSE data. The foreign funds were net buyers of Rs 1.42bn in the cash segment on Tuesday and the mutual funds were net sellers of Rs122mn in the cash segment on the same day, according to the SEBI figures. Global Data Watch today: Japan Parliament votes new BOJ authorities, Australia RBA Bulletin (Q2), Australia RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (May), China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jun), EU EcoFin Meeting, EU ECB Mid-Month Meeting, EU provisional Manufacturing PMI (Jun), EU provisional Services PMI (Jun), EU Current Account (Apr), EU Consumer Confidence (Jun), EU consumer confidence, Germany provisional Manufacturing PMI (Jun), Germany provisional Services PMI (Jun), UK Retail Sales (May), UK CBI Industrial Trades Survey – Orders (Jun), UK 10-year Bond Auction, US Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 16), US Markit provisional Manufacturing PMI (Jun), US Existing Home Sales (May), US Housing Price Index (Apr), US Leading Indicators (May) and US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Jun).