Monsoon likely to be normal again: IMD

The country will have normal monsoon this year. Releasing the initial Long Range Forecast for the coming June to September period, Union Minister for Science & Technology and Earth Sciences, Pawan Kumar Bansal said, "The rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be normal i.e. 96-104% of Long Period Average (LPA).

There is very low probability for season rainfall to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) or excess (above 110% of LPA). Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 98% of the LPA with a model error of + 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm, he said.



This was the first stage of the forecast strategy by India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the second stage forecast will be done in June. Along with the update forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall and seasonal (June-September) rainfall during the second half of the season (August + September) will be issued in July and that for September will be issued in August.

The LPA of the southwest monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

The La Nina conditions have weakened to weak to moderate strength as of mid-March. The latest forecasts from a majority of the dynamical and statistical models indicate strong probability for the present La Nina conditions continuing till June. Subsequently the La Nina conditions are expected to weaken further.