Avoid big-ticket trades for now

The markets opened on a shaky note and ended with widespread losses on the back of weak overseas cues. Traded volumes were subdued compared with the previous session.

The market breadth was marginally negative as the BSE & NSE combined advance decline ratio was at 1700 : 1968.

The capitalisation of the breadth too was weak as the combined exchange figures were Rs 7000 crore : Rs 6817 crore. The derivatives data for the previous session indicated a 1.79 per cent increase in net long positions as the bulls continued to ramp up longs ahead of the June expiry.

The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday band and lower traded volumes are indicating a truncated retail participation. The 4255 critical support advocated yesterday held as the Nifty bounced exactly from that juncture.

That validates our price retracement / extension counts and enables a extrapolation of an intraday band of 4288 / 4240 on advances and declines respectively for Thursday.

A breakout / breakdown beyond these parameters is likely to be an indicator of near-term trends. Expiry days are largely anti-climatic in nature as a majority of rollovers / squaring up is completed in the previous session itself. Watch the traded volumes and open interest for signs of commitment of traders.

The outlook for Thursday is that of guarded optimism as global cues will play a bigger part than the domestic triggers as the expiry session will be largely governed by demand supply forces.

I maintain my view that big-ticket trades should be avoided for now. Medium / long term players may initiate long positions in Reliance Petroleum as the charts have witnessed a breakout.